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South Africa holds approximately 80% of global Platinum Group Metals (PGMs), which are essential catalysts for PEM electrolysers and fuel cells used in green hydrogen production. While this provides a strategic opportunity for re-industrialisation and decarbonisation, the transition faces severe constraints, including an outdated electricity grid, water scarcity in high-resource areas, and a significant skills gap. The shift also threatens the coal and internal combustion engine automotive sectors, risking large-scale job losses in regions like Mpumalanga and the Eastern Cape. Geopolitically, South Africa must navigate competition between China and Western powers, particularly as the US has withdrawn support for the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP). The paper argues that for the transition to be 'just', the government must integrate mineral beneficiation with social safeguards, regional SADC integration, and comprehensive workforce reskilling.

Carbon Market Watch claims the European Commission is routinely ignoring or bypassing required impact assessments and public consultations for major climate policies. The author asserts that this shift toward 'vibe-based' policymaking, driven by deregulation and industry lobbying, undermines transparency and risks significant economic and environmental damage, citing specific examples such as the 2040 climate target and the EU ETS2 Market Stability Reserve.

The Canadian Climate Institute argues that current federal diagnostic tests for industrial carbon pricing systems primarily measure market liquidity rather than regulatory rigor, leading to 'false positives' where systems appear compliant but fail to provide sufficient investment signals. Based on modeling of 57 scenarios for Alberta's TIER system, the Institute recommends anchoring equivalence to an Effective Marginal Credit Price (EMCP) of $130 per tonne by 2030. It identifies benchmark tightening as the primary driver of rigor, while noting that direct investment tax credits systematically dilute the price signal. The Institute calls for transparent, ongoing performance monitoring and the inclusion of non-negotiable design elements, such as evolving price floors and ceilings, to ensure provincial systems meet national climate goals.

The Canadian Climate Institute argues that current federal benchmark tests for large-emitter trading systems (LETS) create 'false positives' by verifying market liquidity without ensuring the price signals are strong enough to drive decarbonization. Through modelling of 57 scenarios for Alberta's TIER system, the Institute found that 77% of systems passing federal tests failed to meet the $130-per-tonne stringency target. The report recommends anchoring equivalency to the Effective Marginal Credit Price (EMCP) and prioritizing benchmark tightening while limiting dilution mechanisms like direct investment credits.

The policy brief argues that for the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), a Just Transition must be a multi-sectoral regional transformation strategy rather than a narrow focus on fossil fuel phase-out. It introduces a framework based on six guiding principles—social justice, effective governance, inclusive participation, economic resilience, alignment with climate goals, and green financing—to mitigate risks in sectors like energy, tourism, and transport, while leveraging growth opportunities in the blue and orange economies. The author recommends institutionalizing social dialogue, strengthening regional policy coherence, and mobilizing scaled concessional finance to ensure the transition is equitable and supports long-term economic diversification.

The report examines how the green transition is reshaping trade, investment, and geopolitics for Africa. It analyzes the impact of the EU and UK Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms (CBAM), the decarbonisation of maritime and aviation sectors, and the potential for Africa to move from raw mineral extraction to EV battery production. It warns that without strategic policy intervention, clean energy exports and critical mineral demand may reproduce extractive economic patterns, while advocating for a unified continental approach to negotiate fairer terms in international climate-trade frameworks.

The document identifies four primary constraints to South Africa's just transition: a significant finance gap, delivery frictions in project cycles, fragmented skills and employment pathways, and a lack of accountability and legitimacy. It argues that success depends on moving from high-level pledges to 'delivery-grade' finance and coordinated, place-based implementation, particularly in coal-affected regions like Mpumalanga.

The Western Cape presents a total investable renewable energy opportunity of R37.4 billion across approximately 2.35 GW of new capacity by 2030. While severe grid constraints on the Eskom network have limited new connections, the 2025 NERSA approval of a 4% congestion curtailment mechanism is expected to unlock 1,180 MW of wind capacity, attracting R20.1 billion in investment. An additional R14 billion is tied to 926 MW of wind and solar projects currently in the budget quote (BQ) phase. Behind-the-meter (BTM) solar PV and battery energy storage systems (BESS) for businesses represent a resilient R3.3 billion market, driven by rising electricity tariffs and corporate decarbonisation pressures, although projects over 1 MW face high compliance costs. Long-term growth is expected following transmission upgrades on the Cape Corridor scheduled for 2028–2031.

The 2026 Market Intelligence Report for the Western Cape's sustainable agriculture sector highlights a transition toward resource-efficient, technologically enabled production. It identifies biological crop protection and biostimulants as key regenerative agriculture opportunities, with a total addressable market of R79.3530.3 million and R27.3176.6 million respectively. Additionally, it identifies farm management systems as a critical smart farming opportunity to ensure export compliance and operational efficiency, with a total addressable market of R108135 million per year. The sector faces significant trade pressures, including the expiry of AGOA in September 2025 and evolving EU sustainability regulations under the European Green Deal, prompting a strategic pivot toward market diversification in Asia, particularly China, following a landmark stone fruit trade protocol signed in October 2025.

The document examines the evolution of carbon pricing globally and regionally, with a deep dive into Southeast Asian markets. It analyzes the impact of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on regional exports and the progress of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. Specific country updates detail Indonesia's operational ETS, the Philippines' legislative efforts toward a cap-and-invest system, and Viet Nam's pilot phase for a national compliance market.

The document details the global nickel market, highlighting Indonesia's dominance in production and the shifting demand from stainless steel toward electric vehicle batteries. It outlines the technical processing pathways for Class I and Class II nickel, the geopolitical impact of export bans, and the environmental footprints associated with different mining and refining methods.

In 2025, global coal capacity grew by 3.5% while generation fell by 0.6%, a divergence driven primarily by China and India. While new commissioning reached near-record levels of 97.4 GW, coal is increasingly used as 'system insurance' rather than a primary energy source. The global pipeline is narrowing geographically, with only 32 countries proposing or building new plants in 2025, and 95% of all construction concentrated in China and India. Meanwhile, the U.S. and EU saw significant delays in planned retirements, though for different reasons: federal emergency orders in the U.S. and energy security concerns in the EU. Latin America reached 'No New Coal' status in 2025, while South Korea committed to a phaseout by 2040.

The EPA has proposed a significant rollback of the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program (GHGRP), which would remove reporting requirements for 46 of 47 source categories and suspend subpart W reporting until 2034. This proposal threatens the viability of over 270 carbon capture projects and $77.5 billion in capital investment because the 45Q tax credit relies on GHGRP for monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV). Specifically, the loss of subparts PP, RR, and VV would prevent carbon capture and storage (CCS) and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) projects from claiming 45Q credits. For hydrogen projects, the delay of subpart W would reduce the reliability of upstream methane leak rate measurements used in the 45VH2-GREET tool for 45V tax credits, potentially forcing taxpayers to rely on an inaccurate 0.9% national average and increasing legal risks for high performers. Internationally, the rollback could disadvantage U.S. exporters in markets requiring verified data, such as those under the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Domestically, at least ten states, including California and Colorado, have embedded GHGRP into their legal frameworks; removing it would force these states to create costly patchwork substitutes to maintain emissions inventories.

Nepal's textiles and clothing sector, particularly readymade garments and hand-knotted woollen carpets, remains a key export earner despite structural constraints and a decline in manufacturing's share of GDP. While the sector leverages unique craftsmanship and LDC-based preferential market access, it faces high logistics costs, skilled labour shortages, and a 25% higher unit cost compared to competitors like Bangladesh and India. LDC graduation threatens this competitiveness through potential tariff increases and stricter rules of origin. The authors argue that the government should move away from ineffective ad-valorem subsidies and poorly located special economic zones, instead focusing on market intelligence, inter-agency coordination, and productivity improvements to adapt to a changing global trade landscape.

The document argues that Environmental Product Declarations (EPDs) will likely become a widespread requirement for Indian building product manufacturers by 2030. It outlines a 10-to-30-week process for EPD development, involving life-cycle assessments (LCA) and third-party verification, with estimated initial costs between ₹983,000 and ₹1,519,000. EPDs are presented as a tool for gaining competitive advantages in green building certifications (LEED, IGBC, GRIHA), complying with international regulations like the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), and improving operational efficiency through the identification of emissions hotspots.

The document argues that there are no credible pathways to tackle the climate crisis without trade policies aligned with the Paris Agreement. It identifies key areas for cooperation, including the management of climate-trade tensions (such as the EU's CBAM), the acceleration of clean energy transitions, and the decarbonization of industrial sectors like shipping and steel. A central theme is the need for 'climate justice,' ensuring that developing nations are not marginalized by green industrial policies or unilateral trade measures. The report proposes several mechanisms for progress, including the Integrated Forum on Climate Change and Trade (IFCCT) proposed for COP30, the 'greening' of Aid for Trade (AfT), and the development of regional green trade blocs like a potential arrangement within the RCEP. It emphasizes that a just transition requires bridging the gap between the WTO and UNFCCC, harmonizing carbon accounting standards, and increasing climate finance for adaptation in the Global South.

Carbon Market Watch criticizes the EU's proposed 2040 climate target for relying on international carbon credits and including 'flexibilities' that weaken domestic ambition. The author calls for a strict domestic emissions reduction target, the exclusion of credits from the EU ETS, and the prevention of delays to the ETS2 system for buildings and road transport. The document also warns against using natural disturbances in forestry as a justification to lower overall climate targets.

The document examines the tension between Africa's potential as a clean energy leader and the restrictive nature of unilateral trade instruments like the EU's CBAM. While Africa possesses significant renewable energy potential and 30% of global critical mineral reserves, the paper argues that CBAM could reduce collective GDP by 0.91% (approximately USD 25 billion) and limit fiscal space for green R&D. It suggests that African nations leverage their strategic mineral advantages, utilize the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to eliminate 97% of internal tariffs, and push for more structured discussions on trade restrictions within the UNFCCC and WTO.

The document examines how trade tools like border carbon adjustments (BCAs) and deforestation-free regulations are being used to advance climate goals and prevent carbon leakage. It highlights the administrative challenges of BCAs, the risk of excluding smallholders in deforestation-free supply chains, and the potential for these measures to clash with the principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC). The authors argue for greater transparency, support for developing countries, and harmonized standards to ensure the energy transition does not deepen global inequities.

The Just Transition Compass serves as a non-prescriptive guide to move Just Transitions from high-level dialogue to concrete implementation. It defines core principles of distributive, procedural, and restorative justice, identifies systemic barriers to national implementation—such as limited subnational capacity and siloed finance—and analyzes the political tensions within the UNFCCC's Just Transition Work Programme (JTWP). The report advocates for a permanent international coordination mechanism to align fragmented efforts, manage the cross-border impacts of unilateral trade measures like the EU's CBAM, and mobilize private capital through sustainable finance taxonomies.