KNOWLEDGE EMPOWERS AFRICA

The document argues that increasing Africa's education spending from 4% to 4.8% of GDP could lead to universal primary education by 2030 and universal basic education by 2035. Using the International Futures (IFs) model, the authors project that this investment would add US$ 2.5 trillion to Africa's GDP by 2050, while significantly reducing child malnutrition, extreme poverty, and the probability of state failure. However, the report notes that these gains require a long-term horizon and a reallocation of government funds away from other sectors like health and the military.

• Increasing education spending from 4% to 4.8% of Africa's GDP could enable the continent to achieve universal primary education by 2030 and universal basic education by 2035, with upper-secondary enrolment reaching 85% by 2050.
• The projected economic return on this investment is substantial, with an estimated US$ 2.5 trillion addition to Africa's GDP by 2050, though the cumulative cost of the increased spending would exceed US$ 480 billion through that same year.
• Investment in education is characterized by a long payback period, typically taking 25 to 45 years to realize major benefits, with incremental GDP only surpassing increased investment by 2028 in the modeled scenario.
• By 2050, the improved education scenario is forecast to reduce the number of malnourished children by 3.5 million and the number of people living on less than US$ 1.25 per day by 60 million.
• The probability of state failure across the continent would decrease by nearly 8% by 2050, with the most significant reductions in instability forecast for Niger, Gambia, and Comoros.
• To fund these educational improvements through domestic budget reallocation, spending in other government sectors—including health, military, infrastructure, and administration—would need to be reduced proportionately.
• Historically, Africa has disproportionately allocated resources to higher education, spending approximately 44 times more per student at the tertiary level than at the primary level.

APA

Gehring, K., Irfan, M. T., McLennan, P., Moyer, J. D., Selebalo, H., & Torkelson, E. (2011). KNOWLEDGE EMPOWERS AFRICA. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/No2Dec2011.pdf

Chicago

Gehring, Keith, Mohammod T Irfan, Patrick McLennan, Jonathan D Moyer, Hopolang Selebalo, and Erin Torkelson. KNOWLEDGE EMPOWERS AFRICA. Institute for Security Studies, 2011. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/No2Dec2011.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Gehring |first1=Keith |last2=Irfan |first2=Mohammod T |last3=McLennan |first3=Patrick |last4=Moyer |first4=Jonathan D |last5=Selebalo |first5=Hopolang |last6=Torkelson |first6=Erin |title=KNOWLEDGE EMPOWERS AFRICA |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=1 December 2011 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/No2Dec2011.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{gehring2011knowledge, author = {Gehring, Keith and Irfan, Mohammod T and McLennan, Patrick and Moyer, Jonathan D and Selebalo, Hopolang and Torkelson, Erin}, title = {{KNOWLEDGE EMPOWERS AFRICA}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2011}, month = dec, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/No2Dec2011.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }