Coal’s diminishing role in India’s electricity transition

This report analyzes the diminishing role of coal in India's electricity transition toward the National Electricity Plan (NEP) 2032 targets. It finds that as solar and wind capacity grows, coal is shifting from a baseload provider to a flexible balancing resource, leading to lower Plant Load Factors (PLFs) and a projected 25% increase in effective coal costs by FY 2031-32. The analysis concludes that no new coal capacity beyond the ~35 GW currently under construction is needed, as Firm and Dispatchable Renewable Energy (FDRE) and solar-plus-storage are becoming more cost-competitive than new coal plants.

• India is generally on track to meet its NEP-2032 capacity targets for solar, coal, and hydro, though wind capacity additions need to accelerate and nuclear is likely to fall short. Solar is seeing record growth with 23.8 GW added in FY 2024–25 and 22 GW commissioned by September 2025. Battery energy storage systems (BESS) and pumped hydro storage (PHS) are expanding rapidly, making the 236 GWh BESS target and 26.7 GW PHS target attainable.
• Coal's role in the power system is shifting from baseload provider to a flexible balancing resource to accommodate variable renewable energy. By FY 2031–32, coal plants will need to operate closer to their minimum technical limits (MTL) to avoid solar curtailment. The model projects a daily swing of approximately 78 GW, with coal output peaking at 190 GW during non-solar hours and ramping down to roughly 112 GW at midday solar peaks.

APA

Rodrigues, N., Das, D., & Ewen, M. (2025). Coal’s diminishing role in India’s electricity transition. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/10/Coals-diminishing-role-in-Indias-electricity-transition.pdf

Chicago

Rodrigues, Neshwin, Duttatreya Das, and Matt Ewen. Coal’s diminishing role in India’s electricity transition. Ember, 2025. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/10/Coals-diminishing-role-in-Indias-electricity-transition.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Rodrigues |first1=Neshwin |last2=Das |first2=Duttatreya |last3=Ewen |first3=Matt |title=Coal’s diminishing role in India’s electricity transition |publisher=Ember |date=29 October 2025 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/10/Coals-diminishing-role-in-Indias-electricity-transition.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rodrigues2025coals, author = {Rodrigues, Neshwin and Das, Duttatreya and Ewen, Matt}, title = {{Coal’s diminishing role in India’s electricity transition}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2025}, month = oct, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/10/Coals-diminishing-role-in-Indias-electricity-transition.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }