Confronting carbon lock-in: Canada’s oil sands

The document argues that existing Canadian oil sands projects are 'locked in' because their low operating costs make them resilient to oil price drops. This resilience may lead to a global oversupply of oil, which slows the transition to low-carbon energy outside Canada. The author estimates that limiting Canadian oil production to current levels (1.5 billion barrels annually) instead of following projected growth to 2.1 billion barrels by 2030 could avoid 50 to 150 million tonnes of CO2 globally. The brief suggests that managing oil production levels could have a climate impact comparable to Canada's domestic sectoral emission reductions under the Pan-Canadian Framework.

• Most major existing oil sands projects in Canada are 'locked in' because they only need to cover operating costs to remain viable, making them resilient to oil price fluctuations below USD 50 per barrel.
• The continued production and expansion of the oil sands may create a global oversupply of oil, which would drive down prices and hinder the low-carbon transition in other countries.
• Limiting Canadian oil production to 1.5 billion barrels annually by 2030, rather than allowing it to reach the National Energy Board's projected 2.1 billion barrels, could reduce global emissions by 50 to 150 million tonnes of CO2.
• If Canada were to return its oil production to 2005 levels (0.9 billion barrels) by 2030, the estimated global avoidance of CO2 would increase to between 94 and 280 million tonnes.
• The potential global CO2 reductions from limiting Canadian oil production are of a similar scale to the total domestic emission reductions (175 million t CO2e) targeted by Canada's Pan-Canadian Framework for 2030.
• Oil sands production is particularly emissions-intensive, contributing 72 million t CO2e of the Canadian oil and gas sector's 180 million t CO2e total annual emissions.

APA

Erickson, P. (2018). Confronting carbon lock-in: Canada’s oil sands. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/confronting-carbon-lock-canadas-oil-sands.pdf

Chicago

Erickson, Peter. Confronting carbon lock-in: Canada’s oil sands. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2018. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/confronting-carbon-lock-canadas-oil-sands.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Erickson |first1=Peter |title=Confronting carbon lock-in: Canada’s oil sands |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=May 2018 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/confronting-carbon-lock-canadas-oil-sands.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{erickson2018confronting, author = {Erickson, Peter}, title = {{Confronting carbon lock-in: Canada’s oil sands}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2018}, month = may, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/confronting-carbon-lock-canadas-oil-sands.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }