Tread lightly around China trade treaties

The author argues that the South African government should proceed with caution regarding a free-trade area with China. While there are opportunities in agriculture and commodities, the author warns of potential economic dislocation in labour-intensive industries like textiles and footwear. The document also highlights a significant discrepancy between South African and Chinese trade data and questions whether a free-trade area is necessary given China's existing WTO commitments.

• There is a significant discrepancy in bilateral trade data: South African figures show a trade deficit of approximately R10bn out of R23bn total trade, while Chinese figures indicate a small surplus in South Africa's favour.
• A free-trade area may offer limited additional market access for South Africa's primary exports, as minerals and base metals make up about 65% of exports to China and over 90% of these already face tariffs of 10% or less.
• Liberalising trade in labour-intensive goods, such as clothing, textiles, and footwear—which account for about one-third of Chinese exports to South Africa and currently face tariffs above 20%—could cause severe economic dislocation and threaten social stability.
• The potential for gaining further market access in the services sector through a free-trade area is unclear because China's WTO services commitments are already extensive and the country is unlikely to alter regulations for small partners.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2004). Tread lightly around China trade treaties. https://saiia.org.za/research/tread-lightly-around-china-trade-treaties/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. Tread lightly around China trade treaties. 2004. https://saiia.org.za/research/tread-lightly-around-china-trade-treaties/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=Tread lightly around China trade treaties |date=12 October 2004 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/tread-lightly-around-china-trade-treaties/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2004tread, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{Tread lightly around China trade treaties}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2004}, month = oct, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/tread-lightly-around-china-trade-treaties/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }