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The report examines the distinct challenges of financial market development in fragility-affected states in Africa (FASA), where financial exclusion is significantly higher than in non-fragile sub-Saharan African countries. It advocates for a 'market systems' or 'M4P' approach based on facilitation and adaptive management rather than direct implementation. Key priorities identified include the development of functional identification solutions, risk-based tiered KYC regulations, and the scaling of promising practices such as Islamic finance, refugee/IDP finance, and impact investing. The document emphasizes that systemic change in these volatile contexts requires long-term commitment, a high tolerance for risk, and a deep understanding of local political economy and conflict dynamics.

The document argues that Belgium and the Netherlands are in breach of international law by exporting high sulfur fuels to West African states, specifically those party to the Bamako Convention. It concludes that these fuels qualify as hazardous wastes under the Bamako Convention and, by extension, under the Basel Convention for countries with monist legal systems. The report asserts that such exports violate the Basel Convention's prohibition on exporting hazardous wastes to parties that have banned their import, breach customary international law by frustrating the treaty's purpose, and violate extraterritorial human rights obligations regarding the right to health.

The document assesses public finance aligned with REDD+ goals in Côte d’Ivoire for 2015, highlighting the risk of total forest loss by 2034 due to agricultural expansion and logging. It argues that 'greening' existing agricultural finance could increase REDD+ aligned funding fivefold to FCFA 101 billion (USD 169 million) and suggests new mechanisms like a National REDD+ Fund to support sustainable land use.

In 2015, Côte d’Ivoire's financial flows for REDD+ were significantly lower than the investment needs required to reach its 2030 goal of 20% forest cover. While 16.8 billion FCFA was aligned with REDD+ objectives, a much larger sum of 84.2 billion FCFA was spent on 'grey' activities—primarily agricultural intensification—that could potentially drive further deforestation without stronger safeguards. The report highlights a critical funding gap, noting that the minimum annual cost for reforestation and agroforestry is estimated at 173 billion FCFA. It argues that the government and international partners have a major opportunity to 'green' existing agricultural investments and calls for the creation of a National REDD+ Fund and improved land-use planning to leverage finance more effectively.

In 2015, Côte d’Ivoire received FCFA 16.8 billion in REDD+ aligned finance, a small fraction of the estimated FCFA 173 billion needed annually to reach its 2030 forest cover target. The report highlights a significant gap between ambition and means, noting that 87% of relevant international finance (FCFA 80 billion) was 'grey'—meaning it lacked safeguards to prevent deforestation. Key institutional bottlenecks include SODEFOR's inability to execute its reforestation budget and a lack of mainstreaming of forest protection in national planning. The report argues that 'greening' existing agricultural finance could increase aligned funding five-fold. It recommends creating a National REDD+ Fund, improving land tenure security, and leveraging the success of the OIPR's debt-swap funding model.

The document forecasts that Africa's population will grow to over 1.8 billion by 2035, potentially compounding poverty if economic growth and job creation do not keep pace. While economic growth is expected, it will be heterogeneous, with oil-dependent nations remaining vulnerable to price shocks. The region faces significant infrastructure gaps, particularly in electricity and water, and rapid urbanisation that may increase social instability. Despite a rise in riots and protests, high-fatality violence is lower than in the 1990s. Popular support for democracy remains strong, although actual democratic governance remains fragile and limited in scope.

The policy brief examines the increasing presence of sub-Saharan African migrants in Algeria and Morocco, noting that while they have not been significantly implicated in terrorism, their precarious socio-economic conditions and exposure to racism create vulnerabilities. It advocates for the operationalisation of regularisation schemes and the adoption of non-coercive PVE strategies based on UN pillars to prevent future radicalisation.

The document analyzes South Africa's transition from a leading 'norm entrepreneur' in Africa during the Mandela and Mbeki eras to a state currently facing a 'crisis of expectations' under President Jacob Zuma. While South Africa historically exported its model of democratic transition through mediation in Burundi and the DRC and the reform of continental institutions like the AU and SADC, it is now criticized for failing to oppose democratic reversals and human rights abuses. The brief highlights contradictions in South Africa's current approach, including its controversial withdrawal from the International Criminal Court and its reluctance to vote on country-specific human rights issues in the UN. It recommends that South Africa leverage its soft power and financial influence within the AU and SADC to regain its status as a champion of peace and governance.

The document analyzes Côte d’Ivoire's transition from a passive actor during decades of crisis to a re-emerging regional power under President Alassane Ouattara. It examines the institutional framework of Ivorian diplomacy, its bilateral relations with neighbors, and its leadership roles within regional organizations like UEMOA and ECOWAS, while noting the enduring influence of Félix Houphouët-Boigny's legacy.

The document argues that while South Africa has been instrumental in the DRC's peace processes and initial state-building, its current approach is failing to ensure long-term institutional stability. The author contends that South Africa's 'quiet diplomacy' and reluctance to demand adherence to democratic values and the rule of law have allowed the DRC's political transition to stall, specifically regarding the postponement of presidential elections.

The report finds that public finance for REDD+ objectives in Côte d’Ivoire is severely insufficient, with 2015 investments of FCFA 16.8 billion representing a small fraction of the estimated FCFA 173 billion annual need for the 2030 forest cover target. A significant amount of public funding (FCFA 84.2 billion) is classified as 'grey finance'—agricultural intensification that lacks safeguards and may drive deforestation. The analysis highlights critical gaps in national planning, underfunding of land-use planning and land tenure, and institutional weaknesses in agencies like SODEFOR. It argues that 'greening' existing agricultural finance and creating a National REDD+ Fund could significantly increase aligned investment.

The document examines how ECOWAS implements the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA), focusing on 'sustaining peace' through conflict prevention, mediation, and peacebuilding. It highlights ECOWAS's sophisticated early warning system (ECOWARN) and its recent institutionalization of mediation through a new directorate, while noting significant gaps in post-conflict reconstruction and development (PCRD). The paper argues for clearer definitions of comparative advantage and subsidiarity between ECOWAS and the African Union (AU) to avoid duplication and improve regional stability.

The document analyzes Nigeria's struggle to maintain its status as a 'regional hegemon' since the return to democracy in 1999. It argues that while Nigeria has a history of assertive 'Africa-centred' foreign policy, this has been eroded by domestic instability, corruption, the Boko Haram insurgency, and a lack of strategic leadership. The author highlights a shift in continental pre-eminence from Nigeria to South Africa and notes that Nigeria's regional influence in West Africa is contested and often dependent on external actors like France. The paper concludes that only a fundamental restructuring of domestic governance and the economy can restore Nigeria's international standing.

The document analyzes the state of democracy in Africa, arguing that while electoral democracy has increased since 1989, it is often constrained by neopatrimonialism and a lack of governance capacity. It explores the 'sequencing debate' regarding whether democracy precedes or follows economic development, noting that while authoritarian models have sometimes delivered rapid growth, long-term human development is robustly linked to high-quality electoral democracy. Using the International Futures (IFs) system, the author forecasts that a 'Fourth Wave' of democracy could significantly increase Africa's GDP and reduce extreme poverty by 2070 compared to an 'Authoritarian Regress' scenario.

The report identifies a 'cusp group' comprising 23% of sub-Saharan Africa's population who earn $2-$5 per day and straddle formal and informal economies. It analyzes three distinct credit market 'faces': South Africa is 'Stuck' due to aggressive formal lending and high indebtedness; Kenya is 'Uncertain' as it transitions from traditional loans to rapid, short-term digital lending; and Ghana is 'Squeezed' by macroeconomic instability and high costs that limit formal credit access. The document argues that 'healthy' credit markets must be accessible, robust, diverse, and value-adding to prevent over-indebtedness while enabling asset accumulation. It recommends that regulators improve market monitoring, invest in digital identification, and introduce mechanisms like 'learner's licenses' for credit to protect vulnerable borrowers.

Togo has significantly reduced piracy since 2012 through increased naval patrols and international cooperation, recording no acts of piracy in 2015. However, the country faces ongoing challenges, including a struggling fisheries sector plagued by overfishing and poor resources, and an international ship registry that provides few local jobs and is linked to illicit fishing. While the Autonomous Port of Lomé maintains ISPS Code compliance and serves as a key transit hub for landlocked countries like Burkina Faso, it suffers from space constraints and poor internal road infrastructure. To sustain security, Togo established the National Organisation for State Action at Sea (NOSAS) in 2014, though hierarchical ambiguities persist between the maritime prefect and the advisor for the sea.

The policy brief examines how domestic xenophobia contradicts South Africa's 'diplomacy of ubuntu' and its aspirations for African leadership. It highlights specific incidents of violence and government failures, suggesting that South Africa must address the root causes of intolerance domestically and regionalise its policy responses to reclaim its international standing.

Phaesun GmbH and Horn Renewables have deployed 'Business Opportunities with Solar Systems' (BOSS) solutions in Somaliland since 2012, focusing on the commercial sector in non-electrified areas. Key implementations include solar charging stations for mobile phones and LED lamps, as well as solar cooling and freezing kits for fishermen and shop owners. By the end of 2015, the partnership established over 50 charging stations across 23 locations and installed 33 cooling kits. These interventions have enabled fishermen to preserve catches and achieve higher margins by selling fresh fish in cities. The project has also introduced solar-powered fans, TVs, and agricultural processing services, with plans to develop a 'solar market place' in a village square to further enhance community prosperity.

In 2011/12, Phaesun installed a 3kWp off-grid PV system with battery storage at Yandup Island Lodge in the Kuna Yala archipelago, Panama. The system replaced a diesel generator that previously served the kitchen, reducing high fuel costs and delivery challenges. The installation consists of 40 monocrystalline solar modules and 32 Trojan batteries, providing reliable power for the kitchen, administration, staff accommodation, and tourist bungalows.

The document examines the African Union's (AU) efforts to 'Africanise' its maritime domain through AIMS 2050, specifically by proposing a continental cabotage regime to reduce foreign dominance in intra-African shipping. While proponents argue this would create jobs and economic independence, the paper identifies significant barriers, including inadequate port infrastructure, a lack of skilled seafarers, and limited political will, as evidenced by the low ratification rates of the African Maritime Transport Charter. It further analyzes the legal complexities regarding World Trade Organization (WTO) regulations and concludes that the proposed regime is currently 'ahead of schedule' due to the absence of necessary industrial and governance preconditions.