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The document examines how the global shift toward low-carbon energy, driven by the Paris Agreement, creates a risk of stranded assets for fossil fuel-dependent African nations. While this transition threatens export revenues and economic stability, it offers opportunities through increased demand for critical minerals like cobalt and copper. The author argues for a 'just transition' that avoids premature deindustrialisation and leverages fossil fuel revenues for economic diversification and green industrialisation.

The document examines the technological, economic, and environmental aspects of transitioning the U.S. transportation sector to electric vehicles. It highlights the role of falling battery costs, the necessity of expanding charging infrastructure, and the potential for significant public health improvements, particularly in marginalized communities. It also addresses challenges related to the sourcing of critical minerals like lithium and cobalt and the impact of regional climates on vehicle range.

The document argues that Zimbabwe can overcome high transport costs and fuel shortages by transitioning to electric vehicles (EVs) and micromobility. It highlights the potential for a 'campus model' of electrification in the mining sector, the use of used EV imports to lower entry barriers, and the opportunity to leverage Zimbabwe's rich deposits of battery minerals like lithium and nickel to move from mineral export to local battery manufacturing.

The transition to low-carbon technologies is highly mineral-intensive, requiring an estimated 3 billion tons of minerals and metals to achieve a below 2°C future. This demand increases the risk of deforestation and fragmentation of intact forest landscapes (IFLs), particularly in the Amazon and Congo Basin. In the Amazon, mining contributes up to 9% of IFL area loss, while in the Congo Basin, the demand for cobalt for batteries drives exploration in high-forest-cover areas. Analysis shows a gap in corporate and government governance, with only a minority of assessed companies adopting specific forest-related commitments and 78% of state and regional governments lacking forest management plans that directly address mining-related deforestation.

The document examines the critical materials required for battery electric vehicles (BEVs), highlighting the risks associated with concentrated mineral reserves and the environmental and human rights impacts of mining. It argues that while BEVs significantly reduce life cycle global warming emissions compared to gasoline vehicles, scaling their production requires a transition toward a circular economy. The author emphasizes that widespread recycling could meet 30% to 40% of the US material demand for passenger BEVs by 2035. The text identifies significant barriers to this transition, including a lack of recycling infrastructure—with fewer than a dozen global facilities—and a lack of comprehensive regulatory frameworks. It recommends policy actions such as setting recycled content targets, standardizing battery labeling, and enforcing international labor and environmental standards for mining.

The briefing argues that while climate change is unlikely to be the primary ideological driver for terrorist groups, it acts as a risk multiplier. It identifies three channels of impact: the creation of recruitment opportunities due to food and livelihood insecurity; the erosion of state legitimacy when governments fail to respond effectively to climate-induced disasters; and the security instabilities caused by the global energy transition, which may strand assets in hydrocarbon-exporting states and increase the value of critical minerals in fragile regions.

The report argues that climate change is a national security issue for Canada, affecting its Arctic sovereignty, domestic disaster resilience, and international stability. It recommends establishing a Climate Security Task Force to coordinate a cross-agency response, adapting military infrastructure to sea-level rise and permafrost thaw, and leveraging multilateral institutions to manage global climate-driven fragility.

The South African EV ecosystem is currently nascent and dominated by private sector activity, with limited local commercial production of battery cells and a reliance on imported components. While the country possesses significant reserves of battery minerals like manganese, it lacks extensive beneficiation capacity. The automotive sector, a major GDP contributor, is pivoting toward EVs to maintain competitiveness in export markets that are phasing out internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Key barriers to adoption include high upfront costs, inadequate charging infrastructure, and a chronic shortage of technical skills. The report recommends that the City of Cape Town intervene through targeted incentives, procurement of EV fleets, and the development of charging infrastructure and skills training to stimulate a viable local value chain.

The report highlights the potential for e-mobility, specifically low-speed electric vehicles (LSEVs) and micromobility, to provide affordable transport in the SADC region. It identifies infrastructure gaps and a lack of political will as primary barriers, while suggesting that the region's strategic mineral reserves could provide global bargaining power. The author advocates for the use of existing frameworks like the SADC RISDP 2020–30 and the Green Economy Strategy to accelerate the transition and recommends that South Africa join the IEA's Electric Vehicles Initiative.

The report argues that traditional mining taxation, heavily reliant on corporate income tax and royalties, is insufficient for developing countries due to profit shifting and outdated paradigms. It highlights new pressures, including the transition to low-carbon minerals, disruptive automation technologies that reduce local employment and payroll taxes, and the financial burdens of climate change. The document proposes a three-step roadmap—understanding current roles, crowdsourcing innovative ideas, and researching these options—to create a handbook of improved mining revenue collection strategies.

