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The document reports that November 2025 was the third warmest on record globally and the fourth warmest for the contiguous U.S. It highlights a long-term trend of warming winters in the U.S., where the coldest day of the year has warmed by approximately 7°F since 1970. The briefing also notes significant regional anomalies, such as extreme warmth in Texas and heavy rainfall in southern California, while discussing the ongoing La Niña advisory and its expected impacts on weather patterns through early 2026.

The report finds that while PDB climate ambition has generally increased since the Paris Agreement, progress is uneven. A small group of high-ambition PDBs provides the vast majority of climate finance, while many others remain in 'limited' or 'minimal' ambition clusters. The report identifies systemic gaps in capacity building—specifically a lack of long-term, institution-wide support—and recommends a shift toward multi-year, sequenced technical assistance and the development of regional TA ecosystems to mobilize the trillions in assets held by less ambitious PDBs.

The report analyzes Russia's strategic use of climate-related disinformation to advance geopolitical goals. It details how the Kremlin exploits climate disasters in the West to stoke polarization, suppresses domestic environmental activism to prevent unrest, and manipulates narratives in the Arctic and Africa to secure economic and political influence. The document highlights the intersection of Russian influence with far-right rhetoric and the emerging threat of AI-driven disinformation, while arguing that subnational and international cooperation is essential to counter these efforts as US federal defenses weaken.

The paper examines the 'care crisis' in Africa, where unpaid care work—primarily performed by women—is economically invisible and underfunded due to debt burdens and austerity. It proposes a shift toward 'feminist fiscal justice' by adopting progressive taxation, wealth taxes, and integrated care systems, drawing on successful models from Uruguay, Colombia, and Costa Rica.

The report argues that the African Union Commission's reform, which reduced commissioners from eight to six, has led to institutional imbalances where crisis response overshadows conflict prevention. It highlights a significant funding gap for the new structure, costing an additional US$53 million. The document also analyzes the rise of military coups, attributing them to 'democratic subversions' such as the removal of term limits, and discusses the strain on Africa's humanitarian system due to conflict and climate shocks.

The document assesses the feasibility of using domestic fiscal tools—explicit fossil fuel subsidies (EFFS) and environmental taxes—to close Africa's climate finance gap, which is estimated at 5–10% of GDP. While these tools could contribute 1.7% and 1.1% of GDP respectively, the author argues they are insufficient to fully close the gap. The paper recommends establishing independent fuel reserve authorities to manage price volatility and suggests a gradual, long-term withdrawal of subsidies to avoid social unrest and inflation. It highlights that Africa's climate finance is heavily dependent on foreign sources and public funding compared to global averages.

The handbook traces G20 engagements with Africa from 2008 to 2025, noting a transition from ad hoc initiatives to structured partnerships, culminating in the African Union's permanent membership in 2023. While identifying successes in rural youth employment and financial inclusion, it highlights persistent implementation gaps in infrastructure and climate finance. The document maps G20 outcomes against AU Agenda 2063, finding strong alignment with economic integration but gaps in peace and institutional capacity. It also details South Africa's 2025 G20 presidency priorities, focusing on solidarity, equality, and sustainability through specific task forces on inclusive growth, food security, and AI.

The report finds that the world is off-track to meet all SDG7 targets by 2030. While electricity access has improved, Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for 85% of the remaining deficit. Clean cooking access is severely lagging, with 2.1 billion people lacking access. Renewable energy shares in total final energy consumption are stagnating, and energy intensity improvements are insufficient, requiring a 4% annual increase to meet goals.

The document argues that there are no credible pathways to tackle the climate crisis without trade policies aligned with the Paris Agreement. It identifies key areas for cooperation, including the management of climate-trade tensions (such as the EU's CBAM), the acceleration of clean energy transitions, and the decarbonization of industrial sectors like shipping and steel. A central theme is the need for 'climate justice,' ensuring that developing nations are not marginalized by green industrial policies or unilateral trade measures. The report proposes several mechanisms for progress, including the Integrated Forum on Climate Change and Trade (IFCCT) proposed for COP30, the 'greening' of Aid for Trade (AfT), and the development of regional green trade blocs like a potential arrangement within the RCEP. It emphasizes that a just transition requires bridging the gap between the WTO and UNFCCC, harmonizing carbon accounting standards, and increasing climate finance for adaptation in the Global South.

The document proposes that ECOWAS integrate forward-looking transitional justice into its climate governance to prevent the marginalization of women and rural communities. It argues that climate change in West Africa is a crisis of social justice, where historical inequities determine vulnerability. The author suggests that ECOWAS should reduce its reliance on unstable global mechanisms, such as the COP27 Loss and Damage Fund, by establishing regional structures like a gender-responsive minerals strategy and a Regional Climate Adaptation Fund for Women. The paper emphasizes that a just transition must move beyond procedural formality to address the 'why' of structural harms, including land access and resource governance.

South Africa's green technology transfer ecosystem is characterized by a comprehensive but fragmented policy landscape that creates tensions between social equity goals and climate urgency. While the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP) demonstrates successful public-private collaboration, other sectors struggle with institutional silos and a significant gap in funding for the commercialization of research. Key barriers include conflicting localisation requirements and data regulations that may act as non-tariff barriers to foreign investment.

South Africa's 2025 G20 presidency has partially succeeded in raising global awareness of Africa's difficulties in accessing affordable development finance, though it has failed to secure concrete agreements on IMF reform or the restructuring of the G20 Common Framework. The document highlights systemic barriers including credit rating agency practices and the slow, creditor-biased nature of debt restructuring for countries like Chad, Ethiopia, Ghana, and Zambia. To maintain momentum, South Africa has established an African Expert Panel to advise President Cyril Ramaphosa on technical recommendations for finance and IMF governance.

Nigeria holds 33 percent of Africa's gas reserves and is implementing the 'Decade of Gas' (2021-2030) to transition toward a gas-powered economy. While the country is a top global LNG exporter, it faces significant internal challenges, including high gas flaring (188 Bcf in 2022), inadequate pipeline infrastructure, and poor payment discipline in the power sector. The document argues that natural gas can serve as a bridge fuel toward Nigeria's net-zero 2060 goal and a catalyst for African industrialization in sectors like fertilizers and petrochemicals. However, the global energy transition is leading International Oil Companies (IOCs) to divest from onshore assets, and geopolitical instability—specifically Niger's 2023 coup—threatens major cross-border projects like the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline.

The document contends that democracy in Africa often exists in form but lacks substance because it is built upon colonial socio-economic structures that preserve elite control. Using foresight methods and a case study of the South African National Dialogue, it argues that political liberation has not led to structural transformation, resulting in 'economic entrapment'. To resolve this, the author proposes a shift toward 'solidarity economics'—prioritizing community ownership and social equity over neoliberal profit—alongside civic education, a National Competency Framework for public service, and 'living constitutions' that allow for periodic renewal and citizen recall rights.

The IEJ welcomes the G20 South Africa Summit's Leaders' Declaration as a diplomatic achievement but notes that the consensus-based process resulted in a 'lowest common denominator' outcome. While the IEJ acknowledges the mainstreaming of issues like critical minerals and sustainable industrial policy, it argues the declaration falls short on urgent priorities including climate finance, debt sustainability, and gender equality. The IEJ emphasizes that the success of the presidency depends on translating these commitments into tangible improvements for the African continent.

The document explores Africa's potential to become a leader in synthetic carbon dioxide removal, particularly through direct air capture (DAC). It identifies the East African Rift, especially Kenya, as an ideal hub due to its abundant geothermal energy and basaltic rock formations suitable for permanent carbon mineralization. The report details current projects, such as Octavia Carbon's Project Hummingbird, and outlines necessary innovations in energy efficiency, geological storage, and project development to scale the industry. It also emphasizes the role of voluntary carbon markets and supportive regulatory frameworks in overcoming financing gaps for first-of-a-kind projects.

The document outlines five thematic areas for G20 action to support Africa's development: digital sovereignty and AI governance, trade resilience through the AfCFTA, 'whole-of-society' just energy transitions, reform of the global financial architecture, and the pursuit of the 2030 and 2063 sustainability agendas amidst shifting geopolitical tensions.

The paper examines the transition of African carbon markets from the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) legacy to the implementation of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. It contrasts an 'export-led' approach, which risks exploitative 'carbon grabs' and low pricing (USD 1-3 per tonne), with a 'sovereign-first' approach that uses carbon markets as tools for national decarbonization. The author proposes a five-pillar readiness framework—covering policy, registries, authorization, safeguards, and finance—to help countries move toward domestic compliance markets. Current progress varies across the continent, with South Africa and Egypt adopting domestic-focused 'Paris' mindsets, while Ghana and Rwanda remain more export-led, and Kenya and Nigeria occupying hybrid positions.

The document analyzes the convergence of African and European interests in reforming a strained multilateral system, specifically focusing on the upcoming AU-EU summit in Luanda. It highlights the shared need for a more representative global order and the urgent need to operationalize UN Security Council Resolution 2719 to provide predictable funding for AU peace operations.

South Africa's G20 presidency has focused on four key priorities for Africa: debt sustainability, climate and energy transitions, disaster resilience, and the sustainable use of critical minerals. While some progress was made on disaster resilience, consensus on climate finance remained elusive. The presidency also sought to address the high cost of capital and promote inclusive growth through critical minerals and the African Continental Free Trade Area. Despite these efforts, the document suggests that the Johannesburg Summit is unlikely to fully realize these ambitions due to geopolitical tensions and a lack of consensus among G20 members on climate change and the Sustainable Development Goals.