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A report by Zero Carbon Analytics quantifies the economic risk to Europe-bound Brazilian soy exports caused by declining river levels in the Amazon. The analysis indicates that by mid-century, up to USD 1 billion in annual soy trade passing through the ports of Manaus and Santarém could be exposed to disruption due to critically low river flows driven by climate change and deforestation.

This report by the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI/PUC-Rio) analyzes the financing of sustainable agriculture in the Brazilian Cerrado, with a specific focus on the Matopiba region. It evaluates the effectiveness of subsidized rural credit and innovative blended finance mechanisms in aligning agricultural production with zero-deforestation and sustainability goals.

This report by Climate Policy Initiative/Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (CPI/PUC-RIO) analyzes the financial architecture supporting agriculture in Brazil's Cerrado biome, with a specific focus on the MATOPIBA region. It evaluates the effectiveness of subsidized rural credit and emerging blended-finance instruments in aligning agricultural production with zero-deforestation and sustainability goals.

This executive summary by the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI/PUC-Rio) analyzes agricultural financing in the Cerrado biome and the Matopiba region. It finds that while financial flows are significant, the current architecture fails to align with sustainability and zero-deforestation goals due to high concentration among large producers and institutions, limited scale of sustainable credit, and insufficient territorial coverage.

A briefing by Zero Carbon Analytics detailing how soy-driven deforestation in Brazil's Cerrado biome reduces regional rainfall and agricultural productivity, creating a paradox where individual farmer profits are outweighed by regional economic losses and global supply chain risks.

This report by the Climate Policy Initiative evaluates the effectiveness of Brazil's ABC Recuperação credit line in recovering degraded pastures, focusing on the Cerrado biome. Using satellite imagery and econometric analysis of operations between 2016 and 2018, the study finds that the credit's impact on pasture recovery is modest, with severe degradation remaining largely unchanged and some pasture being converted to crops rather than recovered. The report highlights the critical role of technical assistance and soil type in achieving results and suggests that the program contributed minimally to the ABC Plan's 2020 recovery targets.

An evaluation of Brazil's ABC Recuperação credit line in the Cerrado biome found that the program has had minimal impact on recovering degraded pastures and failed to significantly improve pasture quality. While technical assistance was linked to a 6 percentage point reduction in degraded areas, the overall program contributed only 2.5% toward the 2020 recovery target. The study also found evidence of deforestation occurring prior to credit issuance and recommends strengthening monitoring, improving pre-credit eligibility evaluations, and combining credit with risk management and technical assistance.

This report by the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI/PUC-Rio) evaluates the effectiveness of the 'ABC Recuperação' credit line, a subsidized financing instrument designed to restore degraded pastures in Brazil. Focusing on the Cerrado biome for operations between 2016 and 2018, the study uses satellite imagery and econometric analysis to determine if the credit led to actual pasture recovery or land-use changes. The findings indicate that the credit's impact is modest, with little evidence of recovery in severely degraded areas and a tendency for the credit to facilitate the conversion of high-vigor pastures into agriculture rather than restoring low-vigor ones.

An evaluation of the ABC Recuperação credit line in the Brazilian Cerrado reveals very low effectiveness in recovering degraded pastures, with most areas remaining unchanged and some having been deforested prior to receiving funds. While technical assistance significantly improved outcomes, the credit line contributed to only 2.5% of the 2020 recovery goal. The report recommends strengthening post-credit monitoring, improving pre-credit assessments to prevent funding recently deforested land, and integrating credit with technical assistance and risk management tools.

This policy brief by the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI/PUC-RIO) examines the link between subsidized rural credit and deforestation in Brazil between 2020 and 2022. The analysis reveals that a small number of large properties receive a disproportionate share of subsidized funds while being responsible for significant deforestation, suggesting that current economic incentives are misaligned with Brazil's environmental and climate goals.

This report by the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) analyzes the regulatory framework of the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) aimed at combating deforestation and ecosystem conversion. It details the BCB's transition toward sustainable finance through the 'Agenda BC#', specifically focusing on the integration of social, environmental, and climate risks into the National Financial System (SFN) and the implementation of strict environmental requirements for rural credit.

This report by the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) analyzes the regulatory efforts of the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) to combat deforestation and ecosystem conversion. It details the BCB's integration of sustainability into its 'BC# Agenda', the implementation of social, environmental, and climate risk management for financial institutions, and specific restrictions on rural credit for non-compliant producers. The document also provides context on the drivers of land-use change in the Amazon and Cerrado biomes and offers policy recommendations to further align the national financial system with environmental conservation goals.

This policy brief, produced by Transforma and WWF, advocates for increased policy coherence and synergies between the three Rio Conventions (Climate Change, Biodiversity, and Desertification) ahead of COP30 in Belém do Pará, Brazil. It emphasizes that integrating national plans for climate mitigation, adaptation, and biodiversity is essential for efficient resource use and effective environmental governance, particularly in Latin America and the Caribbean.

This policy brief by the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI/PUC-Rio) analyzes the impact of the European Union Deforestation-Free Regulation (EUDR) on Brazilian agribusiness. It examines how Brazil's existing environmental policies, such as the Forest Code and various monitoring systems, align with the EUDR's requirements and identifies the opportunities and challenges for Brazil to maintain and expand its market share in the European Union.

The Yacarantã Collective in Rio Manso, Brazil, promotes syntropic agriculture to restore biodiversity and ensure food sovereignty. After an initial phase of training for affluent visitors, the collective pivoted to support local rural communities devastated by a 2019 mining dam collapse. This resulted in the creation of the 'Margaridas' women's group, which manages a 2,000-square-meter community agroforestry system with over 400 seedlings and 30 types of vegetables.

This report by the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI/PUC-Rio) analyzes forest replenishment (reposição florestal) legislation in the Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado biomes. It argues that current implementation is outdated, focusing on biomass supply for markets rather than ecological compensation for biodiversity loss, and highlights significant failures in the management of replenishment funds and recent legislative setbacks in Goiás.

This report by the Climate Policy Initiative and PUC-Rio provides a baseline analysis of smallholders in Brazil's Caatinga and Cerrado biomes to inform a 'rural just transition.' It highlights the socioeconomic vulnerabilities of small-scale farmers, the disparities in productivity and resource access between the two biomes, and the need for tailored policies that integrate social dimensions with climate mitigation to ensure that the transition to sustainable agriculture does not exacerbate existing inequalities.

This report maps family farmers in Brazil's Caatinga and Cerrado biomes, highlighting a stark divide in productivity and vulnerability. While Cerrado farmers have larger plots and higher yields, Caatinga farmers face extreme poverty, high illiteracy (over 50%), and a heavy reliance on subsistence farming and cisterns for water. The report argues that a 'just rural transition' must move beyond generic agricultural policies to provide targeted social support for the most vulnerable and 'leapfrog' technological opportunities for those interested in commercializing sustainable, low-carbon produce.

This report by the Climate Policy Initiative provides a baseline analysis of smallholders in Brazil's Caatinga and Cerrado biomes to inform a 'rural just transition.' It highlights significant disparities in productivity, resource access, and socioeconomic vulnerability between the two regions, arguing that a one-size-fits-all agricultural policy is insufficient. The analysis emphasizes that smallholders in the Caatinga are particularly prone to poverty and subsistence farming, while those in the Cerrado are more integrated into commercial markets, though both face barriers to adopting sustainable, low-carbon production methods.

A study of soy farmers in Brazil's Matopiba region finds that land-use decisions are driven by profit and legal permissiveness rather than sustainability, leading to the erasure of the biodiverse Cerrado savanna. The authors conclude that voluntary conservation efforts are insufficient and that strict regulatory enforcement and supply-chain requirements are necessary to prevent further deforestation.