Boom and Bust Coal 2026

In 2025, global coal capacity grew by 3.5% while generation fell by 0.6%, a divergence driven primarily by China and India. While new commissioning reached near-record levels of 97.4 GW, coal is increasingly used as 'system insurance' rather than a primary energy source. The global pipeline is narrowing geographically, with only 32 countries proposing or building new plants in 2025, and 95% of all construction concentrated in China and India. Meanwhile, the U.S. and EU saw significant delays in planned retirements, though for different reasons: federal emergency orders in the U.S. and energy security concerns in the EU. Latin America reached 'No New Coal' status in 2025, while South Korea committed to a phaseout by 2040.

• In 2025, there was a widening disconnect between coal capacity and actual use; global coal capacity increased by 3.5% while coal-fired generation declined by 0.6%.
• China and India are the primary drivers of global coal expansion, accounting for 95% of all coal plant construction globally in 2025.
• China's coal sector is characterized by contradictory signals: it recorded a record high of 161.7 GW in new and reactivated proposals in 2025, yet coal-fired electricity generation declined by 1.2%.
• India's non-fossil power capacity surpassed 50% of total installed capacity for the first time in 2025, even as the government increased its coal expansion target to 100 GW over the next seven years.
• Global coal retirements slowed significantly in 2025, with nearly 70% of scheduled units failing to retire. In the U.S., 59% of scheduled retirements were missed, often due to federal "emergency" orders.
• The number of countries pursuing new coal development is shrinking, falling from 75 in 2014 to 32 in 2025. Latin America achieved 'No New Coal' status in 2025 after Brazil shelved its final proposed projects.
• Indonesia's coal growth is heavily driven by 'captive' power for industrial processing, with 20 GW of operating captive capacity by the end of 2025, largely serving the nickel and aluminum industries.
• South Korea pledged to phase out coal power by 2040 and joined the Powering Past Coal Alliance in late 2025, marking a shift away from previous strategies focused on ammonia co-firing.
• In the U.S., coal generation rose by 13% in 2025, making it the only major economy to see a significant increase, driven by a policy shift that curtailed clean energy deployment and sustained aging plants.

APA

Trend Asia (2026). Boom and Bust Coal 2026. https://trendasia.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Boom-and-Bust-Coal-2026.pdf

Chicago

Trend Asia. Boom and Bust Coal 2026. 2026. https://trendasia.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Boom-and-Bust-Coal-2026.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Trend Asia |title=Boom and Bust Coal 2026 |date=2026 |url=https://trendasia.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Boom-and-Bust-Coal-2026.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{trendasia2026boom, author = {{Trend Asia}}, title = {{Boom and Bust Coal 2026}}, institution = {Trend Asia}, year = {2026}, url = {https://trendasia.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Boom-and-Bust-Coal-2026.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }