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The statement calls for COP30 in Belem to establish an action plan for a just transition to 100% renewable energy, specifically targeting the reform of multilateral development banks (MDBs). It argues that current MDB models prioritise private profit and increase debt in the Global South, citing examples of harmful green hydrogen and hydropower projects. The authors propose three shifts: an immediate end to fossil fuel and 'false solution' finance, the provision of grants instead of debt-creating instruments, and a move toward small-scale, community-owned renewable energy projects to ensure energy sovereignty.

The world is currently ahead of the curve to triple renewable capacity by 2030 due to an average annual addition growth of 29% from 2023 to 2025. However, IEA forecasts suggest a potential shortfall, with the main case predicting only 9,530 GW by 2030 due to policy changes in the US and China, primarily driven by deficits in wind and hydro capacity.

Global renewable capacity additions are forecast to reach a record 793 GW in 2025, driven largely by solar and China's deployment. While the actual annual growth rate of additions from 2023 to 2025 (29%) has exceeded the 21% required to triple capacity by 2030, IEA forecasts suggest a potential 15% shortfall in capacity and a 28% shortfall in generation by 2030, primarily due to lags in wind and hydro. National targets remain insufficient, aiming for just over a doubling of capacity (7,793 GW) rather than a tripling, with solar targets particularly lagging behind actual deployment trends.

The report examines the land-use intensity of various renewable energy sources and proposes dual-land-use systems—such as agrivoltaics and ecovoltaics—to mitigate land degradation and enhance biodiversity and food security. It emphasizes the need for cross-sectoral policy coordination, inclusive governance, and targeted finance to ensure the energy transition does not compromise land health or local livelihoods.

The document highlights the risks of planning water and energy sectors in isolation, particularly as climate change increases water stress and impacts hydropower. It proposes the combined use of the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) and Water Evaluation and Adaptation Planning (WEAP) tools, alongside macroeconomic modelling, to identify trade-offs and synergies. Case studies in Rwanda and Central Asia illustrate how this integrated approach can prevent GDP losses and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The brief further suggests that such integration helps countries align their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) to optimize limited climate finance.

The report finds that while Kenya has successfully increased its renewable electricity generation to 87% by 2022, the transition lacks policy coherence regarding affordability and equity. High electricity tariffs, driven by infrastructure investments and a distribution monopoly, hinder industrial competitiveness and limit energy access for vulnerable groups. The analysis identifies a significant trade-off between coal-based industrialization goals and climate mitigation targets, though the latter has gained dominance due to international financial pressure. Institutional barriers, including corruption and limited resources for social equity, further impede a just transition.

India is generally on track to meet its NEP 2032 capacity mix, with solar, hydro, and coal well-positioned to reach targets. However, onshore wind additions must accelerate, and nuclear capacity is likely to fall short due to long lead times and a limited near-term pipeline. Battery and pumped hydro storage are expanding rapidly to support renewables integration.

The report argues that as India expands solar and wind capacity, coal's role will shift from baseload provider to a flexible balancing resource, leading to lower plant load factors (PLFs) and higher effective costs. By FY 2031-32, coal-based electricity is projected to be roughly 25% costlier than in FY 2024-25. The analysis suggests that the ~35 GW of coal capacity currently under construction is sufficient for reliability, making further coal expansion uneconomical compared to firm and dispatchable renewable energy (FDRE) and storage options.

The document outlines a framework for financing a just energy transition in Indonesia, emphasizing the need to address socioeconomic risks for workers and communities affected by the retirement of coal power plants. It highlights the potential for renewable energy to create between 2.1 million and 3.7 million direct jobs by 2030 and notes a total investment requirement of approximately USD 97 billion to meet 2030 climate targets. The proposed framework focuses on 'restorative justice' through preventative actions, such as reskilling and debt refinancing, and transformative actions, such as green job creation and the development of renewable energy cooperatives.

In the first half of 2025, global solar and wind generation grew sufficiently to meet and exceed total electricity demand growth, leading to renewables overtaking coal in the global electricity mix for the first time. Solar generation saw record absolute growth, while total fossil fuel generation declined slightly. Consequently, global CO2 emissions from the power sector fell marginally by 0.2%, although results varied by region, with emissions decreasing in China and India but increasing in the US and EU.

In the first half of 2025, global solar and wind generation grew sufficiently to exceed total electricity demand growth, leading to renewables overtaking coal's share of the global electricity mix for the first time on record. While China and India saw declines in fossil fuel generation and emissions, the US and EU experienced increases due to demand growth outpacing clean energy in the US and unfavorable weather affecting wind and hydro in the EU.

Between 2019 and 2023, Indonesia's power sector saw total reported investments of USD 38.02 billion, with fossil fuels (FF) dominating at 62% of the share. The report highlights a significant gap in 'unreported' investment in captive coal-fired power plants (CFPPs), estimated at USD 10.63 billion. While renewable energy (RE) investment reached USD 8.85 billion, it remains concentrated in baseload sources like hydropower and geothermal. Private international financial institutions are the primary drivers of fossil fuel investment, whereas RE is increasingly supported by domestic private sources. Analysis of PLN reveals that coal plants account for 46% of annual operating costs, and PLN-owned solar plants suffer from severe inefficiency with a capacity factor of only 4% compared to a 16% benchmark.

The report analyzes water insecurities in the Mekong region, driven by environmental pressures, socio-economic inequalities, and governance failures. It evaluates interventions such as community-based infrastructure, adaptive agricultural practices, and inclusive governance models, while recommending decentralized management and strengthened transboundary cooperation.

Thailand's draft revised power development plan (RPDP) targets a 51% renewable energy share by 2037, up from a previous target of 36%. Despite plans to phase out up to 8 GW of fossil fuel capacity by 2037, the RPDP still includes 6.3 GW of new gas capacity. The report warns that increasing reliance on imported liquefied natural gas (LNG)—which is projected to reach 60% of the gas mix by 2035—exposes Thailand to price volatility and geopolitical risks, as evidenced by a 141% surge in the import bill between 2021 and 2022. The document suggests that Thailand could be more aggressive in transitioning away from fossils to avoid economic vulnerability and stranded assets.

The report proposes a cost-optimal energy pathway for Thailand that exceeds the Revised Power Development Plan (RPDP) targets by adding 32 GW of solar and 6 GW/15 GWh of battery storage by 2037. This shift would result in cumulative cost savings of $1.8 billion and avoid 147 million tonnes of CO2 emissions. The analysis suggests that Thailand can meet its demand without adding 2 GW of planned natural gas capacity, as solar and batteries can cover growth from data centres and EV charging. While wind power is deemed financially unviable unless capital expenditures drop by 10% annually, the report suggests importing hydropower from Lao PDR as a cost-effective alternative to wind, despite risks related to import dependency and climate-driven droughts.

The report proposes a cost-optimal energy pathway for Thailand through 2037, suggesting that increasing solar capacity by 89% and battery storage by 60% relative to the draft revised power development plan (RPDP) 2024 can save $1.8 billion in power generation costs. This pathway aims to meet rising electricity demand from data centres (projected 10 TWh increase) and electric vehicles (projected 3.3 GW peak load increase) while reducing natural gas imports by 1,815 billion cubic feet. The analysis finds that wind energy is not financially viable without a 10% annual CAPEX reduction, suggesting imported hydropower from Lao PDR as a more cost-effective alternative.

The analysis compares four scenarios for Africa's emissions: Business-as-usual (BAU), Net-zero by 2050 (NZ50), Net-zero by 2070 (NZ70), and Net-zero by 2100 (NZ100). While all net-zero pathways see renewables become the dominant energy source and a sharp fall in fossil fuel reliance, the timing of the transition creates significant trade-offs. The NZ50 scenario achieves the fastest emissions decline, reaching -0.33 GtCO₂/yr by 2050, but incurs the highest marginal abatement cost (averaging $78 per ton of CO₂) and causes the most disruption to food systems, including a 31% contraction in cropland and a near doubling of staple food prices. All net-zero scenarios rely on bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), which shifts water demand from agriculture to the energy sector. Regional challenges vary, with Western Africa facing steep decarbonization due to oil and gas reliance, and Southern Africa managing a coal-dependent system.

In August 2025, wind and solar power generated 34% of Brazil's electricity, totaling 19.0 TWh, the highest monthly share on record. This growth has allowed Brazil to maintain low fossil fuel generation (14% in August 2025) despite hydro output hitting a four-year low of 27 TWh due to drought. Between 2014 and 2024, wind and solar generation increased fifteenfold, contributing to a 31% decline in power sector emissions to 79 MtCO2 in 2024. While demand growth has accelerated to 5.3% in 2024, solar capacity additions slowed in the first half of 2025 to 7.1 GW due to grid congestion and regulatory uncertainty.

A forecast for extreme heat across the Southwest U.S. and northern Mexico indicates temperatures up to 18°F above normal, with the Climate Shift Index (CSI) attributing a level 5 likelihood to human-caused climate change. Approximately 53 million people are expected to be affected by these conditions, which are compounded by persistent drought in the region.

Two years after the COP28 agreement to triple global renewable capacity by 2030, national targets remain largely stagnant. As of July 2025, the global sum of national targets has increased by only 2% since COP28, reaching 7.4 TW, which is significantly below the 11 TW required to meet the tripling goal. Only 22 countries have updated their targets, with the majority of these being EU member states revising plans through the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) process. Most non-EU updates occurred through routine planning cycles rather than as a direct response to COP pledges. Major electricity markets, including the US, Russia, and Canada, have either not set explicit targets or are unlikely to update them in 2025.