The guide argues that traditional mining tax regimes, primarily based on corporate income tax and royalties, are outdated and vulnerable to profit shifting. It highlights how the energy transition, disruptive technologies like AI and automation, and climate change are altering the economic landscape of the extractive sector. The document proposes a three-step dialogue process involving governments, industry, and civil society to identify innovative fiscal reforms that ensure sustainable and equitable revenue collection for resource-rich developing nations.

The report argues that traditional mining tax regimes, primarily based on corporate income tax and royalties, are outdated and often fail to generate expected revenues due to aggressive tax planning by multinationals and overly generous incentives. It highlights how the transition to a low-carbon economy, the rise of automation and AI in mining, and the pressures of climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic necessitate a reconsideration of how states tax mineral resources. The document proposes a three-step dialogue process involving governments, industry, and civil society to develop a manual of innovative fiscal ideas that ensure equitable and sustainable returns from mining.

The document examines how SADC member states can leverage their vast reserves of EV-related minerals and metals (EVMM) to move from raw material export to regional beneficiation. It highlights the need for a public-private EVMM working group and coalition to coordinate value chains, formalise artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM), and implement a circular economy approach to mining waste. The brief emphasizes that a regional 'green deal' and the finalisation of the Africa Mining Vision (AMV) are essential for a just transition to a low-carbon economy.

The production of industrial metals accounts for over 10% of global greenhouse gas emissions, a figure likely to rise as declining ore grades increase the energy required for extraction. Using copper as a flagship example, the report demonstrates that mining operations can achieve 45% renewable electricity while improving financial performance and resilience. RMI's modeling across 25 sites in five countries shows that a 'one-size-fits-most' approach—combining large-scale solar with other renewable technologies or utility buyback programs—can maintain internal rates of return (IRR) while increasing net present value (NPV). The report identifies market, structural, organizational, and behavioral barriers to adoption and suggests financing mechanisms like Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) to mitigate high upfront capital costs. To reach net-zero emissions by 2050, the report advocates for further electrification, energy productivity reforms, and new metallurgical processes.

The document argues that while a low-carbon future requires increased mining of specific minerals, South Africa must shift away from coal dependence toward a 'green industrialisation' strategy. It highlights how Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) technologies can make mining less invasive and create new value chains in renewable energy components, while warning that automation and the abandonment of fossil fuels will necessitate large-scale worker reskilling to avoid social upheaval.

This briefing examines the inequitable resource interdependency between Europe and Africa in the extractive sector. It argues that a symbiotic relationship can be achieved by implementing 'extractive justice'—incorporating procedural, distributive, and recognitional justice—into legal and policy frameworks to address wealth imbalances and governance deficits.

The policy brief examines the 'resource curse' in Africa, where mineral abundance often correlates with under-development due to weak institutional quality. It argues that the EU's Raw Materials Initiative (RMI) must better align with the African Mining Vision (AMV) to ensure mining catalyzes long-term development rather than remaining purely extractive. The author highlights the risks of 'Dutch Disease' and the prevalence of illicit financial flows (IFFs), noting that transparency alone is insufficient for accountability. The brief concludes that EU private sector actors and policymakers must move beyond corporate social responsibility to become 'systems shapers' who address political economy realities and reduce power asymmetries to achieve extractive justice.

The report argues that while cobalt and lithium are critical for the low-carbon transition, their current recycling rates are low—specifically less than 5% for lithium-ion batteries. It identifies barriers across the primary supply chain (such as conflict and child labour in the DRC), the recycling chain (inefficient collection and technical challenges), and regulatory environments (inapt definitions and ambiguous liability). The authors recommend enhancing eco-design, raising consumer awareness to reduce 'hibernation' of electronics, and updating regulatory frameworks to include clear definitions and meaningful recycling targets to support the UN Sustainable Development Goals and the circular economy.

The document examines the intersection of mining, governance, and the Fourth Industrial Revolution in Africa. It argues that while the global energy transition will double demand for minerals like copper, lithium, and cobalt, African countries must strengthen institutions to ensure these resources drive broad-based industrialisation rather than remaining as disconnected enclaves. The author analyzes specific governance failures and opportunities in South Africa, Guinea, Botswana, and Tanzania, emphasizing the need for stable legal frameworks, the protection of ecological integrity, and the formalisation of artisanal mining. It concludes that leapfrogging traditional development trajectories via renewable energy and smart technology is possible if governments prioritize inclusive institutions over the interests of politically connected elites.

The South African mining sector is highly vulnerable to job losses driven by biophysical climate impacts and international trade responses, with coal, gold, and platinum being the most at risk. While biophysical impacts could lead to 14,700 job losses across all sectors, international trade responses could cause between 9,400 and 52,800 losses by 2030. The report highlights that coal and lignite mining is particularly vulnerable, with expected job losses of approximately 6% by 2030. However, the transition to a low-carbon economy creates opportunities for job growth in the extraction of minerals required for clean energy technologies, such as manganese and platinum group metals. To manage this transition, the report recommends a two-pronged approach to inventory and match transferable skills to non-mining sectors and new mining sub-sectors.