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The report finds that while renewable energy investment is growing, continued funding for fossil fuel power plants and the presence of 'locked-in' emissions from existing assets keep the global power sector on a temperature trajectory exceeding 3.2°C. It highlights a significant gap between actual 2018 investment carbon intensities and the negative thresholds required by 2030 to achieve Paris alignment. The analysis identifies specific misalignments among major economies like China, India, and Japan, and among financial actors such as commercial banks and export credit agencies. The document recommends halting new carbon-intensive investments, accelerating the retirement of existing fossil fuel plants, and harmonizing climate risk reporting.

The report asserts that 'business as usual' is an unsustainable strategy for industrial sectors, as over 40 percent of annual greenhouse gas emissions originate from energy-intensive industries. It warns that failure to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 threatens the global economy with supply chain disruptions and value destruction for major commodities. The author argues that achieving a 1.5°C pathway requires not only technological shifts—such as the adoption of hydrogen and carbon capture—but also a reduction in the demand for materials like steel, cement, and plastic. The text emphasizes that an orderly transition is preferable to disruptive 'black swan' events and notes a shifting balance of market power away from fossil fuel industries toward climate-aligned corporations.

The author calls on energy ministers attending the IEA Clean Energy Transitions Summit to allocate global stimulus funds toward a sustainable recovery. The text advocates for the IEA's Sustainable Recovery Plan and specific policy targets, such as phasing out coal by 2040 and ending fossil fuel subsidies by 2025, while highlighting the potential for significant job creation and the growing corporate and public support for a green transition.

The report finds that 1.61 billion children lived in conflict-affected countries in 2019, with 426 million residing in specific conflict zones (within 50 km of fighting). Africa has the highest absolute number of affected children, while the Middle East has the highest proportional share. The number of children in conflict zones has generally increased since the 1990s, with millions exposed to continuous conflict throughout their childhood.

The authors highlight the accuracy of previous intelligence warnings regarding pandemics to argue that similar foresight must be applied to climate change. They assert that unabated climate change will trigger global instability through food and water insecurity, mass migration, increased international tensions, and high-impact 'wildcard' events, necessitating a move toward net-zero emissions to protect global security.

The author contends that the European Green Deal should not be treated as a separate environmental policy but as a geopolitical tool. By diversifying its economy and leading in clean technologies, the EU can reduce its vulnerability to pressure from the US and China and decrease its reliance on fossil fuel imports from authoritarian regimes. The text emphasizes that the transition must also address the stability of oil-dependent regions in the Middle East and North Africa and prevent internal EU divisions between East and West to avoid external interference.

The European Union views the transition to renewable energy as a path toward energy security and industrial power, yet it faces significant strategic hurdles. Internally, the EU lacks a unified vision for its future integrated energy system, leading to risks of redundant spending and a 'multi-speed' transition where Western and Eastern member states have diverging interests. Externally, the shift creates new dependencies on critical materials and intensifies industrial rivalry with the US and China. The author suggests that the EU must move beyond a purely economic approach to a comprehensive industrial and political strategy, potentially supported by the Green Deal and the Just Transition Fund, to ensure long-term stability and competitiveness.

The report evaluates global security threats under two warming scenarios: a 'Near Term' scenario (1-2°C) and a 'Medium-Long Term' scenario (2-4+°C). It concludes that even low levels of warming present high to very high risks, while higher warming levels pose catastrophic and potentially irreversible threats to global stability. The analysis is structured around U.S. Geographic Combatant Command areas, detailing how climate-induced physical shocks and social tensions act as threat multipliers that can lead to state failure, resource conflict, and the breakdown of international alliances.

The document examines the impact of COVID-19-related food export restrictions on vulnerable importing nations. It identifies high-risk areas in Central Asia, North Africa, the Middle East, and sub-Saharan Africa, noting that many affected countries already suffer from high undernourishment and calorie production deficits. The authors argue that because global food stocks remain plentiful, countries should refrain from banning staple food exports to prevent hunger and potential famines.

The analysis of 19 NAPs reveals that while all reviewed documents integrate ecosystem considerations and vulnerabilities, the explicit link between ecosystem services and societal adaptation benefits remains generic. Latin American countries show the strongest integration of EbA and links to biodiversity strategies. Key gaps include limited monitoring of outcomes, insufficient private sector engagement, and under-representation of urban EbA and hybrid grey/green infrastructure. The report suggests that NAPs should move beyond business-as-usual conservation to explicitly address climate hazards and target specific vulnerable groups.

The analysis of 19 National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) reveals that while most countries recognize ecosystem vulnerability and include some EbA measures, these are often generic and lack explicit links to specific climate risks or measurable outcomes. Latin American countries show the strongest integration of EbA and biodiversity strategies. Significant gaps exist in urban EbA, private sector involvement, and the identification of financial resources, suggesting a need for more SMART objectives and intersectoral integration to enhance human and ecological resilience.

The report identifies that 1.02 billion people among the rural and urban poor across 54 high-impact countries remain at high risk due to a lack of access to cooling in 2020. It highlights a 'productivity penalty' where heat stress is estimated to cause an annual economic loss of USD 630 billion across these countries, with significant impacts on the agricultural sector. The document also examines how the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated these vulnerabilities, particularly regarding the medical cold chain for vaccines and food security. To address these challenges, it proposes a sustainable cooling framework based on three needs (comfort & safety, food & nutrition, health & care), five solution approaches (protect, reduce, shift, improve, leverage), and four solution pillars (technology, services, policy, financial).

The report analyzes how the AKP government has shifted Turkish foreign policy toward a more proactive, ideologically driven approach that leverages historical, cultural, and religious ties to expand regional influence. It examines the role of institutions like the Presidency for Turks Abroad and Related Communities (YTB) and the Diyanet in managing these relations. Through case studies in Bulgaria, Germany, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Greece, Cyprus, and Palestine, the document illustrates how this 'kin-state' politics often leads to the instrumentalization of religion, the exportation of domestic political conflicts, and tensions with host countries, while sometimes being perceived by the target communities as paternalistic or colonizing.

The paper argues that government-led adaptation is insufficient and that individuals and households must be actively involved to reduce climate risks. It identifies six categories of adaptive behavior—information seeking, preparative measures, protective measures, evacuation/migration, insurance, and political action—and analyzes the psychological drivers of these actions. Key motivators include risk perception, negative emotions, self-efficacy, outcome efficacy, social norms, and perceived responsibility. The authors conclude that while communication campaigns are common, they are often ineffective if they only provide information; instead, they should target psychological antecedents. Furthermore, the paper advocates for genuine public participation in decision-making to empower citizens and improve policy effectiveness, while noting that individual action must be supported by systemic, large-scale governmental infrastructure.

Egypt is advancing its nuclear energy sector, primarily through the El Dabaa plant project with Russian support, to meet growing electricity demands and reduce fossil fuel dependence. However, this expansion occurs against a backdrop of domestic political consolidation, regional instability in Libya and Sudan, and severe climate risks. The Nile Delta is particularly vulnerable to sea level rise and saltwater intrusion, which could threaten coastal nuclear infrastructure and destabilize the economy. The report urges the U.S. to renew its leadership in nuclear nonproliferation and encourages Egypt to integrate comprehensive climate security assessments into its nuclear planning.

The report identifies a significant surge in global oil and gas pipeline development, with North America leading the trend. It contends that this expansion is predicated on a 'super cycle' of demand from Asia that is incompatible with IPCC climate goals and threatened by the rise of renewables and competing production in other regions. The authors compare the current situation to the 2011–2016 coal mining crash, warning that high leverage and a loss of 'social license' create a high risk of stranded assets.

The document introduces ACLED data on political violence targeting women (PVTW), defining it as the use of physical force by groups with political motivations in the public sphere. The analysis reveals that while sexual violence is a significant threat, non-sexual attacks are the most commonly reported type of PVTW globally. The brief highlights regional variations in both the types of violence and the perpetrators, noting that anonymous armed groups are the most frequent offenders overall, while state forces, political militias, and mobs dominate in specific regions. The authors argue that understanding these patterns is essential for evidence-based Women, Peace and Security (WPS) policies and for achieving 'security equality' by recognizing women as active political agents rather than mere victims.

The document outlines how Turkey, under the AKP, has shifted its foreign policy to emphasize historical, cultural, and religious links with 'kin communities' (akraba topluluklar) across Europe, the Middle East, and the Eastern Mediterranean. It defines the conceptual overlap between diaspora and kin-politics and describes the transition from a racial-ethnic national identity to an 'Islamic-Turkish synthesis' that views Turkey as a 'core country' for the global Muslim community (ummah). The text introduces case studies on Bulgaria, Germany, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Greece, Cyprus, and Palestine to analyze how this policy of 'spiritual boundaries' affects host countries and the communities themselves.

The report finds that while the number of state-based armed conflicts and total casualties declined in 2017, non-state conflicts increased significantly. Syria remained the deadliest conflict, and the Islamic State (IS) was involved in 31% of all conflicts. The authors note a long-term general decline in warfare since the 1950s, though they warn that internationalized intrastate conflicts and religious extremism continue to pose major threats to global peace.

The document argues that existing Canadian oil sands projects are 'locked in' because their low operating costs make them resilient to oil price drops. This resilience may lead to a global oversupply of oil, which slows the transition to low-carbon energy outside Canada. The author estimates that limiting Canadian oil production to current levels (1.5 billion barrels annually) instead of following projected growth to 2.1 billion barrels by 2030 could avoid 50 to 150 million tonnes of CO2 globally. The brief suggests that managing oil production levels could have a climate impact comparable to Canada's domestic sectoral emission reductions under the Pan-Canadian Framework.