Search Climate Insights Directory

Fossil fuel subsidies, which exceeded USD 1.2 trillion in public financial support in 2024, distort energy markets and lock countries into fossil fuel dependence. These subsidies take the form of consumer price supports, producer incentives, and general services. While subsidies declined to USD 921 billion in 2024 from a 2022 peak of USD 1.76 trillion, geopolitical tensions in 2026 are risking a new increase in support measures to shield consumers from price shocks.

The document outlines the environmental and social risks of fracking, highlighting its high water consumption and methane emissions. It specifically discusses Mexico's shift toward exploiting unconventional gas reserves under President Claudia Sheinbaum to reduce dependence on US gas, while noting the technique's controversy in Argentina and other Latin American nations.

The report analyzes the role of renewable energy in shielding Britain from a fossil fuel crisis in March 2026. It finds that new wind and solar capacity reduced gas-fired power generation by 39% compared to 2021, avoiding approximately £7 million in daily gas purchases during the first four weeks of the crisis.

Drought in Türkiye has led to a permanent decline in hydroelectric output, with the average capacity factor of plants falling from 38% (1996–2005) to 26% over the last decade. This decline is compensated by natural gas power plants, increasing the country's reliance on energy imports. The long-term impact of drought on energy imports is estimated at an average of $1.8 billion per year, with the three largest dams alone (Atatürk, Karakaya, and Keban) contributing to $400 million in additional annual gas imports.

The report finds that drought has caused a permanent decline in Turkey's hydroelectric capacity factors, leading to a reliance on natural gas to compensate for the loss, which increases energy imports by an estimated 1.8 billion dollars annually.

In 2025, wind and solar energy reached a record 22% of Türkiye's electricity generation, though coal remained the largest source at 34%. While the country has a massive 33 GW battery project pipeline that exceeds any single EU nation, it still trails European averages for renewable energy share. Persistent drought has significantly reduced hydroelectric output, increasing reliance on natural gas imports by an estimated $1.8 billion annually. A new purchase guarantee for domestic coal plants starting in 2026 may further increase coal generation, potentially contradicting the country's 2035 target of 120 GW of wind and solar capacity.

The document analyzes the tension between Nigeria's 'Renewed Hope' National Development Plan (NDP) 2026-2030 and its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0). It highlights a historical coupling of economic growth and carbon emissions, where a 1% GDP increase has led to a 3.11% rise in emissions. While initiatives like Mission 300 and the DARES project promote renewable energy for electricity access, heavy industries like steel and cement remain reliant on fossil fuels, risking 'carbon lock-in'. The paper identifies a significant annual climate finance gap of USD27.2 billion and discusses the role of natural gas as a transition fuel under the 'Decade of Gas' initiative, despite concerns regarding alignment with 1.5°C goals.

The report forecasts that Africa's energy demand will rise significantly due to population growth and economic expansion, with the 'Combined scenario' projecting demand 26% above the 'Current Path' by 2050. While production is expected to increase—particularly through renewables—demand will still outpace supply, increasing reliance on energy imports. Despite a rapid transition away from fossil fuels, Africa's share of global CO2-equivalent emissions from fossil fuels is projected to rise to 10.4% by 2050 in the Combined scenario.

The briefing compares three pathways for a just transition from fossil fuels. It notes that while the UNFCCC provides a universal framework for emissions, it lacks explicit obligations for fossil fuel production. Brazil's COP30 'Roadmap' serves as a non-binding political dialogue to identify transition barriers. The proposed Fossil Fuel Treaty aims to fill governance gaps through binding commitments to end new project expansion, implement science-based phase-outs, and provide financial support for affected communities.

The briefing argues that the ADB's financial intermediary (FI) lending, specifically its $95 million equity investment in Clifford Capital, creates a transparency loophole that allows continued support for fossil gas projects. It highlights that while the ADB claims to 'ring-fence' its funds, Clifford Capital continues to finance oil and gas projects globally and in Asia. The document provides case studies of the Tangguh LNG project in Indonesia and the Bhola-2 gas power plant in Bangladesh to illustrate the environmental and social harms resulting from such investments, including mangrove destruction and forced land acquisition. It concludes that the ADB's reliance on outdated 2009 policies for these investments avoids the stricter requirements of the 2025 Environmental and Social Framework.

The report examines the Asian Development Bank's (ADB) 95 million USD equity investment in Clifford Capital, a Singapore-based financial intermediary. It argues that ADB's use of financial intermediaries (FIs) creates a transparency gap that allows continued support for fossil gas projects, contradicting the bank's stated goals of Paris Agreement alignment. The document highlights specific projects in Indonesia and Bangladesh as examples of environmental and social harm resulting from such investments and calls for a phased exit from fossil gas funding.

The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) warns that Louisiana's current regulatory trajectory could lead to up to $26 billion in electricity system costs and $3 billion in public health damages between 2026 and 2041 due to data center growth. The report highlights a systemic overreliance on fossil gas, which is projected to peak in 2038, and criticizes the Louisiana Public Service Commission (LPSC) for a lack of transparency and inadequate ratepayer protections, specifically citing the 'Lightning Amendment' and the Entergy/Meta project as examples of risky policy. UCS recommends reforming the Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) process, implementing standardized tariffs for data centers, and expanding wind, solar, and grid connectivity to reduce costs and emissions.

The document analyzes the trajectory of Africa's fossil fuel emissions, noting that while the continent currently contributes less than 5% of global emissions, this share is projected to rise to 12.5% by 2063 under the Current Path and 15% under the Combined scenario. It identifies a small number of countries—most notably Nigeria, Egypt, and South Africa—as the primary drivers of the continent's carbon footprint, with Nigeria projected to become the continent's largest emitter by 2050.

The report analyzes global carbon emissions, noting that 2023 saw record levels of 36.1 billion tons of CO2 equivalent from fossil fuels. It highlights the dominance of a few producers and the significant impact of coal and methane. While China and the EU are pursuing decarbonization, the US experience fluctuates with political administrations. The report forecasts a peak in emissions by 2037/8, but warns that atmospheric CO2 concentrations could reach 551 ppm by 2063, potentially leading to a 3°C temperature rise. Africa is identified as particularly vulnerable, facing increasing emissions from population growth and significant forest loss, with 100 million hectares cleared over three decades.

The report examines the strategic partnership between Nigeria and China within the context of Nigeria's energy transition. It highlights a shift in Chinese engagement from 'debt-heavy, state-directed mega-projects' to 'smaller, more commercially oriented and locally embedded projects' under a 'BRI 2.0' approach. While Nigeria faces severe energy gaps—with peak generation at 5.7 GW against a 20 GW demand—it aims for universal electricity access by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2060. The report details specific collaborations in solar assembly, battery manufacturing, and green hydrogen, while advising Nigeria to 'stack' diverse capital sources from China, the EU, and the US to avoid geopolitical zero-sum traps. It concludes that Nigeria must strengthen institutional coordination to address asymmetries in bargaining power and ensure technology transfer.

A conflict in the Middle East involving Israel, the US, and Iran has caused global fossil fuel supply disruptions, leading to a nearly 50% increase in European gas prices in early March 2026. The briefing highlights that the EU's fossil import bill rose by an estimated €2.5 billion in the first ten days of the crisis. It argues that countries with high gas reliance for electricity, such as Italy, are most exposed to price spikes, while those that have decoupled gas from electricity prices, like Spain, are more resilient. The author contends that electricity market reforms or removing carbon costs (EU-ETS) are less effective than investing in renewables and clean flexibility to ensure long-term energy security.

A conflict in the Middle East in March 2026 caused European gas prices to spike by nearly 50%, increasing the EU's fossil import bill by €2.5 billion in ten days. The report highlights that countries with lower gas reliance, such as Spain, are more insulated from electricity price hikes than gas-heavy markets like Italy. It argues against suspending carbon costs under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, noting that gas volatility has a far greater impact on bills than carbon pricing.

The Clean Air Task Force recommends a framework for the EU Methane Regulation based on three pillars: integrity, attribution, and reporting claims. It distinguishes between 'bundled attributes' (physically linked to fuel volumes) and 'unbundled attributes' (transferable independently), arguing that unbundled certificates must be restricted to the same basin of production to incentivize actual emissions reductions. To prevent double-counting, the paper calls for mass balance accounting, digital registries with unique IDs, and strict temporal alignment, requiring certificates to be issued within 12 months of report submission and linked to production from the reporting year or the one immediately preceding it.

The report challenges the narrative of fossil gas as a necessary transition fuel for grid flexibility. It distinguishes between Open Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGT), which are agile but inefficient, and Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGT), which are efficient for baseload power but suffer from premature aging, higher emissions, and reduced profitability when used for peak demand. The author highlights that CCGT viability often relies on costly government capacity mechanisms funded by consumers. Furthermore, a global shortage of gas turbines is delaying projects and increasing costs. The document advocates for replacing gas with sustainable flexibility solutions, including battery storage, pumped hydro, demand-side response, and improved interconnections, urging financial institutions to cease funding new gas power projects.

The report challenges the narrative of fossil gas as a necessary 'bridge fuel' for grid flexibility. It argues that Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGTs), which dominate new developments, are designed for baseload rather than peakload, and using them for flexibility reduces their lifespan and increases emissions. The document highlights that gas plant profitability is often maintained through costly consumer-funded capacity mechanisms and notes a critical global shortage of gas turbines. It concludes that sustainable alternatives—such as battery storage, pumped hydro, demand-side response, and grid enhancements—provide more efficient and cheaper flexibility, urging financial institutions to cease support for new gas projects.