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A forecast for extreme heat across the Southwest U.S. and northern Mexico indicates temperatures up to 18°F above normal, with the Climate Shift Index (CSI) attributing a level 5 likelihood to human-caused climate change. Approximately 53 million people are expected to be affected by these conditions, which are compounded by persistent drought in the region.

The Southwest United States experienced an extreme heat event from June 6 to June 13, 2024, with human-caused climate change making high temperatures at least five times more likely. The event caused record-setting temperatures in cities like Phoenix and Las Vegas, led to numerous hospitalizations for heat exhaustion, and contributed to wildfires in California.

The document details the rising trends of heat waves and heat stress in the US, attributing recent increases to human-caused climate change and projecting more severe events by 2100 unless emissions are stabilized.