Last chance to shore up EU’s 2040 climate target

Carbon Market Watch criticizes the EU's proposed 2040 climate target for relying on international carbon credits and including 'flexibilities' that weaken domestic ambition. The author calls for a strict domestic emissions reduction target, the exclusion of credits from the EU ETS, and the prevention of delays to the ETS2 system for buildings and road transport. The document also warns against using natural disturbances in forestry as a justification to lower overall climate targets.

• The EU's current agreement sets a domestic emissions reduction target of 85%, which only reaches a binding 90% by utilizing international carbon credits. This is lower than the 90% to 95% domestic range recommended by the EU's official scientific advisors.
• The reliance on international credits instead of a fully domestic target could result in EU emissions being 50% higher and cost up to €48.9 billion, according to Carbon Market Watch calculations.
• The European Parliament has proposed quality principles for international credits, including requirements for high environmental integrity, transparent governance, and human rights safeguards, though the author argues these should be enforceable demands exceeding Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement.
• There is a risk that the EU's carbon pricing framework will be weakened by slowing the phase-out of free allocations for industry, which could depress revenue for the proposed €100 billion Industrial Decarbonisation Bank.
• The Council and Parliament have agreed to delay the start of the Emissions Trading System for road transport and buildings (ETS2) by one year, which may result in a loss of approximately €50 billion in auctioning revenue and potentially impact the Social Climate Fund.
• Member states and the Parliament have proposed adjusting the 2040 target based on shortfalls in the land use and forestry sector due to natural disturbances. The author contends that unsustainable forestry models, rather than natural disturbances, are the primary driver of the decline in Europe's natural carbon sinks.

APA

De Simone, F. (2025). Last chance to shore up EU’s 2040 climate target. Carbon Market Watch. https://carbonmarketwatch.org/2025/11/20/last-chance-to-shore-up-eus-2040-climate-target/

Chicago

De Simone, Fabiola. Last chance to shore up EU’s 2040 climate target. Carbon Market Watch, 2025. https://carbonmarketwatch.org/2025/11/20/last-chance-to-shore-up-eus-2040-climate-target/.

Wikipedia

{{cite press release |last1=De Simone |first1=Fabiola |title=Last chance to shore up EU’s 2040 climate target |publisher=Carbon Market Watch |date=20 November 2025 |url=https://carbonmarketwatch.org/2025/11/20/last-chance-to-shore-up-eus-2040-climate-target/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@misc{desimone2025last, author = {De Simone, Fabiola}, title = {{Last chance to shore up EU’s 2040 climate target}}, publisher = {Carbon Market Watch}, year = {2025}, month = nov, url = {https://carbonmarketwatch.org/2025/11/20/last-chance-to-shore-up-eus-2040-climate-target/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }