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The document examines the evolving relationship between France and Senegal, highlighting a shift from exclusive ties to a more diversified partnership under President Abdoulaye Wade. While France remains the primary economic partner and donor, the paper details periods of diplomatic tension, the reduction of French military presence, and a renewed cordiality following the 2012 elections of Macky Sall and François Hollande.

The report analyzes the shift in power relations in Mali after the 2013 French military intervention, noting a 're-presidentialised' political system and a temporary decline in the influence of the 2012 military junta. It argues that while military gains in the north have been achieved, lasting stability requires inclusive reconciliation that addresses the grievances of northern communities and a credible electoral process that avoids returning to previous patterns of corruption. The author cautions against a traditional UN peacekeeping mission, suggesting a peace support operation instead, and emphasizes the need for comprehensive security sector reform and regional cooperation to counter terrorist and criminal networks.

The document analyzes Senegal's use of patronage, economic influence, and military cooperation to exercise power over Guinea-Bissau from 2000 to 2012. It highlights how Senegal leveraged Guinea-Bissau's instability to secure military support against Casamance separatists, while noting the eventual decline of this influence due to the rise of Angolan involvement and internal Senegalese political shifts.

The document examines the evolution of suicide attacks in Africa, distinguishing between ad hoc incidents and those part of broader campaigns by groups like AQLIM, al-Shabaab, and Boko Haram. It details tactical advantages, target selection, and delivery methods, while providing a historical analysis of attacks in countries such as Kenya, Tanzania, Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt, Somalia, and Nigeria. The guide also offers recommendations for preventing recruitment and improving intelligence gathering, while warning against repressive counter-terrorism measures that may fuel further radicalization.

The report identifies a 'syndrome of fragility' in Africa driven by the interaction of poor governance, conflict, inequality, and poverty. Using the International Futures (IFs) system, it forecasts that while 16 of the 26 identified 'more fragile' states could transition toward resilience by 2050, ten countries—including the DRC, Somalia, and South Sudan—are at risk of remaining in a fragility trap. The analysis warns that climate change and democratic deficits could exacerbate these risks, and recommends long-term national development plans, extractive sector reform, and direct cash transfers to the poor to pivot toward a more optimistic future.

The document describes a planned conference, 'The APRM +10: Reviewing a Decade of Peer Learning and Projecting a Future of Governance in Africa', to be held in Addis Ababa in May 2013. It seeks to evaluate the APRM's progress since its 2003 establishment, specifically focusing on the implementation of National Programmes of Action (NPoAs) and the role of civil society in holding member states accountable. The briefing highlights the tension between the voluntary nature of the APRM and the compulsory nature of the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance (ACDEG), while calling for better synergies between the APRM and other AU organs, such as the Pan African Parliament and the Peace and Security Commission.

The document examines Africa's role in the 'global nuclear renaissance,' noting that the continent holds 18% of world uranium resources. It details the production activities of Namibia, Niger, Malawi, and South Africa, while identifying emerging exploration in countries like the Central African Republic and Tanzania. The author argues that while uranium mining provides significant GDP contributions and employment, it is plagued by governance challenges, including a lack of institutional capacity to monitor environmental and health impacts. The paper compares African practices with those in Canada and Australia and suggests that strengthening government capacity and adopting international best practices, such as those from the IAEA and EITI, are essential for sustainable development.

The document analyzes the International Bar Association's Model Mining Development Agreement (MMDA 1.0), providing a template and narrative to ensure mining contracts promote sustainable development, transparency, and equitable resource distribution. It details key contractual areas including land tenure, royalties, taxation, and community obligations, while emphasizing the use of international standards like the IFC Performance Standards and EITI. Additionally, the report investigates the existence of similar model agreements for the oil and gas sector, concluding that no internationally accepted model currently exists despite the availability of various national form contracts.

The document outlines three primary factors for South Africa's success on the UN Security Council: restoring relations between the African Union and the Council, adopting a coherent approach to African conflicts, and securing a unified voice with other African members, specifically Morocco. It highlights the tension between South Africa's ambition for a permanent seat and the difficulty of building African consensus, citing divisions over Libya, Syria, and the election of Morocco. The author suggests a pragmatic approach to cooperation with Morocco, potentially using the instability in Sudan as a starting point for alliance-building.

The Adaptation Fund lacks a formal, transparent methodology for defining and measuring 'particular vulnerability,' leading to an ad hoc allocation process. An analysis of 48 proposals (25 approved) shows that funding has reached a wide range of socio-economic conditions and HDI levels, with no clear pattern correlating approvals to national vulnerability indices. While the fund prioritizes concrete adaptation measures in agriculture and water, the absence of standardized vulnerability criteria undermines the ability to systematically compare project merits or ensure that the most vulnerable populations are prioritized.

The document analyzes the AU's framework for democracy promotion, specifically its rejection of unconstitutional changes of government. It details the evolution of this principle from the Lomé Declaration of 2000 to the 2007 African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance, and discusses the 'democrat's dilemma' where popular uprisings to remove authoritarian leaders conflict with strict constitutionalism. The author argues for more consistent application of sanctions against leaders who refuse to leave office after elections and suggests the Pan-African Parliament develop guidelines for managing civilian-led transitions to democracy.

The document examines Angola's economic performance between 2002 and 2008, highlighting the risks associated with high oil intensity and the potential for 'peak oil' between 2010 and 2025. It argues that while the oil sector has a positive direct impact on the non-oil sector, a poor business climate and weak public spending effectiveness hinder broader development. The author recommends prioritizing domestic capital investment over the creation of a national wealth fund and emphasizes the need for transparent public finance management and democratic stability to ensure long-term economic sustainability.

The report examines the tension between national sovereignty and supranationalism in African decision-making, highlighting the role of the African Union (AU) and Regional Economic Communities (RECs). It analyzes the complexities of forming 'African Common Positions', using the 2009 Copenhagen climate negotiations as a case study, and critiques the EU's approach to partnership, specifically regarding Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs). The document also explores security architectures in the Horn of Africa and Southern Africa, noting the influence of external actors and the challenges of multi-membership in regional bodies.

The document outlines Africa's high vulnerability to climate change and its significant investment gaps in adaptation and mitigation. It evaluates the AGF's proposal to mobilise US$100 billion annually by 2020, highlighting potential public funding sources like carbon taxes and fossil fuel subsidy redirection, while stressing the need for grants for adaptation and regulatory reforms to attract private investment in carbon markets.

The policy brief evaluates the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM), a governance monitoring tool designed to foster political stability and sustainable development in Africa. The author identifies ten reasons for optimism, noting that 29 African countries have voluntarily joined the process and that the mechanism has accelerated its pace of reviews over time. While the author acknowledges that the system struggles to hold heads of state accountable for specific crises, the APRM has produced comprehensive reports that identify systemic weaknesses and has led to tangible governance gains in countries like Ghana, Rwanda, and Kenya. The brief concludes that the APRM empowers citizens through participatory assessment and promotes peer learning among states, though it requires more transparent leadership and better documentation of successes to maintain momentum.

The report analyzes the impasse in WTO Doha Round negotiations regarding environmental goods and services (EGS), specifically the difficulty in defining and listing goods for tariff reduction. It proposes a framework for progress by examining the structures of the CITES, Rotterdam, and Stockholm Conventions, as well as the Energy Star, Marine Stewardship Council (MSC), and coffee sustainability labels. The authors recommend that the WTO avoid creating its own standards, instead referencing external scientific standards, establishing a technical advisory body, and incorporating flexibility through reservations and special treatment for developing countries.

The African Union (AU) faces a dilemma in Niger, where a military 'counter-coup' has overthrown President Tandja, who had previously used unconstitutional means to bypass term limits. While the AU has broadened its definition of 'unconstitutional change of government' to include incumbent leaders manipulating constitutions, it must now decide how to respond to a textbook military coup. The author argues that the AU must condemn the coup to avoid political instability, despite the potential for the military to restore constitutional rule. The situation is complicated by Niger's mineral wealth—specifically uranium, gold, and oil—and the strategic interests of foreign powers like France, which relies on Niger for uranium imports for its nuclear energy sector.

The document argues that information for adaptation is not a readily available resource to be collected but must be generated through a structured process of monitoring, target setting, and progress assessment. It proposes a conceptual model that links a 'CC/CV Observatory' (data collection) to an 'Information System' (processing) and finally to decision-makers at policy and operational levels. For Africa, the author emphasizes the need for long-term time series data, which is often lacking, and suggests involving the private sector and local populations (e.g., farmers using SMS) to sustain monitoring networks. The paper highlights the OMVS Environmental Observatory in Senegal as a successful participatory model for data collection. Regarding dissemination, it suggests tailored strategies: for mitigation, targeting industry and the informal sector (such as motorcycle users and cooling technicians); for adaptation, using National Action Plans for Adaptation (NAPA) to identify vulnerable groups and employing FAO's 'Information for Action' approach to deliver actionable, language-appropriate guidance.

The document analyzes three generations of unconstitutional power shifts in Africa, from post-independence coups to modern manipulations of term limits and 'models' of military intervention. It argues that while Regional Economic Communities (RECs) like ECOWAS and SADC have the potential to mitigate these trends through sanctions and democratic protocols, their effectiveness is hindered by state sovereignty, inconsistent implementation of laws, and the influence of powerful regional leaders who support usurpers. The authors recommend that RECs focus on root causes—such as socioeconomic stagnation and weak institutions—and encourage the ratification of the AU Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance.

The document examines the 2009 transition of power from President Marc Ravalomanana to Andry Rajoelina, framing it as part of a historical pattern of popular uprisings and governance failures in Madagascar. It details the catalysts of the crisis, including accusations of bad governance and the role of the 'urban mob' in Antananarivo, while assessing the international community's response and mediation efforts led by Joachim Chissano. The author argues that sustainable stability requires addressing root causes such as extreme poverty and the lack of credible electoral mechanisms.