Resolving Civil Wars before they Start: The UN Security Council and Conflict Prevention in Self-Determination Disputes

The study analyzes 142 self-determination movements across 77 countries to determine the preventive effects of UNSC actions. It finds that direct diplomatic engagement significantly reduces the probability of armed conflict onset. Additionally, while direct force and sanctions show limited or positive correlations with conflict, indirect authorizations of force and sanctions—those applied in a broader regional or state-wide context—act as powerful deterrents, reducing the likelihood of civil war for related self-determination groups.

• Direct diplomatic engagement by the UNSC is strongly associated with a decrease in the likelihood of armed conflict in self-determination disputes. Specifically, periods immediately following resolutions containing instructions for diplomatic measures are estimated to be about 60 percent less likely to experience the onset of armed conflict.
• Indirect authorizations of new force and sanctions—resolutions that do not explicitly name a specific self-determination movement but address a broader regional or state-wide conflict—have significant deterrent effects. Indirect force authorizations almost entirely eliminate the likelihood of conflict onset, while indirect sanctions reduce it by approximately 40 percent.
• Direct authorizations of new force do not show a statistically significant preventive effect, and direct sanctions are actually positively correlated with an increased likelihood of civil war.
• Passive UNSC actions, including simple condemnations and the reauthorization of existing force mandates, do not have a statistically significant relationship with the onset of armed conflict.
• The preventive effect of diplomacy is not merely a result of managing existing conflicts, as the effect remains robust when the sample is limited to self-determination movements that had never previously participated in a civil war.
• Several state and group-level factors correlate with the likelihood of civil war: increased numbers of movement factions, the presence of ethnic kin groups in neighboring states, and a higher total number of self-determination groups within a state all increase the probability of conflict. Conversely, democracy and higher GDP per capita are associated with a lower likelihood of onset.

APA

Beardsley, K., Cunningham, D. E., & White, P. B. (n.d.). Resolving Civil Wars before they Start: The UN Security Council and Conflict Prevention in Self-Determination Disputes. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/9b582245-5d5e-4085-aff6-21c31ba863b9/Resolving Civil Wars before They Start The UN Security Council and Conflict Prevention in Self-Determination Disputes.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Beardsley, Kyle, David E. Cunningham, and Peter B. White. Resolving Civil Wars before they Start: The UN Security Council and Conflict Prevention in Self-Determination Disputes. Peace Research Institute Oslo, n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/9b582245-5d5e-4085-aff6-21c31ba863b9/Resolving Civil Wars before They Start The UN Security Council and Conflict Prevention in Self-Determination Disputes.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Beardsley |first1=Kyle |last2=Cunningham |first2=David E. |last3=White |first3=Peter B. |title=Resolving Civil Wars before they Start: The UN Security Council and Conflict Prevention in Self-Determination Disputes |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/9b582245-5d5e-4085-aff6-21c31ba863b9/Resolving Civil Wars before They Start The UN Security Council and Conflict Prevention in Self-Determination Disputes.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{beardsleyndresolving, author = {Beardsley, Kyle and Cunningham, David E. and White, Peter B.}, title = {{Resolving Civil Wars before they Start: The UN Security Council and Conflict Prevention in Self-Determination Disputes}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/9b582245-5d5e-4085-aff6-21c31ba863b9/Resolving Civil Wars before They Start The UN Security Council and Conflict Prevention in Self-Determination Disputes.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }