Managing a Just Transition: Reskilling of Affected Communities in Fossil Fuel Intensive Sectors

The document examines the socio-economic challenges of the energy transition in South Africa and Brazil, focusing on the gap between decarbonisation goals and the actual reskilling of vulnerable workforces. In South Africa, the transition is complicated by a heavy reliance on coal for electricity and high unemployment, while Brazil faces challenges in balancing its clean energy mix with high emissions from agriculture and deforestation. Both nations struggle with structural inequality and the need for robust social protection systems to ensure that the shift to green industries does not exacerbate existing poverty or exclude informal workers.

• South Africa's electricity sector is heavily dependent on coal, which accounted for approximately 80–83% of generation in 2024, with the state utility Eskom operating 39.8GW of coal-fired capacity.
• The transition in South Africa risks significant job losses, with nearly 90,000 direct coal sector jobs and 12,000 positions at Eskom coal-fired power stations that cannot be easily replaced by the renewable energy sector.
• South Africa's automotive industry faces a risk of 100,000 job losses in the Eastern Cape and another half a million associated jobs if it fails to transition from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to electric vehicles (EV).
• South Africa's Just Energy Transition Investment Plan estimates a total need of ZAR 1.4 trillion (approximately $81 billion) for implementation between 2023 and 2027, but only ZAR 2.7 billion (approximately $157 million) has been allocated specifically to skills development.
• Brazil's energy mix is relatively clean, but the country remains a top 10 global GHG emitter due to agriculture and deforestation, particularly in the Amazon and Cerrado biomes.
• Brazil has successfully created over 2 million green jobs, with nearly 1.5 million in the renewable energy sector, though many workers in the informal economy, such as waste recyclers, remain underpaid.
• Brazil's Bolsa Verde program provides a financial top-up to the Bolsa Familia cash transfer to incentivize sustainable practices among rural poor households, which helps preserve forests for carbon sequestration.
• Both South Africa and Brazil face 'energy poverty' despite high electrification rates; in South Africa, 43% of households cannot meet basic energy needs, and in Brazil, deep inequalities limit access to affordable energy.
• The implementation of South Africa's Just Transition Framework in Mpumalanga has been uneven due to institutional fragmentation, funding gaps, and a lack of coordination between different levels of government.

APA

MC LEAN, J. (2025). Managing a Just Transition: Reskilling of Affected Communities in Fossil Fuel Intensive Sectors. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/CNRP_SABTT-Working-Paper-3_Mc-Lean_Just-Transition-and-Skills.pdf

Chicago

MC LEAN, JORDAN. Managing a Just Transition: Reskilling of Affected Communities in Fossil Fuel Intensive Sectors. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2025. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/CNRP_SABTT-Working-Paper-3_Mc-Lean_Just-Transition-and-Skills.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=MC LEAN |first1=JORDAN |title=Managing a Just Transition: Reskilling of Affected Communities in Fossil Fuel Intensive Sectors |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=2025 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/CNRP_SABTT-Working-Paper-3_Mc-Lean_Just-Transition-and-Skills.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{mclean2025managing, author = {MC LEAN, JORDAN}, title = {{Managing a Just Transition: Reskilling of Affected Communities in Fossil Fuel Intensive Sectors}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2025}, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/CNRP_SABTT-Working-Paper-3_Mc-Lean_Just-Transition-and-Skills.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }