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The report finds that by mid-century, between USD 300 million and almost USD 1 billion in annual soy trade bound for Europe could be exposed to disruption due to critically low river levels at the ports of Manaus and Santarém. This risk is driven by a combination of climate change and Amazon deforestation, which reduces rainfall and moisture cycling. The analysis highlights that major commodity traders like Cargill, Amaggi, and Bunge face significant financial exposure, and that EU importers are particularly vulnerable given their reliance on Brazilian soy for livestock feed. The document argues that protecting the Amazon forest is essential for maintaining the physical river infrastructure that compliant, deforestation-free supply chains depend on.

The report argues that Brazil's primary agricultural policy instrument must be reoriented to align with national climate goals, specifically by restricting credit for illegal deforestation, expanding access for vulnerable family farmers, and reforming risk management programs like Proagro and PSR to ensure fiscal sustainability and environmental integrity.

The report finds that while significant financial flows enter the Cerrado, the current financial architecture fails to align agricultural funding with sustainability and zero-deforestation goals. Subsidized sustainable credit represents only 5.7% of total rural credit in the biome between 2020/21 and 2023/24, and is highly concentrated among large producers and a few financial institutions. The Matopiba region is particularly vulnerable, concentrating over 55% of the biome's deforestation (2013–2022) while relying heavily on Constitutional Financing Funds (FCFs), which often lack transparent sustainability criteria. Blended finance instruments show potential through risk mitigation and flexible terms but remain limited in scale compared to the economic incentives driving land conversion. The authors recommend improving transparency via the Brazilian Sustainable Taxonomy (TSB), expanding the role of sustainable credit, and fostering financial innovation to mobilize private capital.

The document outlines the environmental risks associated with the EU-Mercosur trade agreement, specifically regarding deforestation in the Amazon and other biomes, the extraction of critical minerals, and the potential conflict between the trade deal and the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR).

The RCF-DCF Project is a USD 425 million initiative designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Brazil's Cerrado by providing low-interest crop finance to soy farmers who commit to deforestation- and conversion-free (DCF) production. Managed by Sustainable Investment Management Limited (SIM), the project utilizes a Luxembourg-based RCF Impact Fund and co-investment vehicles to issue 'green' Certificados de Recebíveis do Agronegócio (CRAs) backed by Cédulas de Produto Rural (CPRs). The project aims to protect 379,949 hectares of native vegetation and avoid approximately 25.58 million tCO2eq over its 20-year lifespan. It targets medium-sized farms and prioritizes female-owned operations to promote gender equality in the agribusiness sector.

The Gender and Social Inclusion Plan for the RCF-DCF Project in Brazil's Cerrado region aims to integrate a gender lens into soy production investment strategies. The plan sets targets to ensure 50% of investee farms have at least one female owner and 100% of contracts require compliance with Brazilian legislation on gender equality and Sexual Exploitation, Abuse, and Harassment (SEAH). It also details awareness-raising activities, including 10 farmer field days and the creation of educational materials, to promote gender equality and women's leadership in agribusiness.

The report finds that while significant financial flows reach the Cerrado, particularly in the MATOPIBA region, the current architecture fails to align agricultural finance with zero-deforestation goals. Sustainable subsidized credit represents only 5.7% of total rural credit in the biome and is highly concentrated among large producers and a few financial institutions. In MATOPIBA, Constitutional Financing Funds (FCFs) provide 62% of subsidized credit but lack transparency regarding sustainability criteria. Blended-finance instruments show promise through risk-mitigation and value chain partnerships but remain limited in scale due to high Brazilian interest rates, regulatory complexity for foreign investors, and the strong economic incentive for land conversion. The authors recommend improving transparency via the Brazilian Sustainable Taxonomy (BST), increasing the share of sustainability-linked public credit, and scaling innovative blended structures to mobilize private capital.

The report finds that while agricultural credit flows to the Cerrado are significant, the current financial architecture fails to align with sustainability goals. Sustainable credit is limited, highly concentrated among large producers and a few financial institutions, and lacks sufficient territorial coverage, particularly in the Matopiba region. The authors recommend improving transparency through tools like the Brazilian Sustainable Taxonomy, increasing the share of financing linked to sustainability results, and scaling innovative blended finance mechanisms to mobilize private capital.

Analysis of 840 municipalities in the Cerrado shows that land clearing for soy creates a 3:1 productivity loss, where climate spillovers outweigh the gains from new farmland. While individual farmers profit by externalizing costs, the region lost USD 9.4 billion in potential soy production between 2013 and 2023 due to deforestation-induced drying. Global importers, particularly China and Germany, face significant supply chain vulnerabilities, with China's sourcing regions losing USD 5.0 billion in annual production capacity. The report argues for urgent conservation and intensification strategies, noting that most municipalities are still below a critical climate threshold where protection delivers maximum benefit.

The report argues that Brazil's agribusiness sector exercises disproportionate political power to maintain 'agricultural exceptionalism,' allowing it to avoid strict climate regulations. It highlights the omission of agricultural methane from Brazil's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and criticizes the industry's use of misleading metrics like GWP* to downplay emissions. The document also details corporate efforts by giants like JBS, MBRF, and Minerva to shape the COP30 agenda through sponsored events and media influence, while contrasting this industrial model with a more sustainable agroecological system led by small farmers.

The Seeded Initiative is a financial vehicle designed to address a critical bottleneck in Brazil's restoration value chain: the lack of capital for native seedling nurseries. To meet national targets of restoring 12 million hectares by 2030, Brazil needs approximately one billion seedlings annually, but currently produces only 200 million. The initiative employs a revolving debt structure using receivables-backed credit (via CPR-F, CRA, and FIDC instruments) and blended finance to provide working capital and CAPEX support to nurseries. The model transitions from high concessional support in its Proof-of-Concept phase to market-aligned returns in its commercial and scale-up phases. If scaled to one billion seedlings per year, the initiative could enable the restoration of 670,000 to 1 million hectares, removing an estimated 8.6 to 18.3 million tons of CO2e annually.

The document examines the legal framework and compliance risks for soy and cattle in Brazil under the EUDR. It highlights systemic issues including land grabbing, illegal deforestation, and labour violations, while warning EU companies that official records and third-party certifications are often insufficient for due diligence.

Brazil has announced a new NDC targeting a greenhouse gas emissions reduction of 59–67% by 2035 relative to 2005 levels. To achieve this, the government is developing a 2024-2035 Climate Plan consisting of an Adaptation Plan and a Mitigation Plan. The document argues that private sector investment is essential for success and recommends harmonizing sectoral policies, promoting corporate transition plans, and strengthening public-private dialogue. Key focus areas include halting illegal deforestation, decarbonizing agriculture, transitioning energy and industry away from fossil fuels, and implementing a national Emissions Trading System (ETS).

The text emphasizes that Brazil's vast size and climatic diversity require detailed observational studies to distinguish between natural variability and long-term climate change. It highlights that interannual variability, driven largely by El Niño and La Niña, can alter seasonal rainfall in the Amazon by a factor of more than four. The author cautions that most precipitation trends in Brazil are linked to interdecadal oscillations—such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO)—rather than global warming. Additionally, the document notes a trend of increasing air temperatures in the tropics of South America since 1948, contrasting with a negative trend in the subtropics since the mid-1990s, and mentions the influence of land-use change and biomass burning on air temperature in the Amazon and Cerrado.

The report argues that Brazil's agribusiness sector, dominated by giants like JBS, MBRF, and Minerva, exerts systemic control over political and public narratives to avoid climate regulation. It highlights a critical 'blind spot' in Brazil's updated NDC, which omits agricultural methane emissions despite the sector accounting for 75.6% of the country's total methane. The document details how the 'ruralist caucus' (FPA) controls Congress and pushes for controversial methane metrics like GWP* to downplay warming impacts. It also exposes the 'AgriZone' and other industry-led events surrounding COP30 as tools for greenwashing, while noting that structural weaknesses in the Climate Plan, Tax Reform, and Forest Code continue to favour industrial agriculture over sustainable agroecological farming.

The report finds that climate and health policies in Brazil are currently poorly connected, though there is a growing movement toward integration. Stakeholders identify significant barriers, including political polarization, a lack of risk perception, and institutional silos. However, they see opportunities in the upcoming COP30, the wide reach of the Unified Health System (SUS), and Brazil's renewable energy strengths. Recommended strategies include improving scientific communication, adopting 'Planetary Health' and 'One Health' frameworks, and increasing intersectoral governance to create a more resilient national health and climate infrastructure.

The document examines the socio-economic challenges of the energy transition in South Africa and Brazil, focusing on the gap between decarbonisation goals and the actual reskilling of vulnerable workforces. In South Africa, the transition is complicated by a heavy reliance on coal for electricity and high unemployment, while Brazil faces challenges in balancing its clean energy mix with high emissions from agriculture and deforestation. Both nations struggle with structural inequality and the need for robust social protection systems to ensure that the shift to green industries does not exacerbate existing poverty or exclude informal workers.

The author contends that the global food system has reached 'peak land' and that decoupling agricultural land use from food production allows for the retirement of marginal land. By paying farmers to stop farming unproductive areas, the document suggests that environmental services can be restored and GHG emissions reduced by 20-40% if 5% of farmland is retired by 2030 and 10% by 2050.

Mighty Earth argues that a new law in Mato Grosso, Brazil, which penalizes companies participating in the Soy Moratorium by restricting tax benefits, undermines efforts to prevent deforestation in the Amazon and Cerrado. The organization highlights that the Soy Moratorium, established in 2006, contributed to a 69% reduction in deforestation across 76 monitored municipalities between 2009 and 2022. The statement warns that this legislative move threatens corporate deforestation-free commitments and conflicts with international regulations like the EUDR.

The proposal seeks USD 999,998.93 to create a centralized Secretariat for the Brazil Climate and Ecological Transformation Investment Platform (BIP), hosted by the National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES). The BIP aims to bridge the gap between climate-positive projects and investors to help Brazil meet its NDC target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 53.1% by 2030. The project focuses on three priority areas: Nature-based Climate Solutions, Industry and Mobility, and Energy. Key activities include developing a project pipeline, creating innovative financial mechanisms, and establishing ICT infrastructure to facilitate public-private collaboration.