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Indonesia's RUKN 2024-2060 projects a coal capacity increase of 26.8 GW by 2031, primarily driven by over 20 GW of new captive coal plants for mineral processing. This expansion is expected to push coal generation to a peak of 494 TWh in 2037, contradicting the country's Low Carbon Scenario and JETP targets. The report highlights that new captive coal is more expensive than grid-connected coal and renewables, while lacking the emissions reporting and trading requirements imposed on the grid. It recommends reassessing captive coal plans, enforcing stricter emissions standards, and accelerating renewable energy deployment to avoid carbon lock-in.

The report examines the implementation of the EU and UK Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms (CBAMs) and the preliminary findings of Australia's Carbon Leakage Review. It highlights the shift from free allocation of emissions permits to border adjustments to prevent carbon leakage, where emissions reductions in one country are offset by increases elsewhere. The EU CBAM is set for full implementation by 2026, and the UK CBAM by 2027. Australia is considering a BCA as a 'robust underpinning' to its Safeguard Mechanism. The document also analyzes WTO discussions from 2020 to 2024, noting a transition from general concerns about protectionism and WTO compliance toward specific discussions on cooperation and interoperability.

The report provides a detailed analysis of the implementation of Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms (CBAMs) in the EU, UK, and Australia. It examines the transition from free allocations to border adjustments in the EU, the UK's planned 2027 launch, and Australia's ongoing carbon leakage review. Additionally, it tracks the evolution of multilateral discussions at the WTO, noting a shift from general concerns about protectionism toward specific technical cooperation and interoperability.

The report provides a comprehensive overview of carbon border adjustment mechanisms (CBAMs) as tools to prevent carbon leakage. It details the operational timelines and design features of the EU and UK mechanisms, analyzes a proposed Australian framework, and tracks legislative efforts in the US, Canada, and Taiwan. Additionally, it examines the evolving nature of CBAM discussions at the WTO, noting a shift from general concern toward specific design cooperation and interoperability.

Carbon Market Watch opposes efforts by politicians in countries like Poland and Czechia to reverse or delay the EU's ETS2 carbon pricing system for buildings and road transport. The organization argues that the ETS2 is critical for achieving a 42% emission reduction in these sectors by 2030 and a 55% net reduction overall by 2050. It highlights that the system includes social protections, such as the €86 billion Social Climate Fund and a €45 per tonne soft price cap, to protect vulnerable populations. The document warns that weakening the system would increase future economic costs, exacerbate the climate crisis, and undermine the EU's energy sovereignty.

The report assesses Japan's second NDC, which targets a 60% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2035 and 73% by 2040 compared to 2013 levels. The authors argue these targets are insufficient compared to the global average required to limit warming to 1.5°C and risk Japan losing market share in the global clean energy transition. Key recommendations include accelerating the deployment of solar and wind power, implementing a more effective carbon pricing mechanism with a binding cap, and establishing a clear roadmap for the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.

The report exposes how Brazil's powerful agribusiness sector uses political capture and greenwashing to avoid climate accountability, specifically by omitting agricultural methane from the country's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and lobbying to weaken environmental protections ahead of COP30.

The report argues that Brazil's agribusiness sector, dominated by giants like JBS, MBRF, and Minerva, exerts systemic control over political and public narratives to avoid climate regulation. It highlights a critical 'blind spot' in Brazil's updated NDC, which omits agricultural methane emissions despite the sector accounting for 75.6% of the country's total methane. The document details how the 'ruralist caucus' (FPA) controls Congress and pushes for controversial methane metrics like GWP* to downplay warming impacts. It also exposes the 'AgriZone' and other industry-led events surrounding COP30 as tools for greenwashing, while noting that structural weaknesses in the Climate Plan, Tax Reform, and Forest Code continue to favour industrial agriculture over sustainable agroecological farming.

The South African EV market is in an early growth phase, with significant investment potential across four key sectors: passenger vehicles, public buses, freight and logistics, and last-mile delivery. While annual passenger EV sales have surpassed 1,000 units for the first time, the market is currently dominated by luxury models. Growth is supported by innovative financing like Electric-Vehicle-as-a-Service (EVaaS), rising fuel costs, and corporate ESG targets. However, adoption is hindered by high import duties, a lack of affordable models, and electricity grid constraints. The government is introducing manufacturing incentives in 2026 to stimulate local production.

The document examines the socio-economic challenges of the energy transition in South Africa and Brazil, focusing on the gap between decarbonisation goals and the actual reskilling of vulnerable workforces. In South Africa, the transition is complicated by a heavy reliance on coal for electricity and high unemployment, while Brazil faces challenges in balancing its clean energy mix with high emissions from agriculture and deforestation. Both nations struggle with structural inequality and the need for robust social protection systems to ensure that the shift to green industries does not exacerbate existing poverty or exclude informal workers.

The paper analyzes how South Africa and Brazil utilize climate financing to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, highlighting the differences between South Africa's coal-dominant economy and Brazil's land-use-driven emissions. It evaluates national mechanisms such as South Africa's carbon tax and Brazil's proposed Emissions Trading Scheme, while advocating for the reform of multilateral development banks to lower the cost of capital for the Global South. The author emphasizes the importance of green taxonomies and central bank risk management in mobilizing private investment and ensuring financial stability during the energy transition.

Kazakhstan's NDC 3.0 sets a target to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 17% below 1990 levels by 2035 unconditionally, and up to 25% with international support. The plan aligns with a long-term goal of carbon neutrality by 2060 and emphasizes a transition from coal-dependency toward renewable energy, nuclear power, and energy efficiency. The document details sectoral mitigation measures, adaptation strategies for water and agriculture, and a framework for addressing loss and damage. Implementation is supported by a revitalized Emissions Trading System (ETS) and a proposed Carbon Fund, with total indicative investment needs for 2026–2035 estimated at USD 175.6 billion.

The document outlines a process for conducting climate scenario analysis on investment portfolios using a static approach. It employs NGFS scenarios to model the financial impact on sovereign bonds (Colombia and USA) and specific industrial sectors (oil, gas, energy, and cement) from 2025 to 2050. The analysis demonstrates that ambitious climate policies generally decrease the valuation of carbon-intensive sectors like oil and cement due to lower demand and carbon taxes, while benefiting the energy sector. It also shows that orderly transitions tend to lower the risk perception and yields of Colombian sovereign bonds compared to disorderly or delayed scenarios.

Brazil possesses a significant carbon competitiveness advantage due to its renewable-heavy electricity grid, but faces substantial risks from incoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms (CBAMs) and the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). While 78% of its exports go to net zero-aligned markets, structural contradictions—such as continued fossil fuel exploration and the 'Devastation Bill'—threaten its climate credibility. The economy is heavily dependent on China, and recent unilateral tariffs from the US have introduced significant geopolitical volatility.

The document describes Canada's dual-track carbon pricing approach, distinguishing between consumer carbon taxes and industrial systems for large emitters. It details two primary industrial models—emissions-intensity based systems and cap-and-trade systems—and compares their application across different Canadian jurisdictions, highlighting the specific frameworks used in Alberta, Quebec, and the federal backstop system.

Canada employs a dual carbon pricing approach consisting of a consumer carbon price and an industrial carbon price for large emitters. To prevent carbon leakage and protect trade-exposed industries, Canada utilizes large-emitter trading systems (LETS), which primarily take the form of intensity-based systems or cap-and-trade. There are nine LETS across the country, including the federal output-based pricing system (OBPS) and Alberta's Technology Innovation and Emissions Reduction (TIER) Regulation, the latter being the largest due to Alberta's share of industrial emissions. Quebec operates the only cap-and-trade system in Canada, which is integrated with the Western Climate Initiative. The Northwest Territories uses a unique fuel levy with rebates rather than a trading system.

Carbon Market Watch argues that the EU's net carbon sink is declining rapidly and that the current LULUCF Regulation contains loopholes, such as offsetting flexibility and reliance on forest biomass, that undermine climate goals. The organization recommends removing offsetting mechanisms, preventing double counting between national inventories and corporate claims under the Carbon Removal Certification Framework (CRCF), limiting forest harvesting for bioenergy, and strengthening synergies between LULUCF targets and the Common Agriculture Policy (CAP) and Nature Restoration Law.

The document examines the role of Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms (CBAMs) in preventing carbon leakage and reducing emissions, with a primary focus on the EU CBAM. It argues that while the EU CBAM aims to promote global decarbonisation, it may only slightly reduce overall emissions while imposing significant economic burdens on developing nations, potentially costing them billions in income. The briefing highlights a growing, uncoordinated global trend of countries introducing their own carbon tariffs, which risks fragmenting trade and creating high compliance costs for small producers. It concludes that international cooperation, aligned with UNFCCC principles and supported by climate finance, is essential to ensure these mechanisms support global climate goals without unfairly penalising vulnerable economies.

The document assesses the effectiveness of the EU ETS and CORSIA in addressing aviation emissions, finding that both schemes fail to cover non-CO2 effects and that CORSIA's reliance on low-quality offsets and a high baseline limits its climate impact. It recommends extending the EU ETS to all flights departing from the European Economic Area (EEA) by 2027.

The report finds a substantial divergence in ambition between the EU ETS and CORSIA. While the EU ETS is moving toward 100% auctioning of allowances by 2026 and high carbon prices, CORSIA relies on offsetting emissions above a baseline, resulting in significantly lower emissions coverage and a much weaker price signal. The EU may expand the EU ETS to extra-EEA flights by 2027 if CORSIA is deemed insufficient to meet climate goals.