Thailand’s cost-optimal pathway to a sustainable economy

The report proposes a cost-optimal energy pathway for Thailand through 2037, suggesting that increasing solar capacity by 89% and battery storage by 60% relative to the draft revised power development plan (RPDP) 2024 can save $1.8 billion in power generation costs. This pathway aims to meet rising electricity demand from data centres (projected 10 TWh increase) and electric vehicles (projected 3.3 GW peak load increase) while reducing natural gas imports by 1,815 billion cubic feet. The analysis finds that wind energy is not financially viable without a 10% annual CAPEX reduction, suggesting imported hydropower from Lao PDR as a more cost-effective alternative.

• Increasing solar capacity by 89% and battery storage by 60% beyond the RPDP targets can save Thailand $1.8 billion in power generation costs by 2037, despite requiring a higher total fixed expenditure of $168 billion compared to the RPDP's $153 billion.
• The cost-optimal pathway significantly enhances energy security by reducing natural gas use by 1,815 billion cubic feet by 2037, which is nearly double the amount consumed for power generation in 2024, resulting in nearly $16 billion in fuel cost savings between 2026 and 2037.
• To reliably meet additional demand from the data centre boom (10 TWh) and EV charging (3.3 GW peak load) by 2037, the report recommends adding 32 GW of solar and 6 GW/15 GWh of battery storage beyond RPDP targets, rather than adding 2 GW of new gas capacity.
• Wind energy is deemed not cost-competitive in Thailand due to limited resources; it would only be viable in a cost-optimal pathway if capital expenditure (CAPEX) declined by 10% annually between 2031 and 2037, falling from $1,591/kW to $761/kW.
• Replacing 5 GW of planned wind capacity (2031-2037) with 2.5 GW of imported hydropower from Lao PDR could increase cumulative cost savings by up to $5 billion from 2026 to 2037, reducing the average LCOE by $1.3/MWh.
• The cost-optimal pathway would avoid 147 million tonnes of CO2 emissions by 2037 and reduce the share of fossil fuels in the generation mix from over 80% in 2024 to approximately 40% by 2037.

APA

Pham, L., & Setyawati, D. (2025). Thailand’s cost-optimal pathway to a sustainable economy. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/09/Report-Thailands-cost-optimal-pathway-to-a-sustainable-economy-PDF.pdf

Chicago

Pham, Lam, and Dinita Setyawati. Thailand’s cost-optimal pathway to a sustainable economy. Ember, 2025. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/09/Report-Thailands-cost-optimal-pathway-to-a-sustainable-economy-PDF.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Pham |first1=Lam |last2=Setyawati |first2=Dinita |title=Thailand’s cost-optimal pathway to a sustainable economy |publisher=Ember |date=30 September 2025 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/09/Report-Thailands-cost-optimal-pathway-to-a-sustainable-economy-PDF.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{pham2025thailands, author = {Pham, Lam and Setyawati, Dinita}, title = {{Thailand’s cost-optimal pathway to a sustainable economy}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2025}, month = sep, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/09/Report-Thailands-cost-optimal-pathway-to-a-sustainable-economy-PDF.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }