Nigeria’s Climate Agenda: New Directions in Policy and Diplomacy

Nigeria's climate agenda is hampered by overlapping institutions and a lack of elite consensus, which diminishes its bargaining power internationally. While the Tinubu administration has attempted to centralize governance through the Office of the Special Presidential Envoy on Climate (OSPEC) and the Presidential Climate Action Committee (PCAC), these moves risk further fragmentation by sidelining statutory bodies like the National Council on Climate Change (NCCC). Externally, Nigeria faces declining oil exports to China and India and increased competition from the US in European markets, intensifying the need for a successful energy transition. The report highlights a trend of International Oil Companies (IOCs) divesting from onshore assets due to regulatory instability, while noting that agile local firms are better positioned to navigate domestic complexities.

• Nigeria's ability to secure favorable terms in climate negotiations is constrained by internal institutional competition and fragmented responsibilities across ministries including energy, environment, finance, and foreign affairs.
• The Tinubu administration has shifted toward centralized climate governance by creating the Office of the Special Presidential Envoy on Climate (OSPEC) and the Presidential Climate Action Committee (PCAC), though these bodies may duplicate the roles of the National Council on Climate Change (NCCC).
• Nigeria's traditional oil export markets are shifting; Chinese imports of Nigerian crude oil dropped 61% between 2019-2022, and exports to India fell from approximately 250,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 120,000 bpd due to the war in Ukraine.
• International Oil Companies (IOCs) are divesting from Nigerian onshore assets, driven by regulatory uncertainty and a global shift toward renewables; for example, TotalEnergies redirected a $6 billion investment from Nigeria to Angola.
• Climate change is a driver of insecurity and political instability in the Sahel region, where temperature increases are expected to be 1.5 times greater than the world average, contributing to coup d’états in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.

APA

Animashaun, N. (2025). Nigeria’s Climate Agenda: New Directions in Policy and Diplomacy. Africa Policy Research Institute. https://afripoli.org/nigerias-climate-agenda-new-directions-in-policy-and-diplomacy

Chicago

Animashaun, Najim. Nigeria’s Climate Agenda: New Directions in Policy and Diplomacy. Africa Policy Research Institute, 2025. https://afripoli.org/nigerias-climate-agenda-new-directions-in-policy-and-diplomacy.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Animashaun |first1=Najim |title=Nigeria’s Climate Agenda: New Directions in Policy and Diplomacy |publisher=Africa Policy Research Institute |date=29 October 2025 |url=https://afripoli.org/nigerias-climate-agenda-new-directions-in-policy-and-diplomacy |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{animashaun2025nigerias, author = {Animashaun, Najim}, title = {{Nigeria’s Climate Agenda: New Directions in Policy and Diplomacy}}, institution = {Africa Policy Research Institute}, year = {2025}, month = oct, url = {https://afripoli.org/nigerias-climate-agenda-new-directions-in-policy-and-diplomacy}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }