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The research concludes that South Africa does not need a dedicated state-owned export-import bank because its current trade finance market, comprising both private banks and state entities like the IDC and ECIC, is robust and sufficient. The authors argue that establishing a new ECA would be unfeasible due to severe fiscal constraints and would result in unnecessary market duplication. However, the paper identifies a significant gap in trade finance access for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and recommends that the IDC and ECIC prioritize streamlined solutions for this sector.

The report analyzes the HYBRIT process, which replaces coal with hydrogen for the direct reduction of iron ore combined with an electric arc furnace to create fossil-free steel. While technically feasible and potentially cost-competitive depending on electricity and carbon prices, the transition faces systemic barriers including high investment risks, the need for large-scale electrolysis infrastructure, and the risk of carbon leakage in a globally competitive market.

The document outlines the economic necessity for South Africa to transition toward low-carbon manufacturing, identifying specific opportunities in renewable energy, transport, agriprocessing, water, and the circular economy. It emphasizes the need for policy clarity, local procurement, and a 'just transition' that protects workers and informal waste pickers.

The policy brief contends that South Africa's financial sector fails to fund productive investment in labour-intensive manufacturing because these sectors are high-risk and offer low short-term profits. It argues that existing DFIs, specifically the Industrial Development Corporation (IDC) and the Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA), are too small and constrained by commercial funding models to fulfill their developmental mandates. The author proposes recapitalising these institutions with public funds, providing a stable low-cost funding line, and establishing an export-import (EXIM) bank to compete with other emerging markets like China and Brazil. These measures are intended to support sectors such as capital equipment exports, automotive subcomponents, and textiles to drive job creation.

The Institute for Economic Justice (IEJ) contends that South Africa's reliance on microeconomic interventions and 'orthodox' macroeconomic policies—characterized by fiscal austerity and high interest rates—has failed to curb unemployment. The brief proposes a R500 billion fiscal stimulus and a fundamental shift in the South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) mandate to prioritize employment and growth over strict inflation targeting. It suggests various funding mechanisms for the stimulus, including increased taxation, moderate borrowing, and the use of over-capitalized pension funds. Additionally, it advocates for 'Quantitative Monetary Easing' (QME) to provide direct credit to productive sectors and the implementation of capital controls to stabilize the exchange rate and curb speculative capital flows.

The policy brief critiques the South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) focus on price stability, arguing that high interest rates and inflation targeting contribute to de-industrialisation and unemployment. It proposes replacing these tools with 'Real Quantitative Monetary Easing' (QME), the monetisation of debt, and Overt Monetary Financing (OMF) to support SMMEs and public infrastructure. The author advocates for a close working relationship between the SARB and National Treasury to de-financialise the economy and establish public banks to direct credit toward productive investment.

The document examines how digitalization is restructuring global value chains and the risks it poses to developing nations, such as increased technological divides and value capture by advanced economies. It contrasts the digital industrial policies of the EU (market-friendly) and China (interventionist) to propose a dual-track policy framework for developing countries: 'enabling markets' (focusing on infrastructure, ecosystems, and mitigating disbenefits) and 'digital catch-up' (focusing on technology linkage, learning, and economic leverage). The authors highlight specific instruments like payment interoperability, data localization, and fiscal incentives, while warning of implementation hurdles such as ministerial silos and international trade agreement constraints.

The document outlines a four-step process for governments to integrate the mining sector into national development plans through local content policies. It categorizes these policies into five main types: local procurement, direct local employment, horizontal linkages (infrastructure and capacity), downstream linkages (product enrichment), and the strengthening of national mining companies. The guide emphasizes that there is no one-size-fits-all model, as success depends on a country's specific industrial base, skills availability, and business climate. It also addresses cross-cutting challenges, such as the impact of automation on employment and the potential conflicts between local content requirements and international trade and investment laws.

The report argues that Africa is currently deindustrialising, with structural transformation shifting from low-productivity agriculture to low-productivity urban retail services. It posits that manufacturing is unique in its ability to induce rapid economic growth and productivity gains. The author suggests that the fourth industrial revolution—characterised by robotics, AI, and 3D printing—could allow Africa to leapfrog traditional infrastructure deficits and establish regional value chains, provided governments implement determined industrial policies and invest in human capital and ICT.

The document analyzes the rise and fall of Australia's domestic steel industry, which was initially built through protective tariffs, bounties, and an iron ore export ban from 1938 to 1960. While these measures successfully met domestic demand for over 80 years, the industry struggled with low productivity and failed to become globally competitive once protections were lifted. Later attempts by the Western Australian government in 1996 to mandate downstream beneficiation through legislative acts led to expensive projects by BHP and Rio Tinto that never reached economic viability and were eventually written off. The case study concludes that while government intervention can establish downstream industries, long-term success requires a sophisticated industrial policy based on comparative advantages and market capabilities rather than prescriptive requirements.

The document analyzes Botswana's approach to increasing local procurement in mining through the Economic Diversification Drive. It identifies a disconnect where demand-side preferences lack enforcement, leaving local procurement dependent on supply-side initiatives. While programs like the Private Sector Development Programme (PSDP) exist, the study finds they often provide reactive support for financial crises rather than proactive management mentoring, suggesting a misalignment between policy priorities and the basic skill needs of small, micro and medium enterprises (SMMEs).

South Africa's mining sector historically drove industrialization by creating a specialized upstream supplier sector that overcame unique technological challenges of deep-level mining. These capabilities evolved into horizontal linkages, allowing firms to export expertise in products like coal-washing spirals and underground locomotives to other sectors and global markets. While the sector has declined as a percentage of GDP, it remains a critical export driver. Recent government policies have focused on socio-economic transformation and downstream beneficiation rather than supporting horizontal linkages, while skills shortages and policy uncertainty have hindered recent growth.

The guidance outlines a four-step process for creating local content policies: aligning with national objectives, taking stock of domestic capabilities, crafting specific policy instruments, and establishing monitoring and enforcement mechanisms. It details five types of local content objectives: local procurement, direct employment, horizontal linkages for diversification, downstream beneficiation, and the fostering of national mining firms. The document warns that policies must be context-specific and cautions against 'one-size-fits-all' solutions, noting that automation and international trade laws (such as WTO rules) present significant challenges to traditional local content strategies.

Australia employs a balanced approach to local procurement, combining national regulatory frameworks like the Australian Industry Participation (AIP) National Framework with state-level policies and Indigenous Land Use Agreements (ILUAs). Key demand-side measures include requiring AIP plans for projects exceeding AUD 500 million, while supply-side support is provided through the Supplier Access to Major Projects (SAMP) program and the ICN Gateway database. The country also aligns its education system with the needs of the Mining Equipment, Technology and Services (METS) sector and has previously used tax incentives like the Enhanced Project By-Law Scheme to reward firms implementing AIP plans.

Singapore established itself as a regional petroleum trading hub by combining a strategic geographical location with a 'twin-track' industrial strategy of minimal regulation and strong institutional support. Starting with oil refining in the 1960s, the government transitioned toward the petrochemicals sector in the 1980s via the 'cluster approach' at the Jurong Island Export Processing Zone. While facing challenges from regional competition, land scarcity, and environmental concerns, Singapore has maintained its edge through massive infrastructure projects, such as underground rock caverns for storage, and proactive policy adaptation.

The document analyzes how economic globalization and trade impact in-country inequality and social inclusion, arguing that while trade is often blamed for rising inequality, other factors like technology and political economy play more significant roles. It discusses the tension between national sovereignty for social cohesion and the multilateral rules-based order of the WTO. The author suggests that the WTO must adapt through incremental, plurilateral negotiations to remain relevant and avoid a return to mercantilist 'beggar thy neighbour' policies, while advising the South African government to balance its need for policy space with the preservation of the multilateral system.

The report analyzes the economic landscape of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), highlighting the dominance of South Africa and the structural challenges facing small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, and Swaziland (BLNS). Through eight case studies, it identifies critical bottlenecks including unreliable electricity, high transport costs, non-harmonized standards, and burdensome customs procedures. The paper argues that a SACU development fund could be a pivotal tool to finance regional infrastructure and regulatory reforms, moving beyond the current revenue-sharing model to foster genuine industrialization and pro-poor economic outcomes.

Tanzania has liberalized its economy and leveraged political stability and strategic location to become a leading FDI destination in the East African Community. However, the country faces significant structural challenges, including a lack of skilled labor, cumbersome land tenure systems, and an outdated network of first-generation bilateral investment treaties that limit the government's policy space for industrial development. The paper recommends modernizing investment treaties, reforming land laws to empower smallholders, and strengthening the Tanzania Investment Centre to better integrate local SMEs into global value chains.

The author contends that Europe is vulnerable to 'foreign economic statecraft' because it lacks a unified investment screening mechanism. While Chinese investment in high-tech sectors has surged, often driven by state-owned enterprises and strategic plans like 'Made in China 2025', the EU relies on a fragmented 'hodgepodge' of national regimes. The document highlights failures in Germany's response to the acquisitions of Kuka and Aixtron as evidence of this helplessness. It proposes that the EU should adapt legislation to help Member States block dangerous mergers and create a common consultative body to 'Europeanise' national decision-making, citing the US CFIUS model as a gold standard for such oversight.

The document examines South Africa's transition from a liberal FDI regime to one focused on 'public interest' and sustainable development. It analyzes the role of the Competition Act and the Protection of Investment Act (PIA) in regulating mergers and acquisitions (M&As), using the Walmart-Massmart merger as a case study to illustrate the tension between investor interests and domestic socio-economic goals. The paper highlights risks associated with the PIA, such as the loss of international arbitration and subjective compensation standards, while suggesting improvements through a 'One-Stop Shop' for investors and support for small, medium and micro-sized enterprises (SMMEs) to integrate into regional value chains.