Renewable additions in 2025 are once again expected to surge, putting tripling within reach

Global renewable capacity additions are forecast to reach a record 793 GW in 2025, driven largely by solar and China's deployment. While the actual annual growth rate of additions from 2023 to 2025 (29%) has exceeded the 21% required to triple capacity by 2030, IEA forecasts suggest a potential 15% shortfall in capacity and a 28% shortfall in generation by 2030, primarily due to lags in wind and hydro. National targets remain insufficient, aiming for just over a doubling of capacity (7,793 GW) rather than a tripling, with solar targets particularly lagging behind actual deployment trends.

• Global renewable capacity additions are projected to reach a record 793 GW in 2025, representing an 11% increase over the 717 GW added in 2024.
• China is the primary driver of global growth, expected to account for 66% of solar and 69% of wind capacity additions in 2025.
• The world has outperformed the growth rate needed to triple renewables; additions grew by an average of 29% annually from 2023 to 2025, whereas a 21% annual growth rate was required. Consequently, additions only need to rise by 12% per year from 2026 to 2030 to meet the target.
• Despite the growth, the IEA's main case forecast predicts a 15% shortfall in capacity by 2030 (reaching 9,530 GW instead of 11 TW). This results in a larger 28% shortfall in electricity generation because the gaps are concentrated in wind and hydro, which have higher capacity factors than solar.
• National 2030 renewable targets are not aligned with the tripling goal, having increased by only 8% since COP28 to a total of 7,793 GW, which reflects a doubling rather than a tripling of capacity from 2022 levels.
• There is a significant gap between national solar targets and actual deployment; combined national targets are 3,110 GW, which is barely half of the 6,101 GW required for a global tripling.
• Wind capacity targets and forecasts are roughly aligned but both fall short of the 2,742 GW needed for a tripling, with national targets aiming for 2,223 GW.

APA

Altieri, K., & Jones, D. (2025). Renewable additions in 2025 are once again expected to surge, putting tripling within reach. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Report-2025-Renewable-additions-surging-putting-tripling-within-reach.pdf

Chicago

Altieri, Katye, and Dave Jones. Renewable additions in 2025 are once again expected to surge, putting tripling within reach. Ember, 2025. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Report-2025-Renewable-additions-surging-putting-tripling-within-reach.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Altieri |first1=Katye |last2=Jones |first2=Dave |title=Renewable additions in 2025 are once again expected to surge, putting tripling within reach |publisher=Ember |date=6 November 2025 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Report-2025-Renewable-additions-surging-putting-tripling-within-reach.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{altieri2025renewable, author = {Altieri, Katye and Jones, Dave}, title = {{Renewable additions in 2025 are once again expected to surge, putting tripling within reach}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2025}, month = nov, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Report-2025-Renewable-additions-surging-putting-tripling-within-reach.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }