2025 Nationally determined contribution of the Republic of Kazakhstan to the global response to climate change until 2035

The Republic of Kazakhstan's Third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0) outlines a comprehensive climate strategy for 2026–2035, aligning with its long-term goal of carbon neutrality by 2060. The document sets economy-wide emission reduction targets, details sectoral mitigation and adaptation measures, and establishes a framework for loss and damage and climate finance mobilization.

• Kazakhstan has set a target to reduce economy-wide net greenhouse gas emissions by 17% below 1990 levels by 2035 on an unconditional basis, with a conditional target of up to 25% reduction if international support in finance, technology transfer, and capacity building is provided.
• The unconditional mitigation pathway aims for net emissions of approximately 320 MtCO₂e by 2035, while the conditional pathway targets approximately 288 MtCO₂e by 2035. Under a Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario, emissions are projected to rise to roughly 421 MtCO₂-equivalent by 2035.
• To achieve its targets, Kazakhstan plans to increase the share of electricity generation from low-carbon sources (including renewables, nuclear, hydropower, and gas with CO₂ capture) to at least 35% by 2035, with renewable energy specifically growing to 20% by 2035.
• Indicative investment needs for NDC implementation between 2026 and 2035 are estimated at USD 175.6 billion (USD 128.5 billion for mitigation and USD 47 billion for adaptation), representing roughly 5.5% of current annual GDP. If only additional costs above BAU are counted, the need is approximately USD 71.8 billion.
• Kazakhstan is strengthening its Emissions Trading System (ETS), which currently covers 212 large installations and approximately 42.9% of national CO₂ emissions. The national carbon budget for these sectors is being reduced by 3.41% annually through 2030.
• The document identifies significant climate-induced risks, including severe spring floods in 2024 that displaced over 100,000 people and caused USD 450 million in losses. Future projections suggest high-hazard flood risks may triple and long-duration heatwaves could increase six-fold by 2100 under an intermediate emissions scenario.
• Adaptation priorities include increasing water storage capacity to 2.65 billion m³ by 2028, reducing irrigation losses from 50% to 35%, and restoring 700,000 hectares of land through afforestation and reforestation.
• Kazakhstan is implementing a 'just transition' framework for coal-dependent regions, focusing on labor market assessments, worker re-training, and economic diversification to ensure social stability as fossil fuel use declines.
• The country is establishing a Country Platform for Climate Finance Mobilization to coordinate the ETS, Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, a new Carbon Fund, and enterprise transition plans.
• Kazakhstan intends to use Article 6 cooperative approaches to pilot advanced technologies such as low-carbon hydrogen, carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), and Power-to-X systems through international partnerships.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2025). 2025 Nationally determined contribution of the Republic of Kazakhstan to the global response to climate change until 2035. https://cdn.leap.sei.org/pubattachments/5188.pdf

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. 2025 Nationally determined contribution of the Republic of Kazakhstan to the global response to climate change until 2035. 2025. https://cdn.leap.sei.org/pubattachments/5188.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=2025 Nationally determined contribution of the Republic of Kazakhstan to the global response to climate change until 2035 |date=2025 |url=https://cdn.leap.sei.org/pubattachments/5188.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute20252025, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{2025 Nationally determined contribution of the Republic of Kazakhstan to the global response to climate change until 2035}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2025}, url = {https://cdn.leap.sei.org/pubattachments/5188.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }