Deforestation in Brazil’s Cerrado reduces soy production and threatens supply chains

Analysis of 840 municipalities in the Cerrado shows that land clearing for soy creates a 3:1 productivity loss, where climate spillovers outweigh the gains from new farmland. While individual farmers profit by externalizing costs, the region lost USD 9.4 billion in potential soy production between 2013 and 2023 due to deforestation-induced drying. Global importers, particularly China and Germany, face significant supply chain vulnerabilities, with China's sourcing regions losing USD 5.0 billion in annual production capacity. The report argues for urgent conservation and intensification strategies, noting that most municipalities are still below a critical climate threshold where protection delivers maximum benefit.

• Deforestation in the Cerrado creates a regional productivity paradox where the climate-driven losses on existing farmland outweigh the gains from new soy plots by a ratio of 3:1.
• Between 2013 and 2023, the Cerrado region lost approximately USD 9.4 billion in potential soy production—nearly 8% of its total output—due to deforestation-induced climate impacts since 2008.
• The negative impact of land clearing on soy production is significantly amplified during wet years; clearing 1,000 hectares causes a loss of 14,627 tonnes of soy in wet years compared to only 1,213 tonnes in dry years.
• China faces the highest absolute supply chain risk, with its sourcing regions in the Cerrado losing USD 5.0 billion in annual soy production capacity between 2013 and 2023.
• Germany has the highest per-tonne exposure intensity among importers; every tonne of soy Germany imports is linked to USD 43 of lost productive capacity in its sourcing regions.
• EU member states face varying risks of non-compliance with the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), with Romania showing the highest exposure intensity at USD 72 per tonne based on 2022 data.
• There is a critical climate threshold in the Cerrado where the first hectares of clearing cause the most severe drying; most municipalities currently remain below this point, meaning immediate conservation can still prevent maximum damage.

APA

Bentley-McKune, J. (2025). Deforestation in Brazil’s Cerrado reduces soy production and threatens supply chains. Zero Carbon Analytics. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/deforestation-in-brazils-cerrado-reduces-soy-production-and-threatens-supply-chains/

Chicago

Bentley-McKune, Joanne. Deforestation in Brazil’s Cerrado reduces soy production and threatens supply chains. Zero Carbon Analytics, 2025. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/deforestation-in-brazils-cerrado-reduces-soy-production-and-threatens-supply-chains/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bentley-McKune |first1=Joanne |title=Deforestation in Brazil’s Cerrado reduces soy production and threatens supply chains |publisher=Zero Carbon Analytics |date=17 November 2025 |url=https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/deforestation-in-brazils-cerrado-reduces-soy-production-and-threatens-supply-chains/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bentleymckune2025deforestation, author = {Bentley-McKune, Joanne}, title = {{Deforestation in Brazil’s Cerrado reduces soy production and threatens supply chains}}, institution = {Zero Carbon Analytics}, year = {2025}, month = nov, url = {https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/deforestation-in-brazils-cerrado-reduces-soy-production-and-threatens-supply-chains/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }