Search Climate Insights Directory

The document examines the link between poverty, human insecurity, and conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. It argues that the 'security first' approach of international donors is flawed because it focuses on state security while ignoring the structural economic collapse caused by neo-liberal structural adjustment programmes and unsustainable debt. The author describes 'new wars' in Africa as rational economic responses to exclusion, where warlords utilize global markets for lootable commodities. The paper advocates for a shift toward 'human security' and a significant increase in official development assistance (ODA) to meet Millennium Development Goals, warning that current donor strategies continue to prioritize market liberalization over genuine poverty alleviation.

The document outlines the evolution of Boko Haram from its 2009 clashes with security forces to its split into factions and the emergence of ISIS-WA. Key milestones include the 2014 abduction of over 200 Chibok school girls, the expansion of attacks into Niger, Chad, and Cameroon, and the subsequent military efforts by Nigeria to reclaim territory, including the clearance of the Sambisa Forest camp in 2017.

The document provides a historical analysis of the military forces in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, beginning with the Force Publique under King Léopold II and continuing through the Zairian Armed Forces (FAZ) under President Mobutu. It details the systemic politicisation, tribalisation, and de-professionalisation of the army during the Mobutu era, which led to a breakdown in civil-military relations. The text further examines the conflicts involving the AFDL and the 'First African World War,' culminating in the Inter-Congolese Dialogue and the subsequent efforts to integrate government and rebel forces into a restructured, apolitical national army under the 2003 constitution.

The provided text is a detailed list of references, including academic books, reports from international organizations (UN, AU, ECOWAS), human rights briefings (Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch), and legal documents. The bibliography focuses on the geopolitical and security landscape of West Africa, specifically documenting the civil wars and peace processes in Liberia and Sierra Leone, the role of ECOMOG and UNMIL, and the application of international humanitarian law and transitional justice.

The document highlights the disproportionate risks faced by women environmental and human rights defenders (WEHRDs) in Africa, including gender-based violence, criminalization, and digital attacks. It notes a significant gap in data and reporting, with women often excluded from official statistics and protection mechanisms. The brief identifies the Democratic Republic of Congo as the deadliest country for environmental defenders and calls for gender-responsive funding, legal protections, and the formal recognition of WEHRDs' leadership within UNFCCC processes and national policies.

The document highlights the disproportionate risks faced by women environmental and human rights defenders (WEHRDs) in Africa, including gender-based violence, criminalization, and digital attacks. It notes a significant gap in data collection, where official statistics underrepresent the scale of violence against women compared to men. The report identifies the extractive industry, poaching, and state security forces as primary sources of threats, particularly in countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda, and Kenya. It argues that WEHRDs face unique intersectional vulnerabilities based on race, class, and disability, and calls for flexible, long-term funding and gender-sensitive legal and psychosocial support to protect these activists.

The research paper develops a formal model and provides empirical analysis to argue that third-party military intervention in civil wars is driven by economic factors. The authors find that the likelihood of intervention increases when the conflict state has large oil reserves, when the global oil market is more oligopolistic (less competitive), and when the potential intervener is a net oil importer. Using a dyadic dataset from 1945-1999, the study demonstrates that the value of oil reserves and the intervener's balance of trade in oil are significant predictors of intervention, often exerting a larger impact than traditional factors like ethnic ties or Cold War dynamics.

The study analyzes 285 conflict episodes to determine how natural resources affect the duration of postconflict peace. It identifies three primary mechanisms: distribution, financing, and aggravation. The findings indicate that while natural resource conflicts generally show shorter peace periods bivariately, only conflicts driven by disagreements over the distribution of resources and revenues significantly increase the risk of recurrence in a multivariate analysis. This suggests that resource-related grievances are a more persistent driver of conflict relapse than the mere opportunity to finance warfare.

The document examines the African Union's (AU) unprecedented attempt to use military compellence against the government of Burundi in December 2015. After diplomatic efforts and targeted sanctions failed to stop violence against civilians, the AU Peace and Security Council (PSC) issued an ultimatum threatening a non-consensual military intervention under Article 4(h) of the AU Constitutive Act. The authors argue that this threat failed to materialise due to the Burundian government's strategic use of its status as a troop-contributing country, a lack of unity among AU member states, and a regional culture of autocracy where neighbouring leaders were reluctant to challenge the extension of presidential term limits.

The research argues that external states often intervene in civil wars to pursue objectives separate from those of internal combatants, which makes conflicts harder to resolve. Using Cox regressions on data from 1945 to 2004, the author finds that 'independent interventions' significantly increase war duration compared to 'non-independent' interventions. This is attributed to the introduction of additional demands that shrink the bargaining range, the difficulty of updating beliefs in multi-party conflicts, and the lower costs of fighting for external states compared to domestic actors.

The report argues that civil war is 'development in reverse,' creating a 'conflict trap' where poverty and institutional failure increase the risk of war, and war further degrades development. It identifies three rings of adverse effects: internal civilian suffering, regional spillovers (such as arms races and disease), and global costs (including drug trafficking and terrorism). The authors find that civil war is increasingly concentrated in 'marginalized' low-income countries and those in the conflict trap. To combat this, the report proposes a policy package including improved aid timing, transparent natural resource governance, and coordinated military-development sequencing in postconflict decades.

The research finds that while Libyan arms significantly enhanced the military capacity of insurgents in Mali and the Sinai, the overall proliferation was less destabilizing and widespread than initially feared, abating after 2013 due to international interventions and increased domestic demand within Libya.

The research examines the determinants of external state support for rebel groups using a new dataset of 403 organizations. It argues that support is not merely a function of the civil war's general characteristics but depends on the specific attributes of the rebel group and the international relations of the target state. The findings indicate that moderately strong groups with transnational constituencies are most likely to receive aid, particularly when the target state is involved in an international rivalry or receives its own external support. Conversely, very strong or very weak groups, and those in democratic states, are less likely to be supported.

The research demonstrates that states experiencing civil wars are significantly more likely to be involved in militarized interstate disputes (MIDs). Using data from 1946 to 2001, the authors find that this 'civil peace' effect is comparable in magnitude to the 'democratic peace' effect. Analysis of over 400 MIDs reveals that the increased risk is driven by states attempting to influence the outcome of civil wars through direct intervention, externalization (such as cross-border counter-insurgency), and unintended spillovers, rather than by opportunistic attacks on weakened states or diversionary wars to consolidate domestic power.

The paper examines the 'globalisation' of the Darfur rebellion, arguing that while international attention provided rebels with leverage and deterred mass violence, it also incentivised uncompromising political posturing and fostered internal fragmentation by decoupling leadership from local legitimacy.

The report examines SFA in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, and Somalia since 2010, finding that billions in spending have often been ineffective or counter-productive. It identifies a 'piecemeal approach' where multiple providers with diverging interests create fragmented security forces, undermining professional standards and civilian oversight. Case studies of Mali and Somalia highlight issues such as high personnel turnover, a focus on technical skills over ethics, and the diversion of equipment to illicit markets. The authors recommend long-term, coordinated partnerships based on detailed local capacity assessments to foster cohesion rather than fragmentation.

The document provides a comprehensive overview of global conflict trends from 1989 to 2019, noting a record high of 54 state-based conflicts in 2019. It highlights the significant role of the Islamic State (IS) in driving recent conflict increases and the prevalence of internationalized civil conflicts. While battle-related deaths have generally decreased over the last 20 years, specific hotspots in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia remain deadly. The paper also analyzes the decline in peace agreements since 2015 and the persistence of non-state conflicts, particularly violent drug cartel activity in Latin America and communal violence in Africa.

The paper analyzes conflict dynamics in Africa from 1989 to 2019, noting a record high of 25 state-based conflicts in 2019, many of which are low-intensity or involve the Islamic State. While Africa faces rising non-state conflicts and one-sided violence, it also leads other regions in the number of definitive ceasefires and peace agreements. The study further details the growth of UN peacekeeping operations in the region from 1994 to 2018, highlighting a significant increase in troop deployment peaking in 2010.

The author argues that World Refugee Day (WRD) functions as a tool for the UNHCR to recast refugee agency as an extension of its own humanitarian efforts, effectively acting as a 'surrogate state' for displaced people. By analyzing the 'World Pays Tribute' news story, the paper highlights a tension between the celebratory, de-politicized imagery of WRD—which often uses 'utopian representations' of joyful refugees—and the 'extra-democratic' realities of UNHCR governance, such as the 'warehousing' of refugees in camps and procedural gaps in refugee status determination.

The document analyzes Nigeria's economic contraction and subsequent recovery during the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting the role of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and fiscal stimulus. It identifies critical gaps in social protection, gender-responsive policy, and fiscal buffers, while advocating for central bank independence and digital economy integration for long-term stability.