LOOKING BACK TO THE FUTURE: MINING FOR DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA

The document examines the intersection of mining, governance, and the Fourth Industrial Revolution in Africa. It argues that while the global energy transition will double demand for minerals like copper, lithium, and cobalt, African countries must strengthen institutions to ensure these resources drive broad-based industrialisation rather than remaining as disconnected enclaves. The author analyzes specific governance failures and opportunities in South Africa, Guinea, Botswana, and Tanzania, emphasizing the need for stable legal frameworks, the protection of ecological integrity, and the formalisation of artisanal mining. It concludes that leapfrogging traditional development trajectories via renewable energy and smart technology is possible if governments prioritize inclusive institutions over the interests of politically connected elites.

• The global transition toward low-carbon energy and transport systems is expected to significantly increase the demand for specific minerals; a World Bank study suggests the world will need "approximately double the current volume of mined minerals and metals."
• In South Africa, the author argues that the 'first-in first-assessed' (FIFA) system for processing mining licences should be maintained until more geological data is available, as an auction-based system would face high transaction costs and capacity constraints within the Department of Mineral Resources.
• The document highlights the risk of 'stranded assets' for investments in coal and uranium, noting that coal-fired power is now more expensive than various renewable energy sources and that "coal revenues will plummet as divestment from fossil fuels starts to speed up."
• In Tanzania, the formalisation of artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) is deemed urgent to reduce environmental damage, such as mercury contamination of water, but requires updating the 2010 Mining Act to lower bureaucratic barriers to entry.
• The Fourth Industrial Revolution presents a risk of increasing unemployment in the mining sector as automation, such as "driverless trucks and robots," may replace a large proportion of the workforce, including many of the nearly half-a-million employees in South African mining.
• For countries like Botswana facing declining diamond rents, the author recommends prioritising eco-tourism as a sustainable primary revenue generator and investing remaining rents into human and physical capital.

APA

HARVEY, R. (2018). LOOKING BACK TO THE FUTURE: MINING FOR DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Occasional-Paper-283.pdf

Chicago

HARVEY, ROSS. LOOKING BACK TO THE FUTURE: MINING FOR DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2018. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Occasional-Paper-283.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=HARVEY |first1=ROSS |title=LOOKING BACK TO THE FUTURE: MINING FOR DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=June 2018 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Occasional-Paper-283.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{harvey2018looking, author = {HARVEY, ROSS}, title = {{LOOKING BACK TO THE FUTURE: MINING FOR DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2018}, month = jun, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Occasional-Paper-283.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }