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Flood impacts in Assam driven by high exposure and structural vulnerability amid uncertain rainfall trends
The 2026 floods in Upper Assam, which affected over 500,000 people and caused at least 99 deaths, were driven by high exposure and structural vulnerability rather than climate-driven rainfall increases. Analysis shows the rainfall events had return periods of less than two years and that human-induced warming of 1.4°C did not materially alter their likelihood or intensity. The study highlights that unplanned urbanization, deforestation, and colonial land policies have increased vulnerability, while reliance on rigid embankments has proven insufficient for adaptation.
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Document type: Research paper
Nature-Based Solutions for Adaptation in Uganda
The inventory identifies a diverse range of NbS in Uganda, primarily focused on wetland and catchment restoration, forest management, and agroforestry. These interventions address coupled challenges of food insecurity, water stress, and disaster risk. Key projects include the GCF FP034 wetland restoration and the CAPA Initiative in the Greater Virunga Landscape. While social inclusion is present, it is unevenly documented across the portfolio.
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Document type: Report
Assessing Climate Risks to India’s Power Sector: A District-Level and Asset-Level Methodology for Climate-Resilient Power Systems
The report details a framework for assessing climate risks to India's power sector, distinguishing between chronic stresses (e.g., temperature, drought) and acute extremes (e.g., floods, cyclones). It introduces the Asset-Specific Climate Risk Factor (ACRF) for spatial screening and Expected Annual Impact (EAI)—measured as Expected Annual Loss (EAL) for generation and Energy Not Served (ENS) for networks—to quantify operational disruptions in MWh. The methodology includes a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) framework to evaluate the economic viability of resilience measures by comparing investment costs against avoided energy losses and repair expenditures.
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Document type: Report
Unplanned urbanisation fuels landslide disasters amid emerging rainfall trends
In February 2026, intense rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil, caused over 70 deaths and displaced nearly 10,000 people, with Juiz de Fora being the most affected city. While climate models project a 7% increase in February rainfall with future warming, the immediate severity of the disaster was driven by high social vulnerability and unplanned urban expansion on steep slopes. Risk assessments had previously identified 130,000 residents in high-risk zones in Juiz de Fora. The study found that while early warnings were issued, topographical constraints and a lack of evacuation options hindered their effectiveness.
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Document type: Research paper
CEO Note: Indonesia’s big step for Nature
President Prabowo of Indonesia has revoked the permits of 28 companies linked to deforestation, including North Sumatra Hydro Energy and Agincourt gold mine, following devastating floods in Sumatra. The government is suing six companies for $284 million in damages. Additionally, nearly 82,000 hectares in Tesso Nillo National Park have been returned to the Ministry of Forestry for restoration. Mighty Earth is leveraging these actions to advocate for the reconsideration of the 'Food and Energy Estates' project, which has already destroyed over 75,000 acres.
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Document type: Statement
MASYARAKAT SIPIL MELAYANGKAN SOMASI KEPADA PRESIDEN PRABOWO KARENA TAK KUNJUNG MENETAPKAN STATUS DARURAT BENCANA NASIONAL
Civil society organizations have issued a legal notice (somasi) to President Prabowo, urging the immediate declaration of a national disaster status following devastating floods and landslides in Aceh, North Sumatra, and West Sumatra. As of December 8, 2025, the BNPB reported 974 deaths and 298 missing persons, with tens of thousands displaced. The coalition argues that the disasters were driven by excessive and illegal private sector exploitation, categorizing these actions as 'Ecocide Crimes'. They demand central government intervention for reconstruction and a comprehensive investigation into the structural causes and corporate beneficiaries behind the environmental destruction.
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Document type: Statement
Increasing heavy rainfall and extreme flood heights in a warming climate threaten densely populated regions across Sri Lanka and the Malacca Strait
A World Weather Attribution study examines the role of climate change and natural variability in the devastating floods of November 2025 across Sri Lanka and the Malacca Strait. While observational data indicate a significant increase in the intensity of extreme 5-day rainfall events—up to 160% in Sri Lanka and 50% in the Malacca Strait due to a 1.3°C rise in global temperatures—climate models failed to consistently capture these trends, preventing a definitive quantitative attribution. The study also notes that La Niña and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole contributed between 5% and 13% to the rainfall in the Malacca Strait, while rapid urbanization and infrastructure failures exacerbated the humanitarian impact.
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Document type: Research paper
Heavy rainfall leading to widespread flooding in eastern Mexico disproportionately impacts highly exposed indigenous and socially vulnerable communities
An event attribution study on the October 2025 floods in eastern Mexico found that the onset of La Niña heightened the likelihood and intensity of heavy rainfall. While climate models and observational datasets showed conflicting trends regarding the long-term impact of climate change on regional rainfall, the study emphasizes that vulnerability was amplified by rapid urbanization, informal settlements, and chronic underinvestment in indigenous and rural communities.
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Document type: Research paper
Growing exposure and uncertain rainfall trends highlight the critical need for climate resilience in Colombia and Venezuela
The study analyzed rainfall events in Colombia and Venezuela, finding that the June 2025 floods were not meteorologically extreme, with return periods of 10 and 3 years respectively. While some data suggests a slight decrease in rainfall likelihood and intensity in a cooler climate, high uncertainty remains due to model disagreement and a lack of high-quality in-situ weather data in northern South America. The report emphasizes that vulnerability is exacerbated by informal urbanization, deforestation, and socio-economic instability, necessitating increased investment in weather monitoring and climate resilience to manage both droughts and intense downpours.
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Document type: Research paper
Developing and Piloting a Model for Estimating the Direct and Indirect Benefits of Nature-Based Solutions for Road Resilience in Indonesia
The document introduces a mathematical model for quantifying the physical and economic impacts of road disruptions, such as flooding and landslides, and assessing the value of nature-based solutions in mitigating these risks. The model incorporates climate forecasts and spatially explicit assessments of ecosystem services to provide a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis of resilience investments. It has been piloted in two Indonesian locations and used to train technical staff at the Ministry of National Development Planning (BAPPENAS).
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Document type: Report
Developing and Piloting a Model for Estimating the Direct and Indirect Benefits of Nature-Based Solutions for Road Resilience in Indonesia
The report introduces an Excel-based model designed to quantify the financial and economic viability of nature-based solutions (NBI), such as reforestation and mangrove restoration, to enhance road resilience against climate-induced hazards like floods and landslides in Indonesia. Moving beyond traditional CBAs, the model incorporates 'non-road benefits'—including socio-economic externalities like mental health, market access for crops and livestock, and air pollution—to provide a holistic view of investment value. The model was piloted in two distinct locations: Pekanbaru (an urban-rural connection) and West Kalimantan (a rural area). Results demonstrate that while conventional CBAs focusing only on road-related costs often show that costs outweigh benefits, the inclusion of non-road benefits makes these investments economically viable in all tested scenarios. For instance, in the Pekanbaru base case, the benefit-to-cost ratio (BCR) rose to 11.45 when non-road benefits were included.
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Document type: Report
Climate Change in the Indian Mind
The report reveals that while 50% of Indians have limited or no knowledge of global warming, 84% believe it is happening after receiving a definition, and 88% are worried about it. There is strong public support for transitioning from coal to renewable energy, with 82% favoring a ban on new coal plants and 86% supporting the national goal of net-zero carbon pollution by 2070. However, significant vulnerabilities persist, as 66% of respondents experience daily electricity disruptions and 43% lacked sufficient clean drinking water at least once in the past year.
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Document type: Report
Analysis: Climate Change-Driven Ocean Warming Intensifies Record November Typhoon Activity in the Western Pacific
In November 2024, the Western Pacific saw a record four simultaneous named tropical systems—Typhoon Yinxing, Typhoon Toraji, Super Typhoon Usagi, and Super Typhoon Man-Yi—all of which experienced rapid intensification due to warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures. Analysis using the Climate Shift Index: Ocean indicates these temperatures were made up to 40 times more likely by human-caused climate change. The Philippines was severely affected by 16 tropical cyclones or their remnants this season, resulting in at least 160 deaths and the displacement of over 9 million people due to flooding, landslides, and infrastructure damage.
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Document type: Briefing
Rapid urbanisation and climate change: key drivers of dramatic flood impacts in Nepal
The study finds that human-induced climate change has increased the intensity of heavy 3-day rainfall events in Nepal by approximately 10% and their likelihood by about 70% compared to a 1.3°C cooler climate. These climate drivers combined with rapid urbanisation in the Kathmandu Valley—which saw a 386% increase in built-up areas between 1990 and 2020—and a 28% reduction in forest cover from 1989 to 2019, significantly increased flood exposure and disrupted natural drainage. The analysis notes that the 2015 Gorhka earthquake and the COVID-19 pandemic acted as compounding factors that increased vulnerability. While the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology provided forecasts, the Kathmandu Valley has historically not been the focus of flood risk management, which typically prioritises the Terai region.
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Document type: Research paper
Climate change key driver of catastrophic impacts of Hurricane Helene that devastated both coastal and inland communities
The analysis finds that climate change made rainfall approximately 10% heavier in both the coastal and inland regions affected by Hurricane Helene and increased the likelihood of such rainfall totals by 40% and 70%, respectively. The study also indicates that climate change increased the number of storms with similar wind speeds by about 150% and made the record-hot sea surface temperatures over the storm's track 200-500 times more likely. While the storm was well-forecast, high death tolls occurred inland due to mountainous terrain, poor infrastructure, and a lack of experience with hurricanes.
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Document type: Research paper
Potentially deadly errors in hurricane track prediction
The document analyzes the failure of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the Mexican Meteorological Service to accurately predict the path and intensity of Hurricane John in 2006, which led to five deaths and heavy flooding in Baja California. Research by the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM) indicates that the predictive errors were caused by a critical lack of upper air soundings and divergences between numerical models. The text advocates for adhering to World Meteorological Organization (WMO) standards of at least four air soundings per day to improve forecast reliability.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Rwanda’s Climate Adaptation Monitoring, Evaluation, and Learning System in the Human Settlements and Transport Sectors
The report evaluates three primary climate adaptation indicators in Rwanda: the proportion of rural populations in clustered settlements, access to water and sanitation services, and the reduction of road vulnerability to floods and landslides. It finds that while planned rural settlements have increased to 65.4% and water access has improved, significant gaps remain in sanitation coverage and road resilience. The document highlights the effectiveness of engineering solutions like gabions and terracing for road stability and the social benefits of Integrated Development Programme (IDP) model villages, while recommending increased investment in climate-resilient infrastructure and better inter-sectoral coordination.
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Document type: Report
Una idea para tus historias: Los incendios forestales
The guide explains how climate change intensifies wildfires by increasing evaporation and drying out vegetation, creating a feedback loop where fires destroy carbon sinks and emit more carbon. It highlights specific regional impacts in the United States and Canada and provides journalistic advice on covering the long-term effects of fires, such as landslides and public health crises.
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Document type: Guide
Climate change increased Typhoon Gaemi's wind speeds and rainfall
The study finds that climate change increased rainfall intensity in Taiwan and Hunan province and contributed to a 7% increase in maximum wind speeds for similar storms in the Western North Pacific basin. While sea surface temperatures as hot as those observed during Typhoon Gaemi were "almost impossible without climate change", the analysis did not identify a significant trend for rainfall in the northern Philippines. The report highlights that existing urban plans and flood infrastructure are unable to withstand climate-driven extreme floods, particularly in areas of unplanned urban development like Metro Manila.
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Document type: Research paper
Sustainable Asset Valuation of Reforestation in Uganda
The Nature-Based Infrastructure Global Resource Centre analyzed the Bring Back Our Trees project in Kasese, Uganda, which aims to reforest 30,270 hectares to combat climate-driven floods and landslides. The analysis found that the nature-based infrastructure approach generates a total net benefit of USD 69.1 million, providing a return of USD 5.44 for every dollar invested. Beyond flood mitigation, the interventions support carbon sequestration, biodiversity, job creation, and soil erosion prevention.
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Document type: Report