ELECTRIC VEHICLES Market Intelligence Report 2025

The 2025 Electric Vehicles Market Intelligence Report by GreenCape identifies four primary investment opportunities in South Africa's EV sector: passenger vehicles, buses, freight and logistics, and last-mile delivery. While the market is growing—marked by the first time annual passenger EV sales exceeded 1,000 units—it faces significant barriers including high import duties, regulatory uncertainty, and electricity grid constraints. The report highlights a shift toward innovative financing like Electric-Vehicle-as-a-Service (EVaaS) and the introduction of manufacturing tax incentives effective March 2026 to stimulate local production.

• The South African EV market is divided into four key investment sectors with varying growth potentials by 2030: electric passenger vehicles (projected 21,900 vehicles, R13.9 billion), electric buses (420 vehicles, R2.9 billion), electrification of freight and logistics (828 vehicles, R1.18 billion), and electrification of last-mile delivery (17,900 vehicles, R1.2 billion).
• Passenger EV adoption is currently limited by affordability, as most vehicles are luxury purchases priced at R800,000 or higher, while the majority of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles are sold between R200,000 and R400,000. However, new models priced below R400,000 are expected to enter the market in 2024 and 2025.
• Significant progress has been made in the electric bus sector, including the procurement of 120 electric commuter buses by Golden Arrow Bus Services (GABS) and 30 low-floor electric BRT buses for the City of Cape Town's MyCiTi fleet.
• The electrification of freight and last-mile delivery is being driven by the rise of e-commerce and corporate ESG targets. Innovative financing models, specifically Electric-Vehicle-as-a-Service (EVaaS), are being used to lower the high upfront cost barrier for two- and three-wheelers and light commercial vehicles.
• To encourage local EV production, the Taxation Law Amendment Act (TLAA) 2024 introduces a manufacturing incentive starting in March 2026, allowing manufacturers to deduct 150% of the cost of investments in battery electric and hydrogen-powered vehicle assets from their taxable income.
• Electricity supply and grid capacity are critical barriers; for example, GABS estimates it would need 80MW to 100MW of renewable energy to fully electrify its 1,100 diesel bus fleet. This necessitates significant grid upgrades at depots and distribution centres.
• South Africa's public charging infrastructure is expanding, with over 500 public stations. The current ratio of EVs to public charging stations is 1:7, which exceeds the International Energy Agency's global best practice recommendation of 1:10.

APA

Terblanche, U., Magoda, N., Khoza, S., Radmore, J., Reddy, P., Pienaar, C., & Fordyce, N. (2025). ELECTRIC VEHICLES Market Intelligence Report 2025. GreenCape. https://greencape.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Electric-vehicles-2025.pdf

Chicago

Terblanche, Ulrich, Nyawasedza Magoda, Sithobile Khoza, Jack Radmore, Prian Reddy, Cilnette Pienaar, and Nicholas Fordyce. ELECTRIC VEHICLES Market Intelligence Report 2025. GreenCape, 2025. https://greencape.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Electric-vehicles-2025.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{terblanche2025electric, author = {Terblanche, Ulrich and Magoda, Nyawasedza and Khoza, Sithobile and Radmore, Jack and Reddy, Prian and Pienaar, Cilnette and Fordyce, Nicholas}, title = {{ELECTRIC VEHICLES Market Intelligence Report 2025}}, institution = {GreenCape}, year = {2025}, url = {https://greencape.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Electric-vehicles-2025.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }