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Climate Watch NDC Tracker: Estimating global and national GHG emissions based on emissions reduction targets in countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions
The document outlines the technical approach for estimating economy-wide GHG emissions for countries and the global aggregate, assuming full achievement of NDC targets. It explains the use of supplemental data for sectors or gases not covered by NDCs and the inclusion of emissions like international bunkers to determine global trajectories. These estimates are used by the Climate Watch NDC Tracker to track progress and identify gaps in global emissions pathways.
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Document type: Briefing
Completing the Trip: Establishing a Global Quantified Climate Goal for the Transport Sector
The document argues for a collective global commitment to decarbonize transport through a system approach. It proposes a specific 2035 target consisting of a 35 percent shift to green fuels and a 25 percent reduction in transport energy consumption relative to 2022 levels. This goal is intended to complement the COP28 global stocktake, which called for a transition away from fossil fuels but lacked a quantified target for the transport sector.
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Document type: Briefing
NDC Mitigation Elements
The document outlines the Paris Rulebook's efforts to address transparency gaps in initial NDCs by establishing a detailed list of information required for clarity, transparency, and understanding (CTU). It highlights the adoption of accounting guidance at COP24 to ensure consistent tracking of anthropogenic emissions and removals, which is essential for assessing progress and managing Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes (ITMOs).
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Document type: Guide
Making Finance Consistent with Climate Goals
The document argues that aligning all public and private finance is a necessary condition for meeting the temperature and adaptation goals of the Paris Agreement. It introduces a framework for governments and non-state actors to drive action, track progress, and increase ambition regarding Article 2.1c. To support this, the paper identifies four primary toolsets for governments: financial policies and regulations, fiscal policy levers, public finance, and information instruments. The author emphasizes urgency, noting that the world must reach net-zero emissions within 25 years to limit warming to 1.5°C, and suggests integrating Article 2.1c into UNFCCC processes like the Global Stocktake and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
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Document type: Research paper
Tracking Progress of the 2020 Climate Turning Point
The document evaluates the world's progress against six sectoral milestones designed to align global action with the 1.5°C goal. It concludes that while some progress has been made, particularly in renewable energy, overall action is insufficient and uneven. The report emphasizes the need for updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement and calls for improved data transparency and monitoring systems to accurately track progress and ensure accountability.
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Document type: Executive summary
Aggregating the Impacts of Non-State and Subnational Climate Actions: An Exploration of Methods
The document provides guidance on the methodological assumptions required to aggregate the climate mitigation impacts of cities, businesses, and states. It emphasizes that variations in assumptions—such as the scope of included actions and the degree of conservativeness—significantly influence the credibility and comparability of assessment results. The paper aims to enhance transparency in reporting and support users of the ICAT Non-State and Subnational Action (NSA) Guide and the Climate Action Aggregation Tool (CAAT) in making informed design choices for their assessments.
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Document type: Research paper
Integration of an Energy Modeling Tool in a State’s Power Sector Planning Process—A Tamil Nadu Case Study
The document examines the application of the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) in Tamil Nadu to help state planners design low-carbon energy pathways. It highlights Tamil Nadu's significant renewable energy potential and current capacity, while warning that continuing current trends without intervention will lead to a sharp increase in emissions due to thermal energy generation. The study argues for an integrated planning approach that includes phasing down inefficient thermal plants, managing capacity additions to avoid surpluses, and implementing demand-side energy-efficiency measures.
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Document type: Case study
Moving the Green Belt and Road Initiative: From Words to Actions
The analysis finds that despite high-level green objectives, the vast majority of Chinese BRI investments in energy and transportation from 2014 to 2017 were tied to fossil fuels and traditional infrastructure. While private Chinese enterprises showed a higher preference for renewables, state-owned enterprises and major banks remained focused on carbon-intensive sectors. The report argues that aligning BRI special funds with NDCs could catalyze significant low-carbon development, provided that BRI countries improve the quantitative granularity of their NDCs to better signal investment needs to market actors.
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Document type: Executive summary
Paris Rulebook NDC Mitigation: Deeper Dive
The document details the requirements for Parties to the Paris Agreement regarding the communication and accounting of their NDCs. It outlines the seven elements of CTU guidance adopted in 2018, the mandatory accounting standards based on IPCC methodologies, and the integration of these elements into the broader Paris Agreement cycle, including the Enhanced Transparency Framework and the Global Stocktake.
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Document type: Guide
Choosing the Right Path
WRI analysis suggests Mexico can achieve its conditional nationally determined contribution (NDC) at an average cost of US$12/ton by implementing 21 policy levers across the electricity, transport, and industry sectors. Such actions could save over 25,000 lives and $5 billion in health costs over 12 years. However, the report argues that meeting current NDC commitments is insufficient to reach Mexico's long-term strategy emissions abatement goal, necessitating higher ambition.
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Document type: Report
Applying Climate Services to Transformative Adaptation in Agriculture
The paper argues that while current climate services effectively support daily and seasonal farming decisions, they are underutilized for transformative adaptation—long-term, systemic changes to agricultural production. A review of 253 climate-related policy documents (NDCs, NAPs, and KJWA submissions) revealed that only 2.7% describe the use of climate services for transformative planning. To address this, the author suggests that CS must shift focus toward decadal and long-term projections (up to 2050), integrate non-agricultural data (such as economic and social factors), and be tailored to the needs of policymakers and funders to identify viability thresholds for existing systems. The paper emphasizes that high-quality, tailored CS are essential to prevent developing-country governments from falling behind and to mitigate widening climate-induced inequalities.
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Document type: Research paper
A Practical Framework for Aligning NDC Enhancement and COVID-19 Recovery: Detailed Transport Sector Approaches
The document argues that integrating low-carbon transport into economic recovery plans can drive inclusive growth, job creation, and health improvements while helping countries meet their NDC targets. It advocates for a comprehensive 'Avoid-Shift-Improve' strategy to reduce transport emissions.
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Document type: Briefing
Predicting Future Forest Loss in the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s CARPE Landscapes
The study identifies biophysical conditions, accessibility, and land management as the primary drivers of forest loss in the Democratic Republic of the Congo's CARPE landscapes. Under a business-as-usual scenario, it predicts a loss of approximately 332,200 hectares of forest and 205 million metric tons of CO2 emissions between 2015 and 2025, with the majority of loss occurring in the Ituri-Epulu-Aru and Lac Télé-Lac Tumba landscapes.
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Document type: Research paper
A Tool for Designing Policies to Achieve India’s Climate Targets
The India Energy Policy Simulator (EPS-India), developed by Energy Innovation LLC and the World Resources Institute, is a System Dynamics computer model used to provide quantitative analysis of policy packages. It aims to support India in achieving its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to reduce emissions intensity per unit of GDP by 33 to 35 percent below 2005 levels by 2030.
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Document type: Briefing
Financing Climate Action and the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Analysis of 17 Developing Countries
The analysis finds that the COVID-19 pandemic has decreased international climate finance and led developing countries to reallocate or reduce domestic climate flows, resulting in delayed climate projects. The document highlights a persistent gap between available finance and the resources required to meet Paris Agreement goals and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), exacerbated by the pandemic and natural disasters. It recommends that developing countries implement context-specific climate-finance tracking systems and that international financial institutions increase concessional funding.
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Document type: Research paper
Achieving Mexico’s Climate Goals: An Eight Point Action Plan
The document proposes an eight point action plan to help Mexico meet its INDC targets while improving economic competitiveness, energy security, and public health. It asserts that Mexico can achieve its unconditional greenhouse gas emission reduction target using 19 policies, resulting in cumulative net expenditure savings of over 500 billion pesos (approximately 2 percent of 2015 GDP) by 2030. Furthermore, the paper states that by enhancing existing policies and adding two more, Mexico can reach its conditional emission reduction target while maintaining cost savings.
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Document type: Research paper
Staying on Track from Paris
The document identifies three primary challenges to achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement: aligning financial flows with zero-carbon and resilient development, increasing the ambition of country contributions, and coordinating global cooperation on the Agreement's operational tools. To address these, the paper offers specific recommendations for the Agreement's ten key elements, outlines the tasks required to set rules and procedures, and addresses decisions to enhance ambition before 2020.
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Document type: Research paper
Bottom-up Climate Finance Requirements Tracker: Data and Methodology
The document outlines the methodology for the Climate Finance Requirements Tracker, a tool that systematically tracks quantitative climate finance data from all rounds of nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Since 2021, the World Resources Institute has used this process to distinguish between international and domestic funding requirements for mitigation and adaptation, while also compiling data on the economic impacts of climate-related loss and damage.
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Document type: Guide
Estimating the Impact of Corporate Science-based Emissions Targets on India’s Nationally Determined Contribution Goals
The analysis of 22 Indian companies with science-based targets (SBTs) indicates that full implementation could reduce India's total 2030 GHG emissions by 0.51% to 0.62% and industry sector emissions by 1.89% to 2.4%. Between 2021 and 2030, achieving these SBTs would result in cumulative reductions of 165.9 million MtCO2e in Scope 1 and 15.8 million MtCO2e in Scope 2, slowing the average annual emissions growth rate from a business-as-usual 3.89% to 3.07%. The paper also finds that companies with prior sustainability goals, such as energy efficiency or renewable energy targets, are more likely to adopt absolute-emissions-based SBTs.
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Document type: Research paper
Determining Impacts of NDC Enhancement on Country-Level Emissions
The document outlines a technical approach to determine the extent of NDC enhancement by comparing estimated target-year greenhouse gas emissions under a Party's previous NDC against those under its subsequent NDC. The method covers both NDCs with explicit GHG reduction targets and those based on non-GHG targets and policies.
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Document type: Briefing