Predicting Future Forest Loss in the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s CARPE Landscapes

The study identifies biophysical conditions, accessibility, and land management as the primary drivers of forest loss in the Democratic Republic of the Congo's CARPE landscapes. Under a business-as-usual scenario, it predicts a loss of approximately 332,200 hectares of forest and 205 million metric tons of CO2 emissions between 2015 and 2025, with the majority of loss occurring in the Ituri-Epulu-Aru and Lac Télé-Lac Tumba landscapes.

• The primary drivers of past forest loss across the six CARPE landscapes are biophysical conditions (rainfall and topography), accessibility (distance to rivers, roads, settlements, conflict, and shifting cultivation areas), and land management status (logging concessions and protected areas).
• Under a business-as-usual scenario from 2015 to 2025, approximately 332,200 hectares of forest are projected to be lost, resulting in 205 million metric tons of CO2 emissions, which averages to 20.5 million metric tons per year.
• The majority of projected forest loss (59 percent) is concentrated in two areas: the Ituri-Epulu-Aru Landscape (34 percent) in eastern Orientale Province, and the Lac Télé-Lac Tumba Landscape (25 percent) in Bandundu and Équateur Provinces.
• Preventing all future deforestation in CARPE's forest landscapes could provide climate benefits up to 68 times higher than the carbon sequestration goal of 3 million metric tons of CO2 by 2025 set in the DRC's nationally determined contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement.
• Reducing the projected rate of future forest loss by 10 percent would result in emission reductions of 20 million metric tons of CO2 by 2025.

APA

World Resources Institute (n.d.). Predicting Future Forest Loss in the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s CARPE Landscapes. https://www.wri.org/predicting-future-forest-loss-democratic-republic-congos-carpe-landscapes

Chicago

World Resources Institute. Predicting Future Forest Loss in the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s CARPE Landscapes. n.d. https://www.wri.org/predicting-future-forest-loss-democratic-republic-congos-carpe-landscapes.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Resources Institute |title=Predicting Future Forest Loss in the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s CARPE Landscapes |url=https://www.wri.org/predicting-future-forest-loss-democratic-republic-congos-carpe-landscapes |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldresourcesinstitutendpredicting, author = {{World Resources Institute}}, title = {{Predicting Future Forest Loss in the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s CARPE Landscapes}}, institution = {World Resources Institute}, url = {https://www.wri.org/predicting-future-forest-loss-democratic-republic-congos-carpe-landscapes}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }