Mining for a Circular Economy in the Age of the Fourth Industrial Revolution: The Case of South Africa

The document argues that while a low-carbon future requires increased mining of specific minerals, South Africa must shift away from coal dependence toward a 'green industrialisation' strategy. It highlights how Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) technologies can make mining less invasive and create new value chains in renewable energy components, while warning that automation and the abandonment of fossil fuels will necessitate large-scale worker reskilling to avoid social upheaval.

• Transitioning to a low-carbon future will increase the global demand for specific minerals and metals, including copper, lithium, cobalt, platinum, chrome, and manganese, to support renewable energy, robotics, and electric vehicles.
• South Africa is well-positioned for this transition as it mines five of the 16 minerals used in solar panels (iron ore, lead, phosphate rock, silica, and titanium oxide) and possesses substantial chrome and manganese deposits for wind turbines.
• The Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) enables 'green mining' through technologies such as autonomous aerial vehicles for exploration, robotics for hazardous environments, and AI-driven continuous mining that replaces blasting.
• South Africa faces a high risk of stranded assets in its coal sector, as the cost of electricity from new mega coal plants like Medupi and Kusile (105c/kWh to 119c/kWh) is nearly double the cost of wind (62c/kWh) and solar (79c/kWh) from the latest REIPPP bidding round.
• Technological disruption and the transition away from fossil fuels threaten significant job losses; in South Africa, 41% of work activities are susceptible to automation, and 39% of core skills will be different by 2020.
• To avoid social upheaval, South Africa requires a 'green industrialisation' strategy that includes strategic reskilling of workers, using higher profit margins from new technologies to train lower-skilled workers in AI and machine learning.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2019). Mining for a Circular Economy in the Age of the Fourth Industrial Revolution: The Case of South Africa. https://saiia.org.za/research/mining-for-a-circular-economy-in-the-age-of-the-fourth-industrial-revolution-the-case-of-south-africa/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. Mining for a Circular Economy in the Age of the Fourth Industrial Revolution: The Case of South Africa. 2019. https://saiia.org.za/research/mining-for-a-circular-economy-in-the-age-of-the-fourth-industrial-revolution-the-case-of-south-africa/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=Mining for a Circular Economy in the Age of the Fourth Industrial Revolution: The Case of South Africa |date=11 June 2019 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/mining-for-a-circular-economy-in-the-age-of-the-fourth-industrial-revolution-the-case-of-south-africa/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2019mining, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{Mining for a Circular Economy in the Age of the Fourth Industrial Revolution: The Case of South Africa}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2019}, month = jun, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/mining-for-a-circular-economy-in-the-age-of-the-fourth-industrial-revolution-the-case-of-south-africa/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }