KNOWLEDGE EMPOWERS AFRICA

This policy brief by the Institute for Security Studies examines the potential socio-economic impacts of increasing investment in basic education across Africa. Using the International Futures (IFs) modelling system, the authors simulate a scenario where African nations adopt the enrolment and completion growth rates of the continent's best-performing countries. The analysis suggests that a modest increase in GDP allocation to education could lead to significant long-term gains in GDP, poverty reduction, and public health, although these benefits would be realized over several decades.

• Increasing education spending from 4 per cent to 4.8 per cent of Africa's GDP could lead to universal primary education (97 per cent completion) by 2030 and universal basic education by 2035.
• The simulated investment of US$ 480 billion above the base case through 2050 is projected to increase Africa's GDP by US$ 2.5 trillion by 2050.
• Investment in education has a long payback period, with the incremental GDP only surpassing the increased investment by 2028, and the majority of benefits realized between 2030 and 2050.
• By 2050, the improved education scenario is forecast to reduce the number of malnourished children by 3.5 million and the number of people living on less than US$ 1.25 per day by 60 million.
• The probability of state failure in Africa is projected to decrease by nearly 8 per cent by 2050 under the improved scenario, with the most significant reductions forecast for Niger, Gambia, and Comoros.
• Historically, Africa has disproportionately allocated educational resources to tertiary education, spending approximately 44 times more per student at the tertiary level than at the primary level.
• To fund the increase in education spending without foreign aid, the model assumes proportional budget cuts in other government sectors, including the military, health, infrastructure, and administration.

APA

Gehring, K., Irfan, M. T., McLennan, P., Moyer, J. D., Selebalo, H., & Torkelson, E. (2011). KNOWLEDGE EMPOWERS AFRICA. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/No2Dec2011.pdf

Chicago

Gehring, Keith, Mohammod T Irfan, Patrick McLennan, Jonathan D Moyer, Hopolang Selebalo, and Erin Torkelson. KNOWLEDGE EMPOWERS AFRICA. Institute for Security Studies, 2011. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/No2Dec2011.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Gehring |first1=Keith |last2=Irfan |first2=Mohammod T |last3=McLennan |first3=Patrick |last4=Moyer |first4=Jonathan D |last5=Selebalo |first5=Hopolang |last6=Torkelson |first6=Erin |title=KNOWLEDGE EMPOWERS AFRICA |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=1 December 2011 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/No2Dec2011.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{gehring2011knowledge, author = {Gehring, Keith and Irfan, Mohammod T and McLennan, Patrick and Moyer, Jonathan D and Selebalo, Hopolang and Torkelson, Erin}, title = {{KNOWLEDGE EMPOWERS AFRICA}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2011}, month = dec, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/No2Dec2011.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }