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Dennis Showalter and the History of Armour during Second World War
The author examines the contributions of historian Dennis Showalter to the study of German panzer forces, specifically his analysis of doctrine, generalship, and the Battle of Kursk. The text then applies these themes to the Indian Armoured Corps (IAC), detailing its transition from internal security and frontier policing to high-intensity combat in Burma. It highlights the role of mission-oriented command and combined arms tactics in the IAC's success during Operation Extended Capital and the 'Race to Rangoon'.
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Document type: Research paper
Give Me Liberty, or Give Me Death! State Repression, Ethnic Grievance and Civil War, 1981-2004
The research analyzes the relationship between state repression of 'empowerment rights' (social, political, and economic liberties) and ethnic fractionalization in predicting civil war onset. Using data from 143 states, the study finds that state repression does not have a direct effect on war onset. However, it discovers a significant conditional effect: in ethnically fractionalized societies, higher levels of state repression actually reduce the probability of civil war, whereas in homogeneous societies, repression increases the risk. These findings challenge 'grievance-based' theories of ethnic conflict, suggesting instead that the opportunity to mobilize—which is constrained by repression—is the primary driver of rebellion in diverse societies.
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Document type: Research paper
The US Talks with the Afghan Taliban: Pulling the Rug from under a Government it Created
The document analyzes the US-Taliban peace process leading up to the 2021 takeover of Kabul, arguing that the US prioritized its own military disengagement over the survival of the Afghan government it helped create. By excluding the Afghan government from direct negotiations and making commitments on its behalf, the US undermined the legitimacy and leverage of the republican state, paving the way for the Taliban's return to power.
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Document type: Case study
A Peace Nation Takes Up Arms
The document analyzes Norway's involvement in Afghanistan, noting that while the initial 2001 justification was based on the NATO Article 5 security guarantee, the official rationale shifted over a decade toward preventing terrorism and promoting international solidarity. Norway's approach was characterized by a strict separation of military and civilian efforts, exemplified by the 'Norwegian Model' in the Faryab Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT), where military commanders had no authority over aid allocation. Despite this, the engagement strained military resources and faced domestic skepticism, with some of the public believing participation increased the risk of terror attacks. The paper concludes that alliance dependence remained the primary driver of the engagement, even as the government rhetorically emphasized peacebuilding and state-building.
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Document type: Research paper
Comparing Qatari and Norwegian Models of Small State Conflict Mediation
The report identifies ten common areas for comparing the mediation strategies of Qatar and Norway, highlighting differences in their identities, the role of civil society, and regional engagement, while noting shared dependencies on the United States and the use of financial resources to cultivate soft power.
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Document type: Report
Middle East Report
The document examines the complex geopolitical landscape of the Middle East through a series of expert perspectives. Key themes include the failure of Western 'exceptionalism' in diplomacy, the systemic human rights abuses in countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia, and the critical role of water scarcity as a driver of intra-state conflict. It provides detailed analysis of the 'bottom-up' stabilization efforts in Iraq via local ceasefires, the strategic threat of Iranian nuclear proliferation, and the use of public diplomacy by non-state actors like Hizbollah. Additionally, it addresses the stalled peace process between Israel and Palestine and the specific challenges of the Cyprus division.
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Document type: Report
INDIA IN THE WORLD Emerging Perspectives on Global Challenges
The document details the collaboration between IDSA and PRIO, focusing on India's perspectives on food security, nuclear governance, and climate change. It highlights India's pursuit of nuclear energy capacity, its adherence to the CBDR-RC principle in climate negotiations, and the internal challenges of food insecurity and insurgencies.
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Document type: Report
It Takes Two: A Dyadic Analysis of Civil War Duration and Outcome
The research argues that civil war dynamics are best understood as dyadic interactions between governments and specific rebel groups rather than through aggregate national characteristics. Using new data on non-state actors, the authors find that militarily strong rebels tend to fight shorter wars and are more likely to achieve decisive victories or concessions. Conversely, conflicts are prolonged when rebels are militarily weak but maintain territorial control in the periphery, as they can evade government repression without being strong enough to force a settlement. The study also indicates that the availability of legal political wings for rebels shortens conflict duration, and that the likelihood of government victory decreases significantly as a conflict persists.
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Document type: Research paper
Logistics of Small Wars in British India: 1840s-1913
The document examines the hybrid logistical system developed by the British-Indian Army to conduct pacification campaigns in difficult terrains. It focuses on four key themes: the use of non-combatant manpower (coolies), the construction of strategic roads, the utilization of rivers and boats, and the deployment of various animals for transport. The author argues that the British integrated indigenous resources with imported management techniques to project power, creating a 'geo-bio power' framework that allowed them to maintain operational reach where tribal forces lacked logistical infrastructure.
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Document type: Research paper
Mapping Business-Peace Interactions: Five Assertions for How Businesses Create Peace
The paper maps the disparate research and practice of 'business-peace' interactions into five core assertions: economic engagement creating a peace dividend, local development building peace capacities, importing international norms for accountability, constraining conflict drivers, and direct corporate diplomacy. While proponents argue these activities foster stability and development, critics warn of neo-colonial exploitation, 'peacewashing', and the risk of exacerbating local inequalities. The author concludes that business contributions are often limited by the willingness of local regimes and the priority of profit over courageous ethical choices in fragile contexts.
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Document type: Research paper
Conflict Trends in the Middle East, 1989–2019
The Middle East has hosted the world's deadliest conflicts over the last decade, with Syria being the deadliest since 1989. While state-based conflicts and battle-related deaths declined in 2019, internationalized civil wars reached record levels since 2015. Non-state conflicts peaked in 2014 and have since declined, though they remain higher than pre-2011 levels. One-sided violence fatalities doubled from 2018 to 2019, driven by IS, Syrian insurgents, and Iran. Despite an increase in ceasefires, peace agreements are rare in the region compared to Africa and Asia, with only one full peace agreement recorded between 1989 and 2018.
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Document type: Research paper
Conflict Trends: A Global Overview, 1946–2019
The document provides a comprehensive overview of global conflict trends from 1989 to 2019, noting a record high of 54 state-based conflicts in 2019. It highlights the significant role of the Islamic State (IS) in driving recent conflict increases and the prevalence of internationalized civil conflicts. While battle-related deaths have generally decreased over the last 20 years, specific hotspots in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia remain deadly. The paper also analyzes the decline in peace agreements since 2015 and the persistence of non-state conflicts, particularly violent drug cartel activity in Latin America and communal violence in Africa.
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Document type: Research paper
Conflict Trends in Africa, 1989–2019
The paper analyzes conflict dynamics in Africa from 1989 to 2019, noting a record high of 25 state-based conflicts in 2019, many of which are low-intensity or involve the Islamic State. While Africa faces rising non-state conflicts and one-sided violence, it also leads other regions in the number of definitive ceasefires and peace agreements. The study further details the growth of UN peacekeeping operations in the region from 1994 to 2018, highlighting a significant increase in troop deployment peaking in 2010.
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Document type: Research paper
Conflict Trends in Asia, 1989–2019
The document analyzes conflict dynamics in Asia from 1989 to 2019 using UCDP data. It finds that while state-based conflicts are generally declining and often low-intensity, Afghanistan remains a critical exception and the most violent setting in the region and the world. Asia recorded the highest absolute number of ceasefires globally between 1989 and 2018, but peace agreements have declined since 2006. Non-state conflicts in Asia are declining, contrary to global trends, while one-sided violence is generally decreasing but saw a recent increase in 2019 driven by Afghanistan.
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Document type: Research paper
Pro-gender Norms in Norwegian Peace Engagement: Balancing Experiences, Values and Interests
The research examines the intersection of Norway's national identity as a gender-equal and peace-promoting nation with its diplomatic practices. Through interviews with ten diplomats, the authors analyze how 'state feminism' has transitioned from domestic policy to foreign policy, specifically within the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) agenda. The findings highlight a strategic tension: while Norway promotes gender equality to enhance its international branding and credibility as a neutral facilitator, it avoids the explicit label of 'feminist foreign policy' to prevent being perceived as too value-driven or Western, which could jeopardize its role as a benign peace facilitator. The document notes a shift from early, male-dominated peace efforts to more professionalized, gender-balanced teams in recent processes like those in Colombia and the Philippines.
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Document type: Research paper
Resolving Civil Wars before they Start: The UN Security Council and Conflict Prevention in Self-Determination Disputes
The study analyzes 142 self-determination movements across 77 countries to determine the preventive effects of UNSC actions. It finds that direct diplomatic engagement significantly reduces the probability of armed conflict onset. Additionally, while direct force and sanctions show limited or positive correlations with conflict, indirect authorizations of force and sanctions—those applied in a broader regional or state-wide context—act as powerful deterrents, reducing the likelihood of civil war for related self-determination groups.
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Document type: Research paper
Revolt and Rule: Learning about governance from rebel groups
The document argues that rebel groups provide a unique 'laboratory' for understanding governance because they operate outside the Westphalian state system. It examines how rebels implement rule-making, enforcement, and service provision, and how these activities relate to their legitimacy and capacity. The authors propose a multi-dimensional framework for rebel capacity—military, economic, personnel, administrative, and social—and argue that territorial control is not always a prerequisite for governance. By comparing rebel and state behaviors, the paper suggests that governance is often multi-layered and that the relationship between territorial control and legitimacy is complex and non-linear.
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Document type: Research paper
Security Force Assistance to Fragile States: A Framework of Analysis
The authors examine the rise of Security Force Assistance (SFA)—the training and equipping of foreign armed forces—as a preferred alternative to large-scale combat deployments and expensive security sector reform. They argue that in fragile states, SFA often fails because providers misread local political dynamics, where ruling elites may manipulate security fragmentation for their own survival. The paper critiques the standard principal-agent theory of SFA, suggesting it lacks the nuance to account for the heterogeneity of programs and the lack of cohesiveness among multiple providers and recipients. Through various case studies, the authors highlight unintended consequences, such as the creation of elite units that serve as instruments for regime protection rather than national security.
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Document type: Research paper
Resources, Regimes and Rebellion
The author replicates and extends the civil war model of Collier & Hoeffler (2002), finding that while natural resources correlate with conflict, the drivers differ by region. In the Middle East, the 'greed' explanation—where rebels fight to seize resources—is less plausible than a 'rentier-state' model, where oil-funded authoritarianism, corruption, and slow growth generate grievances. The study also finds that democracy is significantly and negatively related to civil conflict, a finding absent in the original Collier & Hoeffler analysis.
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Document type: Research paper
Faithful Ally
The document analyzes the UK's engagement in Afghanistan, arguing that an ideological commitment to liberal internationalism led to an over-ambitious 'comprehensive approach' that struggled against local realities. It details the transition from soft stabilization in the north to intense combat in Helmand, where strategic errors—such as the 'platoon house strategy' and the removal of a powerful local governor—intensified the insurgency. The paper concludes that the UK responded to these failures through 'mission creep,' escalating troop levels and expanding objectives without achieving decisive results.
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Document type: Research paper