Uganda: analysis of and reflection on the 2011 elections

The 2011 Ugandan elections resulted in a fourth term for President Yoweri Museveni, who secured 68.38% of the vote. While some regional observers deemed the process free and fair, international bodies like the EU and AU cited widespread irregularities, including voter bribery, ballot stuffing, and intimidation. The report highlights significant internal tensions, such as the conflict with the Buganda kingdom and the potential for resource-based conflict following oil discoveries in Buliisa and Amaru districts. Regionally, Museveni's victory maintains his influence in the East African Community and his commitment to an East African Federation, despite ongoing security threats from Al-Shabaab and allegations of interference in the DRC.

• President Yoweri Museveni won the 2011 presidential election with 68.38% of the vote, a significant increase in popularity compared to his 2006 result of 59.26%. His main rival, Dr Kizza Besigye, saw a decline in support, falling from 37.39% in 2006 to 26.01% in 2011.
• International observer groups, including the AU, EU, and Commonwealth, criticized the election for lacking a level playing field, citing the 'commercialisation of politics' through voter bribery and the abuse of state resources by the ruling NRM party.
• The election process was marred by several irregularities, including heavy police presence in opposition strongholds, unequal media coverage favoring the NRM, and instances of ballot stuffing, such as the seizure of 32 ballot boxes in mayoral elections containing pre-ticked papers for Peter Ssematimba.
• The discovery of oil in the Buliisa and Amaru districts has created fears of resource-based conflict, with analysts suggesting the transition to an oil economy could strain Uganda's polity and potentially lead to civil war.
• Internal political stability is threatened by unresolved tensions with the Kingdom of Buganda over federalism and land claims, as well as widespread poverty, with 51.53% of the population living below the poverty line according to 2010 UNDP data.
• Regionally, Museveni aims to establish a political federation of East African countries (including Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Burundi, and Rwanda) by 2012, and has indicated he will not leave power until this goal and greater African unity are achieved.
• Uganda faces ongoing security threats from the Al-Shabaab militia, which has bombed Kampala and threatened further attacks in response to Uganda's role as the largest troop contributor to the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM).

APA

Mpyisi, K., & Mwirichia, V. (2011). Uganda: analysis of and reflection on the 2011 elections. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/SitRep2011_5MayUganda.pdf

Chicago

Mpyisi, Kenneth, and Victoria Mwirichia. Uganda: analysis of and reflection on the 2011 elections. Institute for Security Studies, 2011. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/SitRep2011_5MayUganda.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Mpyisi |first1=Kenneth |last2=Mwirichia |first2=Victoria |title=Uganda: analysis of and reflection on the 2011 elections |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=5 May 2011 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/SitRep2011_5MayUganda.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{mpyisi2011uganda, author = {Mpyisi, Kenneth and Mwirichia, Victoria}, title = {{Uganda: analysis of and reflection on the 2011 elections}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2011}, month = may, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/SitRep2011_5MayUganda.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }