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The document details a discussion on South Africa's trade strategy amidst the suspension of WTO Doha Round negotiations and regional pressures. Panelists debated whether trade policy should be driven by domestic economic needs through unilateral reform or by strategic industrial policy and negotiated agreements. Key discussions covered the gridlock over agricultural subsidies in the WTO, the limited scope of existing free trade agreements (FTAs), and the complexities of achieving a SADC Customs Union by 2010.

The document analyses the transition of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) from a model of South African dominance and protectionism to one of 'open regionalism' and consensus-based decision-making under the 2002 agreement. Using game theory to explain the difficulties of regional cooperation, it argues that SACU's historical durability relied on a tradeoff where smaller members accepted South African policy dominance in exchange for generous shares of a common revenue pool. The 2002 agreement threatens this balance by seeking to reduce external tariffs, which would likely shrink the revenue pool, while granting smaller members veto rights over such reductions. The author suggests that for SACU to succeed in deepening integration or expanding membership to countries like Mozambique, Malawi, Zambia, or Zimbabwe, it must find new ways to align the strategic self-interests of member governments with collective developmental goals.

The report assesses the potential for aerospace co-operation between India, Brazil, and South Africa (IBSA). It details South Africa's aerospace and defence capabilities, the government's Aerospace Industry Support Initiative (AISI), and the role of industrial participation policies in integrating firms like Aerosud and Denel into global supply chains. While identifying three key areas for IBSA collaboration—expanding supply chains, strategic defence systems, and small satellites—the report highlights significant barriers, most notably corruption allegations against Denel by the Indian government and the challenge of balancing South-South co-operation with existing partnerships with 'first-tier' global contractors.

The report assesses the potential for aerospace collaboration between India, Brazil, and South Africa, noting that while there is high political interest and complementary capabilities, actual collaboration is currently minimal. It highlights South Africa's strategic shift toward becoming a preferred supplier of subsystems to global contractors, exemplified by its role in the Airbus A400M programme. Key opportunities for IBSA co-operation include expanding supply chains for regional aircraft, collaborating on strategic defence systems, and developing small and micro satellites. However, the report identifies significant barriers, most notably corruption allegations involving Denel and the Indian government, as well as the challenge of balancing South-South co-operation with existing partnerships with 'first-tier' Northern contractors.

The document examines the dynamics of trade between China and the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), noting that while South African exports of resources are booming, the region faces significant job losses in labour-intensive light industries like apparel and footwear due to Chinese competition. It discusses the tension between the welfare gains of cheaper imports for the poor and the political pressure from trade unions and business to protect domestic industry. The text suggests that SACU is likely to pursue a narrow, symbolic preferential agreement similar to its deals with Mercosur and India, although some participants argue that a comprehensive FTA would better force necessary economic adjustments and improve long-term productivity.

In this inaugural address, the Director of the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) asserts that Africa's development depends on internal agency rather than external aid. The author highlights the importance of the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) and NEPAD in fostering good governance and accountability. The text warns against a 'new scramble for Africa' driven by China's demand for raw materials, urging states to implement industrial policies and beneficiation to avoid neo-imperialist patterns. It concludes that while international interest and growth are positive, sustainable progress requires capable state institutions, proactive leadership, and a move away from ideological rigidity.

The author argues that the South African government should proceed with caution regarding a free-trade area with China. While there are opportunities in agriculture and commodities, the author warns of potential economic dislocation in labour-intensive industries like textiles and footwear. The document also highlights a significant discrepancy between South African and Chinese trade data and questions whether a free-trade area is necessary given China's existing WTO commitments.

The document analyzes the investment regimes of Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, Malaysia, and Thailand, highlighting that bilateral investment treaties (BITs) are not always necessary to attract FDI. It identifies systemic challenges, including the 'disorder' of overlapping international obligations, the lack of data on FDI's impact on poverty and sustainable development, and the tension between investor-state arbitration and domestic policy goals like Black Economic Empowerment in South Africa.

The document examines Brazil's role in the FTAA negotiations, highlighting the tension between Brazil's desire for agricultural market access and the US's push for the inclusion of 'Singapore issues' such as investment and intellectual property. It details Brazil's efforts to protect sensitive industrial sectors and its strategic use of Mercosur to avoid isolation as the US pursues bilateral agreements with other Latin American nations. The analysis concludes that the FTAA is shifting toward a flexible 'ALCA-lite' framework with a limited built-in agenda.

The report argues that while South Africa has undergone significant trade liberalisation since 1994, further openness is necessary to enhance global competitiveness, provided it is co-operatively managed to maintain social stability. It examines the shift from import-substitution to a multi-faceted industrial strategy, the impact of tariff reforms, and South Africa's engagement with the WTO and regional partners like the EU and SADC.

The document draws a parallel between the U.S. military's success in the Gulf War and Japan's success in high-technology trade, attributing both to 'time-based competitive strategy'. It explains Colonel John Boyd's OODA loop (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act) as the theoretical framework for this approach, which emphasizes speed, flexibility, and the reduction of 'friction'. The author contends that while the U.S. military successfully transitioned from attrition-based to maneuver-based warfare, U.S. industry remains mired in rigid, top-heavy bureaucracies and mass production. This disparity has led to a critical dependence on Japanese components for U.S. weapons systems and a decline in American economic security. The report recommends federal investment in advanced manufacturing R&D, worker retraining, and infrastructure to revitalize the U.S. industrial base.

The policy brief recommends that Europe move beyond a heavy reliance on renewable energy and electrification by supporting a broader suite of technologies, including nuclear energy and carbon capture and storage. It analyses the U.S. policy framework—specifically the Energy Act of 2020, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)—as a model for bridging the gap between R&D and large-scale commercial 'take-off'. Key recommendations for the EU include streamlining regulations, providing 'self-activating' incentives, and proactively planning shared infrastructure for CO2 and hydrogen to reduce investor risk and accelerate deployment.

The report assesses the European Union's fusion energy ecosystem using a SWOT analysis and proposes a shift toward a 'Key Enabling Technologies' (KET)-based strategy. It recommends consolidating governance under the Fusion for Energy (F4E) Joint Undertaking, establishing public-private partnerships, and separating fusion regulation from fission regulation to attract private investment and accelerate commercialisation.

The report presents ten propositions on the intersection of climate change and economic growth, emphasizing that while growth is essential for poverty reduction in developing nations, it must be decoupled from carbon emissions. It advocates for 'climate compatible development'—a framework that minimizes climate harm while maximizing human development opportunities. The author argues that low-carbon growth is feasible and can act as an industrial policy to create jobs and competitive advantages. The document highlights the need for national strategies that move from 'blueprint planning' to 'process planning,' the importance of leveraging private finance through 'investment-grade' policy frameworks, and the necessity of building political consensus to ensure long-term stability in climate policy.

The document argues that the 2026 JTWP dialogues should be structured around international cooperation, technical assistance, capacity-building, and knowledge sharing to inform the design of the Just Transition Mechanism. Drawing on research from the Global South, it highlights critical gaps in financing for social protection, the risks of extractive dynamics in critical mineral supply chains, and the need for technology co-development rather than simple transfer. It specifically identifies needs for better disaggregated data in countries like Uganda and Kenya, and the risk of 'greening elsewhere' in Indonesia due to coal-powered nickel smelting.

The report argues that the United States can leverage its vast offshore wind potential to provide 10-25% of its total electricity generation by 2050 without significantly increasing wholesale costs. It details three ambition scenarios (Low, Medium, and High), noting that a High Ambition target of 750 GW by 2050 would result in wholesale costs only 0.25% higher than a baseline scenario. The analysis emphasizes that offshore wind complements land-based renewables, reducing the required installation rate of the latter. However, scaling the industry requires substantial capital investment—exceeding $260 billion in the supply chain through 2045—and a shift toward clustered transmission planning to reduce interconnection costs by 35%. The report also projects that a High Ambition scenario could support approximately 390,000 jobs by 2050.

The South African Renewable Energy Masterplan (SAREM) is one of 14 industry-specific masterplans led by the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition (dtic) to develop an industrial plan for the renewable energy sector. The process involves a collaboration between government, industry, and labour to identify investment and job creation opportunities linked to the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). The development is structured in two phases: a research and consultation phase using three policy scenarios to quantify market size, and a writing phase to prioritise actions and policy levers. Oversight is provided by an Executive Oversight Committee chaired by the Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy, supported by an Industry Working Group and Industry Reference Groups.

The report argues that South Africa can transition its mobility sector to zero-emission vehicles by leveraging the Atlantis Special Economic Zone (ASEZ) to attract EV assembly and component manufacturing. It highlights a strategic opportunity in public transport, noting a potential market of 350,000 minibus taxis and 65,000 buses. The document identifies high import taxes (at least 42% for EVs) as a barrier to uptake that local manufacturing at the ASEZ could overcome. It recommends targeting global OEMs like Tesla and BYD, as well as local startups like MellowVans and Green Riders, while emphasizing the need to localize the production of lithium-ion battery cells and semi-conductors to secure the value chain.

The report examines Ghana's energy, industrial, and gender policies, finding that while there is a strong focus on localisation and renewable energy targets, there is a lack of specific mechanisms to integrate small, medium and micro enterprises (SMMEs) and women into the production networks. It highlights implementation lags in the Renewable Energy Master Plan and the absence of a unified industrial policy, recommending targeted financial support and gender-responsive budgeting to ensure a just transition.

The policy brief highlights a severe economic downturn in South Africa during the third quarter of 2021, characterized by a 1.5% GDP contraction and record-high unemployment. It identifies specific vulnerabilities among youth, Black African women, and informal workers, while noting significant job losses in retail, hospitality, and community services. To mitigate these effects and prevent social instability, the author recommends a suite of interventions including wage support, expanded social grants, sector-specific loans for tourism, and increased funding for industrial policy.