Search Climate Insights Directory

The report analyzes Rwanda's development trajectories, finding that a 'Combined scenario' of sectoral improvements would significantly boost GDP and GDP per capita, potentially making Rwanda a high-income country by 2050. While this scenario drastically reduces extreme poverty and improves life expectancy, it also leads to higher carbon emissions than the Current Path and fails to meet Vision 2050's specific inequality targets. The economic structure would shift from service-led to manufacturing-led by 2050.

The report provides a detailed inventory of 13 nature-based solutions (NbS) projects across Zambia, focusing on their approaches, targeted ecosystems, and the climate and biodiversity risks they address. It highlights the high dependency of Zambia's economy on natural resources, with agriculture employing about 70% of the population, and the resulting vulnerability to temperature extremes, erratic rainfall, and floods. Key interventions across the documented projects include the restoration of wetlands and forests, the implementation of agroforestry and conservation farming, and the development of sustainable livelihoods such as beekeeping and non-timber forest product harvesting. The inventory notes that projects are heavily concentrated in ecologically vital landscapes, including national parks and major basins like the Barotse and Lake Tanganyika. Many initiatives emphasize gender-responsive approaches and participatory governance to ensure inclusive adaptation.

The report evaluates Rwanda's progress on climate adaptation indicators for human settlements and transport. Key findings include an increase in rural households in planned settlements to 65.4% and the implementation of stormwater-inclusive master plans in 16 districts. However, urban informal settlements remain at 61.3%, and urban green space (19.89%) falls short of the 30% target. The transport sector has developed comprehensive resilience guidelines and expanded scheduled bus routes to 14,475 km, though road vulnerability assessments show significant risks in the Western, Northern, and Southern Provinces.

The report evaluates three primary climate adaptation indicators in Rwanda: the proportion of rural populations in clustered settlements, access to water and sanitation services, and the reduction of road vulnerability to floods and landslides. It finds that while planned rural settlements have increased to 65.4% and water access has improved, significant gaps remain in sanitation coverage and road resilience. The document highlights the effectiveness of engineering solutions like gabions and terracing for road stability and the social benefits of Integrated Development Programme (IDP) model villages, while recommending increased investment in climate-resilient infrastructure and better inter-sectoral coordination.

The project aims to transform the drought-degraded Eastern Province of Rwanda into climate-resilient ecosystems and communities. It focuses on restoring 98,000 hectares of rural landscapes to improve soil health, water retention, and food security for over 100,000 households. The initiative is structured around three components: implementing resilient agro-ecological practices, developing climate-resilient markets and supply chains, and strengthening institutional coordination for land management. With a total indicative cost of USD 50 million, the project seeks USD 33 million in GCF grants to address barriers such as the lack of technical knowledge and the absence of climate finance for smallholders.

The Better Life Alliance (BLA) project in Zambia's Luangwa valley reduced greenhouse gas emissions by an estimated 902,531 tCO2e/yr, primarily through the prevention of savanna degradation and conversion. The project utilized a business model linking conservation to market incentives and promoted agro-ecological soil management and reduced postharvest losses for crops including groundnuts, maize, rice, and soybeans.

The report identifies three primary categories of insecurity in Kenya: armed civilian groups, state-led violence, and jihadist activities. While al-Shabaab has increased its frequency and deadliness of attacks since the 2011 deployment of troops to Somalia, the report finds that non-al-Shabaab armed groups and state actions have historically caused more fatalities. The analysis highlights systemic drivers of instability, including the legacy of 'imperial presidents', pervasive marginalisation—particularly regarding land distribution at the coast and in the Rift Valley—and the politicisation of security for electoral gain. It also notes the influence of the regional war economy and porous borders with Somalia, Ethiopia, and Uganda.

The document outlines Zambia's human development trajectory, noting improvements in rural poverty, primary education enrolment, and child mortality, while highlighting persistent challenges in maternal mortality, HIV/AIDS orphans, and high income inequality.

The report assesses Zambia's stability, noting that while the country has avoided civil war, it faces structural threats from pervasive poverty, neopatrimonial governance, and an imbalance of power between the executive and other state branches. It highlights the risk of political entrepreneurs exploiting ethnic tensions and the potential for social unrest due to economic inequality and a stalled constitutional review process.