Cost-optimal pathways for Thailand’s power sector development

The report proposes a cost-optimal energy pathway for Thailand that exceeds the Revised Power Development Plan (RPDP) targets by adding 32 GW of solar and 6 GW/15 GWh of battery storage by 2037. This shift would result in cumulative cost savings of $1.8 billion and avoid 147 million tonnes of CO2 emissions. The analysis suggests that Thailand can meet its demand without adding 2 GW of planned natural gas capacity, as solar and batteries can cover growth from data centres and EV charging. While wind power is deemed financially unviable unless capital expenditures drop by 10% annually, the report suggests importing hydropower from Lao PDR as a cost-effective alternative to wind, despite risks related to import dependency and climate-driven droughts.

• Increasing solar capacity by 32 GW and battery storage by 6 GW/15 GWh beyond the RPDP targets by 2037 would result in net cumulative cost savings of $1.8 billion and avoid 147 million tonnes of CO2 emissions.
• Thailand can meet its future electricity demand, including additional needs from data centres and EV charging (estimated at 10 TWh of energy and 3.3 GW peak load by 2037), without the 2 GW of new natural gas capacity planned for 2035 and 2036.
• Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) are critical for system adequacy; the model indicates a need for nearly 4 GW of BESS by 2030 to maintain a 15% reserve margin and manage solar variability, necessitating deployment starting in 2027.
• Onshore wind power is not considered cost-optimal for Thailand due to low average wind speeds (2.8-4 m/s) and high costs; it would only be viable if capital expenditure decreased by 10% annually between 2031 and 2037.
• Replacing 5 GW of planned wind capacity with 2.5 GW of imported hydropower from Lao PDR could increase cumulative cost savings by up to $5 billion from 2026 to 2037, though this increases import dependency and exposure to climate-driven drought risks.

APA

Ember (2025). Cost-optimal pathways for Thailand’s power sector development. https://ember-energy.org/chapter/cost-optimal-pathways-for-thailands-power-sector-development/

Chicago

Ember. Cost-optimal pathways for Thailand’s power sector development. 2025. https://ember-energy.org/chapter/cost-optimal-pathways-for-thailands-power-sector-development/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Ember |title=Cost-optimal pathways for Thailand’s power sector development |date=30 September 2025 |url=https://ember-energy.org/chapter/cost-optimal-pathways-for-thailands-power-sector-development/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ember2025costoptimal, author = {{Ember}}, title = {{Cost-optimal pathways for Thailand’s power sector development}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2025}, month = sep, url = {https://ember-energy.org/chapter/cost-optimal-pathways-for-thailands-power-sector-development/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }