Madagascar: Anatomy of a Recurrent Crisis

The document examines the 2009 transition of power from President Marc Ravalomanana to Andry Rajoelina, framing it as part of a historical pattern of popular uprisings and governance failures in Madagascar. It details the catalysts of the crisis, including accusations of bad governance and the role of the 'urban mob' in Antananarivo, while assessing the international community's response and mediation efforts led by Joachim Chissano. The author argues that sustainable stability requires addressing root causes such as extreme poverty and the lack of credible electoral mechanisms.

• The 2009 transition of power to Andry Rajoelina is characterized as an unconstitutional change of government, condemned by the African Union (AU), the Southern African Development Community (SADC), the European Union (EU), and countries including the United States and Norway.
• The crisis was precipitated by a clash of personalities and accusations that President Marc Ravalomanana conflated state governance with his personal business interests through his company, Tiko, and repressed political opposition.
• Madagascar's political history is defined by a recurring cycle of violent accessions to power and popular uprisings used to effect regime change, with both Ravalomanana and Rajoelina utilizing their roles as mayors of Antananarivo to mobilize public support.
• The ability to mobilize unemployed youth in the capital, Antananarivo, is a critical factor in Malagasy national politics, creating a volatile atmosphere where the 'urban mob' can be used to oust incumbents.
• International mediation efforts were initially hindered by a lack of coordination and the refusal of the protagonists to compromise, but progressed under the leadership of former Mozambican president Joachim Chissano, leading to the signing of the Charter of the Transition on 8 August 2009.
• The document argues that durable stability in Madagascar depends on moving beyond symptomatic fixes to address root causes, specifically extreme poverty, high birth rates, and the need for a functional agricultural sector to ensure food security.

APA

Maunganidze, O. (2009). Madagascar: Anatomy of a Recurrent Crisis. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/MADAGASCAR15OCT09.PDF

Chicago

Maunganidze, Ottilia. Madagascar: Anatomy of a Recurrent Crisis. Institute for Security Studies, 2009. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/MADAGASCAR15OCT09.PDF.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Maunganidze |first1=Ottilia |title=Madagascar: Anatomy of a Recurrent Crisis |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=16 October 2009 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/MADAGASCAR15OCT09.PDF |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{maunganidze2009madagascar, author = {Maunganidze, Ottilia}, title = {{Madagascar: Anatomy of a Recurrent Crisis}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2009}, month = oct, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/MADAGASCAR15OCT09.PDF}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }