Summary
Drought in Türkiye has led to a permanent decline in hydroelectric output, with the average capacity factor of plants falling from 38% (1996–2005) to 26% over the last decade. This decline is compensated by natural gas power plants, increasing the country's reliance on energy imports. The long-term impact of drought on energy imports is estimated at an average of $1.8 billion per year, with the three largest dams alone (Atatürk, Karakaya, and Keban) contributing to $400 million in additional annual gas imports.
Key insights
- Drought has caused a permanent and significant reduction in hydroelectric output in Türkiye, evidenced by the average capacity factor of plants dropping from 38% during the 1996–2005 period to 26% over the most recent decade. This trend is specifically visible in the Atatürk, Karakaya, and Keban dams.
- Short-term annual fluctuations in hydroelectric generation due to drought can exceed 20 TWh, which represents more than 5% of Türkiye's electricity consumption, posing a risk to energy supply security.
- Because hydropower and natural gas plants substitute for each other, drought-driven declines in hydro generation increase natural gas consumption and imports. The long-term impact of drought on energy imports is estimated at an average of $1.8 billion per year, while the decline at the three largest plants alone results in $400 million in additional annual gas imports.
Cite the original document
- APA
- Ember (2026). Hydropower. https://ember-energy.org/chapter/hydropower/
- Chicago
- Ember. Hydropower. 2026. https://ember-energy.org/chapter/hydropower/.
- Wikipedia
- {{cite report |author=Ember |title=Hydropower |date=8 April 2026 |url=https://ember-energy.org/chapter/hydropower/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}
- BibTeX
- @techreport{ember2026hydropower, author = {{Ember}}, title = {{Hydropower}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2026}, month = apr, url = {https://ember-energy.org/chapter/hydropower/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }
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