2025 Nationally determined contribution of the Republic of Kazakhstan to the global response to climate change until 2035

Kazakhstan's NDC 3.0 sets a target to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 17% below 1990 levels by 2035 unconditionally, and up to 25% with international support. The plan aligns with a long-term goal of carbon neutrality by 2060 and emphasizes a transition from coal-dependency toward renewable energy, nuclear power, and energy efficiency. The document details sectoral mitigation measures, adaptation strategies for water and agriculture, and a framework for addressing loss and damage. Implementation is supported by a revitalized Emissions Trading System (ETS) and a proposed Carbon Fund, with total indicative investment needs for 2026–2035 estimated at USD 175.6 billion.

• Kazakhstan has established a dual mitigation target for 2035: an unconditional reduction of net greenhouse gas emissions by 17% below 1990 levels, and a conditional target of up to 25% reduction depending on international finance, technology transfer, and capacity building.
• The country aims to significantly shift its electricity generation mix by 2035, targeting at least 35% from low-carbon sources—including renewables, nuclear, and hydropower—under the unconditional pathway, and up to 73% under the conditional pathway.
• Indicative investment needs for the 2026–2035 period are estimated at USD 175.6 billion, comprising USD 128.5 billion for mitigation and USD 47 billion for adaptation, representing approximately 5.5% of current annual GDP.
• Kazakhstan is utilizing a market-based approach to decarbonization through its Emissions Trading System (ETS), which covers 212 large installations and approximately 42.9% of national CO₂ emissions, with a carbon budget reducing by 3.41% annually through 2030.
• Adaptation priorities focus heavily on water and agriculture due to vulnerabilities to floods and droughts; specific targets include increasing water storage capacity to 2.65 billion m³ by 2028 and restoring 700,000 hectares of land through afforestation and reforestation.
• The government recognizes significant economic losses from climate disasters, noting that between 2020 and 2024, damages averaged 0.24% of GDP annually, with severe spring floods in 2024 alone causing losses of approximately USD 450 million.
• To facilitate climate finance, Kazakhstan plans to establish a Country Platform for Climate Finance Mobilization and a Carbon Fund to pool revenues from ETS auctions and Article 6 transactions.
• The transition strategy includes a 'just transition' framework to support coal-dependent regions through labor market assessments, worker re-training, and regional economic diversification.
• Kazakhstan intends to use Article 6 of the Paris Agreement to pilot advanced technologies such as low-carbon hydrogen, carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), and Power-to-X systems.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2025). 2025 Nationally determined contribution of the Republic of Kazakhstan to the global response to climate change until 2035. https://cdn.leap.sei.org/pubattachments/5188.pdf

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. 2025 Nationally determined contribution of the Republic of Kazakhstan to the global response to climate change until 2035. 2025. https://cdn.leap.sei.org/pubattachments/5188.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=2025 Nationally determined contribution of the Republic of Kazakhstan to the global response to climate change until 2035 |date=2025 |url=https://cdn.leap.sei.org/pubattachments/5188.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute20252025, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{2025 Nationally determined contribution of the Republic of Kazakhstan to the global response to climate change until 2035}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2025}, url = {https://cdn.leap.sei.org/pubattachments/5188.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }