Putin, Permafrost, and Propaganda

The report analyzes Russia's strategic use of climate-related disinformation to advance geopolitical goals. It details how the Kremlin exploits climate disasters in the West to stoke polarization, suppresses domestic environmental activism to prevent unrest, and manipulates narratives in the Arctic and Africa to secure economic and political influence. The document highlights the intersection of Russian influence with far-right rhetoric and the emerging threat of AI-driven disinformation, while arguing that subnational and international cooperation is essential to counter these efforts as US federal defenses weaken.

• Russia's climate-related information manipulation is driven by three primary strategic objectives: protecting the economic interests of the fossil-fuel-dependent elite, preventing domestic political unrest, and undermining the United States and NATO.
• The Russian state utilizes a comprehensive 'influence ecosystem' consisting of five pillars: official government communications, state-funded global messaging (including Sputnik and RT), proxy sources, social media weaponization (trolls and bots), and cyber-enabled disinformation.
• Domestically, the Kremlin suppresses environmental activism to prevent it from becoming a catalyst for political opposition, designating NGOs like Greenpeace and World Wildlife Federation as 'undesirable' and using censorship to stifle dissent.
• Russia exploits high-profile climate disasters in NATO countries to sow dissatisfaction with government responses and link the lack of relief to support for Ukraine. Examples include the 2024 Hurricane Helene in the US and flooding in Poland and Spain.
• In the Arctic, Russia uses influence efforts to legitimize its military buildup and maritime claims, portraying NATO activities as destabilizing while casting its own presence as defensive.
• Russia attempts to delay the global clean energy transition to protect its federal budget, which relies heavily on oil and gas revenues (representing 32% of government revenues as of 2023).
• In Africa, Russian propaganda frames European environmental regulations as 'green colonialism' and positions Russian gas and nuclear exports as paths to sovereignty and development.
• The Kremlin employs 'issue-stacking' to link climate denial with other polarizing topics such as vaccine skepticism and LGBTQ rights to align itself with the reactionary right in the West.
• The US Department of Justice indicted RT officials in September 2024 for covertly funding Tenet Media, which produced climate disinformation posts that received over 23 million views in one year.
• Emerging threats include the use of AI to generate disinformation and the weakening of US federal defenses, such as the dismantling of the Global Engagement Center and the Foreign Malign Influence Center since January 2025.

APA

Ellison, T. (2025). Putin, Permafrost, and Propaganda. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Putin-Permafrost-and-Propaganda.pdf

Chicago

Ellison, Tom. Putin, Permafrost, and Propaganda. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2025. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Putin-Permafrost-and-Propaganda.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Ellison |first1=Tom |title=Putin, Permafrost, and Propaganda |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=December 2025 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Putin-Permafrost-and-Propaganda.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ellison2025putin, author = {Ellison, Tom}, title = {{Putin, Permafrost, and Propaganda}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2025}, month = dec, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Putin-Permafrost-and-Propaganda.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }