A strategic conflict assessment of Zambia

The report assesses Zambia's stability, noting that while the country has avoided civil war, it faces structural threats from pervasive poverty, neopatrimonial governance, and an imbalance of power between the executive and other state branches. It highlights the risk of political entrepreneurs exploiting ethnic tensions and the potential for social unrest due to economic inequality and a stalled constitutional review process.

• Zambia's political stability is undermined by a system of neopatrimonialism where public funds are used for private purposes and leaders reward supporters with jobs and contracts to maintain power.
• There is a significant imbalance of power within the state, with the executive branch dominating the legislature and judiciary, which is considered a structural cause of conflict.
• Pervasive poverty and social inequality are identified as deep-seated structural threats; as of 2006, 64% of the population lived below the national poverty line.
• The constitutional review process is a source of tension and a potential escalating factor for conflict, particularly regarding the inclusion of a new Bill of Rights and the voting system.
• While ethnic relations have been generally stable, there is a risk that politicians may politicise ethnicity and xenophobia to mobilise voters, as seen in the 2006 campaigns.
• The Zambian army is viewed as professional and neutral, but the police service is highly politicised and suffers from widespread corruption and public distrust.
• Zambia's economy is dangerously over-reliant on copper, which accounts for three-quarters of its exports, making it vulnerable to global market fluctuations.
• The HIV/AIDS epidemic has severely weakened the country's productive capacity, with an estimated 17% of the population aged 15-49 being HIV positive.

APA

Smith-Höhn, J. (n.d.). A strategic conflict assessment of Zambia. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/M158Full.pdf

Chicago

Smith-Höhn, Judy. A strategic conflict assessment of Zambia. Institute for Security Studies, n.d. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/M158Full.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Smith-Höhn |first1=Judy |title=A strategic conflict assessment of Zambia |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/M158Full.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{smithhhnndstrategic, author = {Smith-Höhn, Judy}, title = {{A strategic conflict assessment of Zambia}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/M158Full.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }