Search Climate Insights Directory
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Ethiopia: Underestimated Regional Power
The document highlights Ethiopia's significant investment in infrastructure, spending $1.3 billion annually (10% of GDP), with a focus on energy and transport. It notes that Ethiopia requires 8700 megawatts of generating plant over the next decade to double its capacity. While Kenya is often seen as the regional anchor, the author argues that Ethiopia's growth rates since 2005/06 and its strategic importance make it a potential regional powerhouse. However, Ethiopia faces fundamental business challenges including foreign currency regulations, inflation, and a lack of competitiveness in its manufacturing sector, which contributes less than 10 percent of total merchandise exports.
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Document type: Research paper
LE SCRUTIN ELECTORAL DE 2011 EN RDC ET AU-DELA
The 2011 elections in the DRC were marked by significant logistical failures, allegations of fraud, and persistent insecurity, particularly in the east. While Joseph Kabila was declared the winner and consolidated power, the process was criticized by international observers and the opposition for lacking transparency. Post-election dynamics have been characterized by continued instability in the Kivu regions, including military mutinies and the emergence of the M23 group, alongside deep-seated socio-economic poverty and ethnic polarization.
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Document type: Report
Food Security in Southern Africa: A loaf in hand is worth two in the oven?
The briefing examines food insecurity in Africa, highlighting that sub-Saharan countries are the most food insecure globally. It discusses the role of the Comprehensive African Agricultural Development Programme (CAADP), the G-8's New Alliance for Food Security and Nutrition, and the challenges posed by trade barriers and the Doha Round impasse. The authors argue that while trade is essential, it must be part of a comprehensive policy package including agricultural investment and financial innovation to ensure long-term food security.
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Document type: Briefing
Shenimed
The document details the obstacles Shenimed encounters in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, including systemic corruption in customs and certification processes, high tax burdens, and poor transport infrastructure. It highlights how a lack of reliable electricity forced the company to cease local production in Bukavu and shift to imports from Tanzania. Financial challenges are noted, specifically currency instability of the Congolese franc and a shortage of loans leading to cash flow difficulties. The company advocates for reduced customs procedures, the removal of non-tariff barriers, and better state-private sector consultation to improve the business environment.
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Document type: Case study
Ten Years of a Contrasted Union: The African Union at the Crossroads or Business as Usual
The African Union (AU) has shifted the continental focus from decolonisation to development and economic integration. While it has established institutional infrastructure, implemented peacekeeping missions, and promoted democratic norms—such as refusing to recognise coup-led governments—it faces a structural impasse in achieving developmental goals. The author argues that the AU must move beyond ambitious declarations toward pragmatic outcomes, specifically by translating governance into developmental deliverables, strengthening regional economic communities like ECOWAS, and clarifying leadership principles for the AU Commission.
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Document type: Research paper
Timber Trade in Africa’s Great Lakes: The Road From Beni, DRC to Kampala, Uganda
The report examines the trade of tropical timber from the eastern DRC through Uganda to regional and international markets. It finds that approximately 80% of timber leaving the eastern DRC enters Uganda, where it is either consumed locally or transited to Kenya and South Sudan. The trade is characterized by high levels of informality, significant revenue loss for the DRC, and a profit structure that heavily favors middlemen and politically connected traders over primary producers and transporters. While international markets are increasingly regulated by frameworks like EU FLEGT and the US Lacey Act, regional trade remains largely unregulated due to timber shortages in East Africa. The report highlights the role of the Northern Transit Corridor in facilitating these flows and suggests that bottom-up regional cooperation, similar to the Albertine Rift Strategic Planning Process, could improve sustainability and governance.
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Document type: Report
THE 2011 DRC ELECTION POLLS AND BEYOND
The 2011 elections in the DRC were marked by logistical failures, allegations of fraud, and political radicalization. While Joseph Kabila was declared the winner and maintained a parliamentary majority, the process was criticized by international observers and the domestic opposition. Post-election stability has been undermined by renewed insecurity in the east, specifically army mutinies and tensions with Rwanda, alongside persistent socioeconomic hardship and a lack of national reconciliation.
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Document type: Report
Agriculture and Climate Change: Post-Durban issues for negotiators
The document analyzes the first official recognition of agriculture by the UNFCCC at COP 17 in Durban. It reviews submissions from 21 parties to the SBSTA, highlighting a tension between developed countries' focus on scientific mitigation and developing countries' priority on adaptation and food security. The briefing argues that agriculture requires a unique approach to emission reductions—potentially based on efficiency per unit of production—due to the necessity of increasing food supplies for a growing global population. It identifies key points of divergence, including trade implications and the role of smallholder farmers, while suggesting areas of consensus such as the link between agriculture and food security.
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Document type: Briefing
Africa’s international borders as potential sources of conflict and future threats to peace and security
The document argues that while governance-related intra-state conflicts have become more prevalent than direct inter-state border disputes since the late 1980s, Africa's porous and artificial colonial borders continue to threaten peace and security. These boundaries facilitate the 'regionalisation of conflict' by allowing domestic instability to spill over into neighbouring states, as seen in the Great Lakes region, the Horn of Africa, and West Africa. The author contends that the African Union's (AU) policy of maintaining the colonial status quo (the 'inviolability of national boundaries') has not eliminated tensions. To address this, the AU Border Programme (AUBP) seeks to transform borders from 'barriers' into 'bridges' through proper delimitation and demarcation, which the author identifies as a necessary precondition for successful continental integration and the structural prevention of conflict.
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Document type: Research paper
China in Kenya: Addressing Counterfeit Goods and Construction Sector Imbalances
The document examines the multifaceted relationship between China and Kenya, highlighting a trade imbalance where Kenya exports raw materials and imports value-added, often counterfeit, products. It analyzes how Chinese construction firms provide efficiency and quality but create unfair competition for local contractors through government-backed financial advantages. The paper evaluates Kenyan legislative responses, such as the Anti-Counterfeit Act of 2008 and the National Construction Authority Act 2010, and suggests regional coordination within the East African Community (EAC) to mitigate negative effects.
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Document type: Research paper
Political and Economic Drivers of Regional Integration in Africa: A Case Study of the Democratic Republic of Congo
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) maintains membership in four Regional Economic Communities (RECs)—COMESA, SADC, ECCAS, and CEPGL—but plays a negligible role in all of them. Despite data showing the DRC is more economically integrated with southern and eastern Africa (SADC and COMESA), the government has shown a preference for integration within the central African region (ECCAS-CEMAC). This contradiction is attributed to political drivers, such as regime survival and external pressure from the EU and Belgium, rather than economic logic. The DRC's integration is further hampered by overlapping memberships, political instability, a lack of industrial diversification, and poor internal transport infrastructure that leaves its provinces more integrated with neighbors than with the national economy.
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Document type: Research paper
Globalisation and human rights in Africa
This report documents the 5th African Conference of Commandants (ACoC), held from 28–30 November 2011 in Gaborone, Botswana. The conference brought together commandants from African Staff Colleges to discuss the impact of globalisation on human rights, the proliferation of small arms, gender equality in the military, and the standardisation of military education to support the African Standby Force (ASF) and peace support operations (PSOs).
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Document type: Report
KNOWLEDGE EMPOWERS AFRICA
The document argues that increasing Africa's education spending from 4% to 4.8% of GDP could lead to universal primary education by 2030 and universal basic education by 2035. Using the International Futures (IFs) model, the authors project that this investment would add US$ 2.5 trillion to Africa's GDP by 2050, while significantly reducing child malnutrition, extreme poverty, and the probability of state failure. However, the report notes that these gains require a long-term horizon and a reallocation of government funds away from other sectors like health and the military.
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Document type: Policy brief
Beyond power sharing institutional options for an afghan peace process
The report analyzes the challenges of the Afghan conflict, emphasizing the need for a proactive, inclusive peace process. It suggests that successful negotiations require third-party facilitation, a structured negotiating framework, and transitional arrangements to manage security and governance. The authors argue against narrow power-sharing between elites, proposing instead a multidimensional approach involving power-sharing, power-dividing, power-creating, and power-diffusing mechanisms across political, military, territorial, and economic dimensions to ensure long-term stability and legitimacy.
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Document type: Report
Dimensions Regionales des Conflits dans les Grands Lacs
The document reports on a regional workshop organized by the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR), the UN Regional Centre on Small Arms (RECSA), and the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in Nairobi. The workshop focused on the regional dimensions of conflicts in the Great Lakes Region, specifically addressing the roles of clandestine armed groups, illegal resource exploitation, and cross-border ethnicity in prolonging violence. Participants from Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, and Kenya committed to developing initiatives for inclusive democracy, good governance, and the sustainable use of natural resources. The ISS was mandated to coordinate a partners' meeting to create a regional roadmap for sustainable peace.
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Document type: Report
TAPS AND TOILETS HOW GREATER ACCESS CAN RADICALLY IMPROVE AFRICA’S FUTURE
The document argues that achieving an annual improvement of nearly 2 percentage points in water and sanitation access across Africa would significantly reduce child malnutrition and infant mortality, increase GDP, and lower the probability of state failure. It identifies that such progress requires an additional public investment of nearly US $35 billion over 40 years, primarily targeting sanitation. The analysis highlights that success in this sector is driven by public policy, institutional management, and finance rather than technology, citing examples from Burkina Faso and Ethiopia.
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Document type: Policy brief
Uganda: analysis of and reflection on the 2011 elections
The 2011 Ugandan elections resulted in a fourth term for President Yoweri Museveni, who secured 68.38% of the vote. While some regional observers deemed the process free and fair, international bodies like the EU and AU cited widespread irregularities, including voter bribery, ballot stuffing, and intimidation. The report highlights significant internal tensions, such as the conflict with the Buganda kingdom and the potential for resource-based conflict following oil discoveries in Buliisa and Amaru districts. Regionally, Museveni's victory maintains his influence in the East African Community and his commitment to an East African Federation, despite ongoing security threats from Al-Shabaab and allegations of interference in the DRC.
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Document type: Report
Sexual Violence in Civil Wars, 1989–2009
The report outlines four primary challenges in studying wartime sexual violence: definitional inconsistency, difficulties in measuring magnitude, the need for variables beyond scale (such as perpetrator and victim identity), and inherent biases in data sources. To address these, the authors recommend adopting the International Criminal Court's definition of sexual violence, using severity categories instead of numerical estimates, and employing data triangulation. A pilot study covering 20 African countries demonstrated that global data collection is attainable, though it highlighted the need for time-variant and location-specific data to develop early-warning systems.
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Document type: Report
Conservación Sensible al Conflicto
The manual defines Conflict-Sensitive Conservation (CSC) as the programming and execution of conservation actions that account for the causes, actors, and impacts of conflict. It outlines a three-step organizational process: assessing institutional capacity, assigning human resources (such as a CSC Champion and Team), and adopting guiding principles. For field projects, it details a two-step operational process: conducting a conflict analysis using tools like conflict trees, conflict maps, and stakeholder profiles, and subsequently designing and monitoring CSC solutions. The guide emphasizes that conservation can either inadvertently fuel conflict—by restricting resource access or creating unequal benefit distribution—or support peace by addressing root causes of environmental degradation and fostering cooperation.
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Document type: Guide
Regional dimensions of conflict in the Great Lakes
The document details a workshop on the regional dimensions of conflict in the Great Lakes Region, analyzing how factors like the proliferation of small arms and light weapons (SALW), illegal exploitation of lootable natural resources, and forced displacement create a self-perpetuating cycle of instability. It examines the role of regional bodies like the ICGLR and EAC in promoting peace and highlights the critical need for good governance, human rights protections, and coordinated regional strategies to address the root causes of violence.
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Document type: Report