Predicting Future Forest Loss in the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s CARPE Landscapes

This research paper uses spatial modeling to identify drivers of forest loss and predict future deforestation within six CARPE landscapes in the Democratic Republic of the Congo between 2015 and 2025.

• The study identified three primary categories of influence on past forest loss: biophysical conditions (specifically rainfall and topography), accessibility (including distance to roads, rivers, settlements, conflict, and shifting cultivation areas), and land management status (specifically logging concessions and protected areas).
• Under a business-as-usual scenario, it is projected that approximately 332,200 hectares of forest in the CARPE landscapes will be lost between 2015 and 2025, resulting in 205 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, which averages to 20.5 million metric tons of CO2 annually.
• The majority of projected forest loss (59 percent) is expected to occur in two specific areas: the Ituri-Epulu-Aru Landscape (34 percent), situated in eastern Orientale Province, and the Lac Télé-Lac Tumba Landscape (25 percent), located in Bandundu and Équateur Provinces.
• The study indicates that fully protecting CARPE's forest landscapes to prevent all future deforestation could provide climate benefits up to 68 times higher than the carbon sequestration goal of 3 million metric tons of CO2 by 2025 set in the DRC's nationally determined contribution (NDC) under the 2015 Paris Agreement. Additionally, a 10 percent reduction in the rate of future forest loss would reduce emissions by 20 million metric tons of CO2 by 2025.

APA

World Resources Institute (n.d.). Predicting Future Forest Loss in the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s CARPE Landscapes. https://www.wri.org/predicting-future-forest-loss-democratic-republic-congos-carpe-landscapes

Chicago

World Resources Institute. Predicting Future Forest Loss in the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s CARPE Landscapes. n.d. https://www.wri.org/predicting-future-forest-loss-democratic-republic-congos-carpe-landscapes.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Resources Institute |title=Predicting Future Forest Loss in the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s CARPE Landscapes |url=https://www.wri.org/predicting-future-forest-loss-democratic-republic-congos-carpe-landscapes |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldresourcesinstitutendpredicting, author = {{World Resources Institute}}, title = {{Predicting Future Forest Loss in the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s CARPE Landscapes}}, institution = {World Resources Institute}, url = {https://www.wri.org/predicting-future-forest-loss-democratic-republic-congos-carpe-landscapes}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }