Nigeria’s Climate Agenda: New Directions in Policy and Diplomacy

This research paper analyzes Nigeria's climate policy and diplomacy, arguing that while the country has established a comprehensive policy architecture, its effectiveness is severely hampered by institutional fragmentation, inter-ministerial competition, and a lack of elite consensus. The author examines the shift toward centralized governance under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the challenges of aligning domestic petroleum interests with global energy transition goals.

• Nigeria's climate policy is undermined by institutional fragmentation and a lack of coordination among government entities, which diminishes its bargaining power in international negotiations. This 'lack of collective agency' is mirrored in other sectors, such as the five-year delay in Nigeria joining the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the BRICS Group due to poor inter-ministerial coordination.
• The administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has attempted to centralize climate governance by creating the Office of the Special Presidential Envoy on Climate (OSPEC) and the Presidential Climate Action Committee (PCAC). However, these bodies risk duplicating the roles of existing institutions like the National Council on Climate Change (NCCC) and may prioritize private sector-adjacent 'policy entrepreneurs' over formal statutory bodies.
• Global shifts in oil markets and the war in Ukraine have negatively impacted Nigeria's traditional export markets. Chinese imports of Nigerian crude oil dropped by 61% between 2019 and 2022, and exports to India fell from approximately 250,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 120,000 bpd, partly because India increased imports from Russia.
• International Oil Companies (IOCs) are increasingly divesting from onshore assets in Nigeria, driven by regulatory uncertainty, security concerns, and the global shift toward renewables. For example, TotalEnergies redirected a $6 billion investment from Nigeria to Angola, citing an "unpredictable legal and regulatory environment."
• Climate change is a primary driver of insecurity and political instability in the Sahel region, which includes Chad, Niger, and Mali. These three countries are among the top seven most vulnerable globally to climate change, with the region expected to see temperature increases 1.5 times the world average.
• The author argues that Nigeria's adoption of foreign climate governance models, such as those from the UK and US, is often a 'transplanting' process that fails to account for the local context. This results in hybrid institutions with expanded mandates but insufficient technical resources, which dilutes the effectiveness of climate action.

APA

Animashaun, N. (2025). Nigeria’s Climate Agenda: New Directions in Policy and Diplomacy. Africa Policy Research Institute. https://afripoli.org/nigerias-climate-agenda-new-directions-in-policy-and-diplomacy

Chicago

Animashaun, Najim. Nigeria’s Climate Agenda: New Directions in Policy and Diplomacy. Africa Policy Research Institute, 2025. https://afripoli.org/nigerias-climate-agenda-new-directions-in-policy-and-diplomacy.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Animashaun |first1=Najim |title=Nigeria’s Climate Agenda: New Directions in Policy and Diplomacy |publisher=Africa Policy Research Institute |date=29 October 2025 |url=https://afripoli.org/nigerias-climate-agenda-new-directions-in-policy-and-diplomacy |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{animashaun2025nigerias, author = {Animashaun, Najim}, title = {{Nigeria’s Climate Agenda: New Directions in Policy and Diplomacy}}, institution = {Africa Policy Research Institute}, year = {2025}, month = oct, url = {https://afripoli.org/nigerias-climate-agenda-new-directions-in-policy-and-diplomacy}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }