Conflict Trends in the Middle East, 1989–2019

The Middle East has hosted the world's deadliest conflicts over the last decade, with Syria being the deadliest since 1989. While state-based conflicts and battle-related deaths declined in 2019, internationalized civil wars reached record levels since 2015. Non-state conflicts peaked in 2014 and have since declined, though they remain higher than pre-2011 levels. One-sided violence fatalities doubled from 2018 to 2019, driven by IS, Syrian insurgents, and Iran. Despite an increase in ceasefires, peace agreements are rare in the region compared to Africa and Asia, with only one full peace agreement recorded between 1989 and 2018.

• The Middle East has been the site of the world's deadliest conflicts over the last ten years, with Syria specifically being the deadliest conflict globally since 1989.
• State-based conflicts in the Middle East saw a relative increase over the last six years, though 2019 marked the first decrease in such conflicts since 2007, with 10 conflicts recorded compared to 12 in 2018.
• Battle-related deaths in the region have steadily declined since 2014, largely due to de-escalation in Iraq and Syria, falling from 18,971 in 2018 to 10,625 in 2019.
• Internationalized civil wars, involving foreign governments with troops, have reached their highest level since 2015, with four out of five civil wars in 2019 experiencing external interventions.
• Conflicts fought over government incompatibility increased substantially after 2004, peaking in 2018 and 2019 with six wars, the highest number since 1946.
• Ceasefires in the Middle East peaked in 2016 with 48 recorded, primarily in Syria and Yemen, including a record 25 humanitarian ceasefires in 2015.
• Peace agreements are rare in the Middle East compared to other regions; only one full peace agreement was recorded between 1989 and 2018, which was the 1990 unification of North and South Yemen.
• Non-state conflicts peaked in 2014 with 37 conflicts and have since declined to 8 in 2019, though they remain significantly higher than pre-2011 levels.
• Fatalities from one-sided violence in the Middle East doubled from 54 in 2018 to 108 in 2019, primarily caused by the Government of Iran, IS, and Syrian insurgents.

APA

Rustad, S. A., Palik, J., Methi, F., & Harpviken, K. B. (n.d.). Conflict Trends in the Middle East, 1989–2019. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/b48895e9-5c53-487e-ab23-b2f12c227725/Palik Rustad Harpviken Methi - Conflict Trends in the Middle East 1989-2019 PRIO Paper 2020.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Rustad, Siri Aas, Júlia Palik, Fredrik Methi, and Kristian Berg Harpviken. Conflict Trends in the Middle East, 1989–2019. Peace Research Institute Oslo, n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/b48895e9-5c53-487e-ab23-b2f12c227725/Palik Rustad Harpviken Methi - Conflict Trends in the Middle East 1989-2019 PRIO Paper 2020.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{rustadndconflict, author = {Rustad, Siri Aas and Palik, Júlia and Methi, Fredrik and Harpviken, Kristian Berg}, title = {{Conflict Trends in the Middle East, 1989–2019}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/b48895e9-5c53-487e-ab23-b2f12c227725/Palik Rustad Harpviken Methi - Conflict Trends in the Middle East 1989-2019 PRIO Paper 2020.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }