Resources, Regimes and Rebellion

The author replicates and extends the civil war model of Collier & Hoeffler (2002), finding that while natural resources correlate with conflict, the drivers differ by region. In the Middle East, the 'greed' explanation—where rebels fight to seize resources—is less plausible than a 'rentier-state' model, where oil-funded authoritarianism, corruption, and slow growth generate grievances. The study also finds that democracy is significantly and negatively related to civil conflict, a finding absent in the original Collier & Hoeffler analysis.

• The author's replication of the Collier & Hoeffler model indicates that democracy is a significant variable that is negatively correlated with the outbreak of civil war, contradicting the original study's findings.
• When breaking down primary commodity dependence, oil dependency is found to be a significant factor in predicting civil war, whereas mineral dependency is not.
• The 'greed' model, which suggests rebels are motivated by the opportunity to finance insurgency through natural resources, is argued to be flawed when applied to the Middle East.
• In the Middle East, the link between resource abundance and conflict is better explained by the rentier-state concept, where oil leads to authoritarianism, corruption, and slow growth, which in turn foster grievance-based conflict.
• Oil is distinguished from other natural resources due to its physical and geographical qualities, making it less likely to be looted by rebels and more likely to remain under state control or be targeted via coups d'état or secessionist wars.
• The analysis suggests that oil dependency may mask the effect of democracy in the Middle East, potentially because oil revenues allow regimes to repress or buy off political opposition.

APA

Sørli, M. E. (n.d.). Resources, Regimes and Rebellion. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/7f5e09d5-cb1c-4063-afc6-152c5782c8bd/Sorli - Resources Regimes and Rebellion.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Sørli, Mirjam E. Resources, Regimes and Rebellion. Peace Research Institute Oslo, n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/7f5e09d5-cb1c-4063-afc6-152c5782c8bd/Sorli - Resources Regimes and Rebellion.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Sørli |first1=Mirjam E. |title=Resources, Regimes and Rebellion |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/7f5e09d5-cb1c-4063-afc6-152c5782c8bd/Sorli - Resources Regimes and Rebellion.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{srlindresources, author = {Sørli, Mirjam E.}, title = {{Resources, Regimes and Rebellion}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/7f5e09d5-cb1c-4063-afc6-152c5782c8bd/Sorli - Resources Regimes and Rebellion.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }