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Delivering the Cyprus Peace Dividend
The report argues that a settlement of the Cyprus problem would significantly boost the island's economy by creating economies of scale and opening access to the EU and Turkish markets. Using sectoral and total factor productivity (TFP) forecasting, the authors estimate that a solution could increase overall GDP by €11 billion to €17.4 billion over 20 years and raise GDP per capita by €6,800 to €11,000. Key growth sectors include wholesale and retail trade, tourism, construction, and professional services. The report also provides a framework for financing property compensation and emphasizes that closing the gender gap and establishing inclusive institutions are critical for maximizing the peace dividend.
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Document type: Report
Επιτυγχάνοντας το Μέρισμα της Ειρήνης στην Κύπρο
The report argues that a solution to the Cyprus problem would significantly boost the island's economy by expanding market access, increasing productivity, and attracting investment. Using sectoral and total factor productivity (TFP) methodologies, the authors project that a settlement could increase the total GDP by between €11 billion and €17.4 billion over 20 years compared to the status quo. Key growth drivers include tourism, construction, shipping, and professional services. The report also emphasizes that maximizing this dividend requires strong inclusive institutions, technical transition periods, and a concerted effort to close the gender gap in the workforce, particularly in the Turkish Cypriot community. Additionally, it assesses the financial viability of property restitution, suggesting that a significant portion of compensation costs could be covered by the increased state revenues generated by the peace dividend.
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Document type: Report
Kıbrıs’ta Barışın Sağlayacağı Getirileri Elde Etmek
The report argues that a political solution to the Cyprus problem would significantly boost the island's economy by creating a unified market, improving productivity, and opening access to the EU and Turkish markets. Using sectoral and Total Factor Productivity (TFP) methodologies, the authors estimate that a solution could increase the total GDP by between 11 billion and 17.4 billion Euros by 2040 compared to the status quo. Key growth drivers include tourism, construction, shipping, and professional services, with wholesale and retail trade expected to benefit most from chain effects. The report also emphasizes that maximizing this dividend requires strong institutions, gender equality, and a sustainable financing model for property compensation.
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Document type: Report
Harnessing the 4IR in SADC: Roles for Policymakers
The document argues that while SADC countries face significant digital divides and infrastructure gaps, adopting 4IR technologies is essential for economic growth. It identifies key constraints as a lack of ICT infrastructure, policy agility, and digital skills, suggesting that spectrum and infrastructure sharing are vital for improving affordability and coverage.
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Document type: Briefing
THE COST OF AUSTERITY: LESSONS FOR SOUTH AFRICA
The report argues that austerity—defined as fiscal policy aimed at solving debt and growth problems through spending cuts and regressive taxes—leads to economic deterioration, rising unemployment, and increased inequality. It highlights that South Africa is deepening its implementation of austerity despite moderate debt levels compared to international norms. The author contends that these policies undermine constitutionally enshrined rights to health and education and proposes a shift toward a stimulus-based fiscal plan focused on progressive taxation and structural transformation.
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Document type: Research paper
Empirical assessments of the development impacts of migration
The document examines how 'migration' and 'development' are defined and measured in quantitative research, highlighting a gap in evidence regarding migration aspirations, failed attempts, and involuntary immobility. It discusses the challenges of establishing causal links due to endogeneity—specifically reverse causality, self-selection, and omitted variables—and evaluates experimental and non-experimental methods to address these biases. The paper advocates for a holistic, multi-dimensional approach to development that moves beyond economic metrics to include social, institutional, and environmental outcomes.
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Document type: Research paper
Great Zimbabwe
The report analyzes Zimbabwe's trajectory to 2040, warning that the 'Current Path' of state-centric governance and economic instability will lead to persistent poverty and food insecurity. It contrasts this with the 'Great Zimbabwe' scenario, where pro-growth policies, transferable land titles, and expanded irrigation could significantly boost GDP and reduce undernourishment. Conversely, the 'Things Fall Apart' scenario predicts a decline into internal conflict and severe humanitarian deterioration if political accountability is not established. Key recommendations emphasize rehabilitating irrigation, improving democratic accountability, and partnering with the IMF to stabilize the economy.
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Document type: Report
Who is willing to pay more for renewable energy?
Based on two national surveys conducted between 2018 and 2019, the report finds that 47% of Americans are willing to pay more for renewable energy, with an overall average additional payment of $16.25 per month. Willingness to pay is driven by perceptions of health risks from fossil fuels, economic benefits of renewables, and political ideology, rather than income levels.
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Document type: Report
Peace & Security Council Report
The report examines the potential of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to drive long-term GDP growth and poverty reduction by 2050, while noting that immediate gains will come from manufacturing and technology leapfrogging. It details the AU's suspension of Sudan following the military junta's crackdown on protestors and warns of risks including civil war and external influence from Gulf powers. The document highlights a democratic setback in Africa, where incumbents use constitutional amendments and electoral law changes to maintain power, citing Benin as a key example. It reviews AU peace support operations (PSOs) in Somalia and Darfur, arguing that military action must be paired with political solutions and questioning the neutrality of deploying neighbouring states. Finally, it discusses the AU-UN partnership, emphasizing the need for UN Security Council reform and sustainable financing for AU-led operations.
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Document type: Report
Engaging the Private Sector in National Adaptation Planning Processes
The document argues that private sector engagement is essential for successful National Adaptation Planning (NAP) because businesses drive economic growth and provide the jobs, products, and financing necessary for climate resilience. It defines private sector engagement as the meaningful involvement of diverse actors in the planning, implementation, and monitoring of NAPs, while maintaining that governments remain the primary owners of the process.
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Document type: Report
energy in the american mind
The report finds broad bipartisan support for transitioning to 100% clean, renewable energy by 2050, with 85% of registered voters supporting such a requirement for utilities. While most Americans view clean energy positively and believe it will boost economic growth, there is a significant gap in awareness and access to purchasing 100% clean electricity. Support for renewable energy research and tax rebates for energy-efficient vehicles has increased between 2013 and 2018, particularly among conservative Republicans.
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Document type: Report
El Convenio sobre la Diversidad Biológica debe conducirnos a un mundo que viva dentro de los límites planetarios
The document outlines requirements for the post-2020 biodiversity goals following the Aichi Biodiversity Targets. It advocates for the inclusion of Indigenous Peoples, local communities, women, and youth in the decision-making process. The authors argue that unlimited economic growth is incompatible with environmental preservation and call for the removal of corporate control over public policy and financial instruments. Furthermore, the statement rejects the use of biodiversity offsets and single biodiversity metrics, suggesting that goals must include qualitative aspects and divestment from destructive projects.
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Document type: Statement
La convention sur la diversité biologique doit nous guider vers un monde qui tienne compte des limites de la planète
The document calls for a post-2020 biodiversity framework that prioritizes planetary boundaries over economic growth and incorporates the leadership of indigenous peoples and local communities. It explicitly rejects the 'voluntary commitments' model used in the Paris Agreement and argues against biodiversity offsets, claiming they are ineffective due to the complexity of ecosystems.
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Document type: Statement
South Africa quietly building the Youth Employment Service (YES) initiative
The Youth Employment Service (YES) is a private sector-led initiative launched in March 2018 to combat South Africa's youth unemployment crisis, which reached 39% for those aged 15-34 in Q2 2018. The programme aims to create 330,000 jobs annually, targeting one million opportunities over three years by providing inexperienced youth with one year of work experience to increase their marketability. To incentivise private sector participation, the Department of Trade and Industry integrated YES into the broad-based black economic empowerment (B-BBEE) measurement codes on 28 August 2018, allowing participating businesses to improve their B-BBEE scorecards by up to two levels. However, the document notes that the initiative's success is threatened by a technical recession, a poor-quality education system (ranked 137th out of 139 by the World Economic Forum in 2016), and the need to align skills with the 4th Industrial Revolution.
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Document type: Research paper
Africa’s demographic challenge is a fact
The author contends that Africa's high fertility rates, particularly in countries like Tanzania, hinder economic growth by maintaining a high ratio of dependents to working-age people. By comparing Africa to the 'Asian Tiger' economies and the US, the text illustrates how a higher ratio of working-age persons per dependent drives income growth. The document suggests that improving water, sanitation, education, and contraceptive access could lead to a significantly larger economy and the elimination of poverty by 2063.
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Document type: Statement
Getting to Africa’s demographic dividend
The report argues that most low- and lower-middle-income African states are decades away from a demographic dividend due to high youth dependency ratios and slow demographic transitions. While the global working-age to dependent ratio peaked in 2012, Africa's is forecast to peak shortly after 2070. The author suggests that aggressive roll-out of modern contraception, eliminating gender inequality in education, and improving basic infrastructure could advance this dividend. A modelled 'Demographic Dividend' scenario suggests that by 2063, Africa could have 418 million fewer people but a GDP in purchasing power terms US$1.7 trillion larger than under the current trajectory, significantly reducing extreme poverty and narrowing the income gap with the rest of the world.
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Document type: Report
BRICS Gender Forum: Putting Women at the Centre of Development
The South African Institute of International Affairs argues that BRICS nations must move beyond treating women's issues as a separate silo and instead integrate gender inclusivity into core development goals. The text highlights significant wage gaps in Brazil and South Africa and notes that while South Africa leads the bloc in gender parity rankings, other members lag behind. It specifically calls for gender-sensitive approaches to automation in the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the inclusion of women in the new BRICS peacekeeping working group to increase the longevity of peace initiatives, and the recognition of women's roles as primary caregivers in the success of vaccine dissemination campaigns.
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Document type: Statement
Cleaner Cars Are Good for Jobs
The document presents an economic analysis by Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. showing that clean car standards drive job creation and GDP growth through automotive industry investments and increased consumer spending. It estimates that by 2035, these standards could add over 250,000 jobs and $16 billion to the GDP, while saving consumers $90 billion in annual fuel costs. The text also critiques a previous Indiana University study, noting that subsequent corrections to that study shifted its findings from a net GDP loss to a net gain.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Three Keys to a New South Africa
The author identifies three critical areas for reform under President Cyril Ramaphosa's leadership: restoring the rule of law to combat state capture, reforming the management of state-owned enterprises to spur economic growth, and investing in education to address a 39% youth unemployment rate. The text highlights the potential of South Africa's chrome and manganese deposits for the 'Fourth Industrial Revolution' and suggests that domestic stability will allow the country to reassert its regional influence and leverage memberships in groups like BRICS.
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Document type: Research paper
Tracking Progress on SDG 8
The document evaluates the performance of Canadian cities against SDG 8, focusing on GDP per capita, labour productivity, median income, unemployment, and youth unemployment. While GDP and median incomes have generally risen, the report highlights persistent gender pay gaps and regional disparities in unemployment, particularly in Prairie cities.
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Document type: Briefing