Deforestation in Brazil’s Cerrado reduces soy production and threatens supply chains

A briefing by Zero Carbon Analytics detailing how soy-driven deforestation in Brazil's Cerrado biome reduces regional rainfall and agricultural productivity, creating a paradox where individual farmer profits are outweighed by regional economic losses and global supply chain risks.

• Deforestation in the Cerrado creates a regional productivity loss that outweighs the gains from new farmland by a ratio of 3:1. Between 2013 and 2023, if no land had been cleared for soy since 2008, the region would have produced an additional USD 9.4 billion of soy, representing nearly 8% of the region's total output for that period.
• The climate impacts of land clearing are significantly amplified during wet years. Clearing 1,000 hectares during a wet year results in a loss of 14,627 tonnes of soy production, compared to only 1,213 tonnes lost during dry years—a 12-fold difference.
• While land clearing is profitable for individual farmers who externalize spillover costs, it is economically destructive at the municipal scale. For every tonne of soy produced on new land, three tonnes are lost from existing fields due to climate spillovers.
• China faces the highest absolute exposure to productivity losses caused by Cerrado deforestation, with clearing destroying approximately USD 5.0 billion of annual soy production capacity in its sourcing regions between 2013 and 2023.
• Germany has the highest per-tonne exposure intensity among importers; every tonne of soy Germany imports is linked to USD 43 of lost productive capacity. Shifting one million tonnes of imports toward zero-deforestation suppliers would preserve USD 43 million in regional productivity.
• EU member states face varying risks of non-compliance with the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which prohibits imports from land deforested since December 31, 2020. Romania shows the highest exposure intensity at USD 72 per tonne, while France has the highest absolute exposure at USD 45.8 million.
• There is a critical climate threshold in the Cerrado where the first hectares of clearing cause the most severe disruption. Most municipalities that experienced clearing during the study period remain below this inflection point, meaning current conservation policies could still effectively prevent further damage.

APA

Bentley-McKune, J. (2025). Deforestation in Brazil’s Cerrado reduces soy production and threatens supply chains. Zero Carbon Analytics. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/deforestation-in-brazils-cerrado-reduces-soy-production-and-threatens-supply-chains/

Chicago

Bentley-McKune, Joanne. Deforestation in Brazil’s Cerrado reduces soy production and threatens supply chains. Zero Carbon Analytics, 2025. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/deforestation-in-brazils-cerrado-reduces-soy-production-and-threatens-supply-chains/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bentley-McKune |first1=Joanne |title=Deforestation in Brazil’s Cerrado reduces soy production and threatens supply chains |publisher=Zero Carbon Analytics |date=17 November 2025 |url=https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/deforestation-in-brazils-cerrado-reduces-soy-production-and-threatens-supply-chains/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bentleymckune2025deforestation, author = {Bentley-McKune, Joanne}, title = {{Deforestation in Brazil’s Cerrado reduces soy production and threatens supply chains}}, institution = {Zero Carbon Analytics}, year = {2025}, month = nov, url = {https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/deforestation-in-brazils-cerrado-reduces-soy-production-and-threatens-supply-chains/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }