Conflict Trends in Asia, 1989–2019

The document analyzes conflict dynamics in Asia from 1989 to 2019 using UCDP data. It finds that while state-based conflicts are generally declining and often low-intensity, Afghanistan remains a critical exception and the most violent setting in the region and the world. Asia recorded the highest absolute number of ceasefires globally between 1989 and 2018, but peace agreements have declined since 2006. Non-state conflicts in Asia are declining, contrary to global trends, while one-sided violence is generally decreasing but saw a recent increase in 2019 driven by Afghanistan.

• State-based conflicts in Asia have generally declined since the pre-Cold War period, with the number of such conflicts decreasing from 16 in 2018 to 15 in 2019. In 2019, these 15 conflicts occurred across six different countries and consisted of 12 civil wars, two internationalized civil wars, and one interstate war between India and Pakistan over Kashmir.
• Afghanistan is the primary driver of violence in Asia and globally. In 2019, it was the most violent conflict setting in the world, with battle-related deaths increasing from 25,679 in 2018 to 29,903 in 2019, largely due to the government's fight against the Taliban.
• Asia recorded the highest absolute number of ceasefires of any world region between 1989 and 2018, totaling 679. The majority of these were related to peace processes (396), and the region showed a relatively high share of holiday-related ceasefires (130) compared to other regions.
• The number of peace agreements in Asia increased after 1987, peaking in 1997 and 2006 with seven agreements each, before entering a declining trend. Between 1975 and 2018, Asia had 63 peace agreements, with partial agreements (31) being the most common type.
• Contrary to global trends, Asia has seen a general decline in non-state conflicts. While there was a slight increase from two conflicts in 2018 to three in 2019—including a new communal conflict in Papua New Guinea between the Oi Kuru and Libe Koi groups—battle-related deaths from non-state conflicts reached a record low of 141 in 2019.
• One-sided violence in Asia generally follows a declining trend for both government and non-state perpetrators, though fatalities increased from 2018 to 2019. This recent escalation was driven by the Taliban and the Government of Afghanistan. Historically, the majority of one-sided violence in the region is perpetrated by non-state actors.
• Geographically, conflicts in Asia are often concentrated in hotspots rather than spread across entire countries, with the exceptions of Afghanistan and the Philippines. Examples of hotspots include Kashmir and eastern central parts of India, the Rakhine and Kachin states in Myanmar, and the deep south of Thailand.

APA

Rustad, S. A., Palik, J., & Methi, F. (n.d.). Conflict Trends in Asia, 1989–2019. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/5b35e65f-193a-4e63-bace-2f4be3210f77/Palik Rustad Methi - Conflict Trends in Asia 1989-2019 PRIO Paper 2020.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Rustad, Siri Aas, Júlia Palik, and Fredrik Methi. Conflict Trends in Asia, 1989–2019. Peace Research Institute Oslo, n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/5b35e65f-193a-4e63-bace-2f4be3210f77/Palik Rustad Methi - Conflict Trends in Asia 1989-2019 PRIO Paper 2020.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Rustad |first1=Siri Aas |last2=Palik |first2=Júlia |last3=Methi |first3=Fredrik |title=Conflict Trends in Asia, 1989–2019 |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/5b35e65f-193a-4e63-bace-2f4be3210f77/Palik Rustad Methi - Conflict Trends in Asia 1989-2019 PRIO Paper 2020.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rustadndconflict, author = {Rustad, Siri Aas and Palik, Júlia and Methi, Fredrik}, title = {{Conflict Trends in Asia, 1989–2019}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/5b35e65f-193a-4e63-bace-2f4be3210f77/Palik Rustad Methi - Conflict Trends in Asia 1989-2019 PRIO Paper 2020.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }