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The Climate Action Tracker reports that global warming projections have remained stagnant at 2.6°C for four consecutive years due to a lack of ambitious 2030 and 2035 climate targets. While the Paris Agreement has helped reduce projected warming from 3.6°C in 2015 to 2.6°C today, and renewable energy surpassed coal in electricity generation in 2025, continued fossil fuel expansion and policy rollbacks in the United States threaten to offset these gains. The gap between current targets and the 1.5°C pathway is expected to increase to 31 GtCO₂e by 2035.

The authors argue that the UN climate process is outdated and allows powerful countries and polluting industries to block ambition. They propose four key reforms: implementing majority voting when consensus fails, enforcing strict conflict-of-interest rules to exclude fossil fuel lobbyists, establishing meaningful accountability and compliance mechanisms for state commitments, and guaranteeing human rights and transparency in negotiations.

COP30 in Belém, Brazil, is positioned as a critical inflection point for the global climate regime, occurring ten years after the Paris Agreement. The briefing highlights a tension between the summit's goals and local environmental degradation, such as the construction of the Avenida Liberdade expressway through a rainforest protection area and Brazil's pursuit of oil exploration in the Equatorial Margin. Key negotiation priorities include updated NDCs, the operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund, and a new collective quantified goal for climate finance estimated at USD 1.3 trillion per year by 2035. The document also underscores the influence of non-state actors, such as YOUNGO and the Women and Gender Constituency, and argues that recent advisory opinions from the ICJ and IACHR have transformed climate action from a political choice into a binding legal responsibility for states.

Plan 1.5 argues that the South Korean government's 2035 NDC, set at 53-61% below 2018 levels, is inadequate because the 'practical' lower bound of 53% is driven by industrial interests rather than scientific necessity. The organization highlights that the industrial sector's reduction target of 24.3% is significantly lower than those of comparable manufacturing nations like Japan and Germany. The statement calls on the National Assembly to revise long-term reduction paths to protect future generations and avoid potential legal liabilities under international law.

The document details the three main priorities for COP30 in Belém: closing the ambition gap for 2035 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to limit warming to 1.5ºC, mobilizing $1.3 trillion annually for developing countries by 2035, and concluding the global adaptation indicators program. It also highlights the launch of the Tropical Forest Forever Fund (TFFF) led by Brazil to protect forests through innovative financing, and a broader global action agenda focusing on renewable energy, just transition, and urban resilience.

The study finds significant priority divergence between African climate plans (NDCs) and development plans (NDPs), noting that NDCs are often externally driven by international financing and environment ministries, while NDPs are domestically coordinated by economic planning ministries. This disconnect leads to energy transition strategies that may lack pragmatism and overlook economic performance metrics like reliability and affordability. The report recommends establishing inter-ministerial committees and increasing local technical capacity to integrate these frameworks, ensuring climate action supports poverty reduction and economic growth.

The document identifies a significant divergence between climate and development policy in Africa, noting that NDCs focus on sectoral mitigation while NDPs prioritize economic growth and poverty alleviation. It warns that aggressive energy transitions to reach net-zero by 2050 could reduce cropland availability by 31%, potentially undermining the agricultural sector which employs 60% of the continent's workforce. Financially, the brief highlights a massive gap, with climate finance requirements for Africa projected at $2.7 trillion by 2030, nearly equaling the continental GDP.

Clean Air Task Force (CATF) outlines its priorities for COP30, advocating for 'pragmatic climate action' that integrates decarbonization with socioeconomic development. The statement highlights a disconnect between African nations' climate commitments and their development plans, while urging immediate action on methane emissions from agriculture, fossil fuels, and waste. CATF promotes a diverse technology suite, including nuclear and geothermal energy, to ensure energy security and economic viability across different regional contexts.

The report finds that while total emissions from 25 major emitters may peak by 2026, current policies are insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C goal. Fifteen countries are likely on track to meet their 2030 unconditional NDC targets, while nine are off track, including the US, UK, and Japan. Projections for the US have worsened due to policy rollbacks, and eight countries are already projected to miss their 2035 unconditional NDC targets.

Plan 1.5 criticizes the South Korean government's proposed 2035 NDC targets of 50-60% and 53-60% reductions compared to 2018 levels, labeling them unconstitutional. The organization argues these targets lack scientific basis, ignore the country's fair share of global emissions reductions (estimated at 65%), and unfairly shift the burden of climate action to future generations by prioritizing short-term industrial interests.

National renewable energy targets for 2030 have increased by only 8% since COP28, rising from 7,238 GW to 7,793 GW. This trajectory aligns with a doubling of capacity rather than the tripling goal. While solar deployment is outstripping political ambition—with national targets at 3,110 GW despite forecasts exceeding 5,700 GW—wind targets and forecasts are more aligned but both remain below the 2,742 GW required for a global tripling.

Indonesia's coal industry has seen significant growth, leading to a surge in coal mine methane (CMM) emissions that are largely underreported by the government and industry. Ember estimates 2024 CMM emissions at 722 kt CH4, far exceeding the official figure of 168 kt CH4. This discrepancy is attributed to ineffective monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) frameworks and the exclusion of high-emission underground mines from official estimates. The report warns that the development of large underground mines, specifically one in South Kalimantan, will cause total CMM emissions to increase by approximately 25% by 2030, even if national coal production declines by 14%.

Indonesia's coal sector is facing a downturn as production records in 2024 are met with declining export demand from China and India and rising production costs. This oversupply has eroded company profits and state non-tax revenues. Simultaneously, coal mine methane (CMM) emissions are significantly underreported and are projected to rise by 25% by 2030, driven by the expansion of underground mining in South Kalimantan. The report recommends a moratorium on new mines, improved methane monitoring, and a just transition framework for coal-dependent regions.

Global renewable capacity additions are forecast to reach a record 793 GW in 2025, driven largely by solar and China's deployment. While the actual annual growth rate of additions from 2023 to 2025 (29%) has exceeded the 21% required to triple capacity by 2030, IEA forecasts suggest a potential 15% shortfall in capacity and a 28% shortfall in generation by 2030, primarily due to lags in wind and hydro. National targets remain insufficient, aiming for just over a doubling of capacity (7,793 GW) rather than a tripling, with solar targets particularly lagging behind actual deployment trends.

The document highlights the economic and legal imperatives for South Korea to strengthen its 2035 NDC, noting strong business support for a transition to renewables and a landmark Constitutional Court ruling requiring more robust climate targets to protect citizens' rights.

The World Resources Institute argues that COP30 must move beyond pledges to implementation by establishing a global roadmap for ambition, accelerating sectoral action for 2030 goals, and mobilizing long-term net-zero strategies. It emphasizes the need for G20 leadership in aligning near-term goals with long-term transitions and calls for a credible finance package, including the Baku-to-Belém Roadmap and country platforms, to unlock capital for developing nations.

The report examines how Brazil's agribusiness sector, despite being the country's largest climate polluter, maintains a privileged position through lobbying and 'corporate capture'. It highlights the omission of agricultural methane from Brazil's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and warns that industry-led efforts at COP30, such as the 'AgriZone', aim to position the sector as a climate solution while resisting meaningful regulation.

RMI highlights the transition from climate commitments to action across several global regions. China is leading in renewable deployment and clean tech exports, while Brazil focuses on low-carbon shipping and ambitious NDCs as the COP30 host. India is pursuing energy independence by 2047 through clean mobility and cooling innovations. Southeast Asia is scaling clean infrastructure and battery storage, and the United States continues to see subnational progress in grid optimization and clean industrialization despite federal delegation concerns.

The document outlines three critical areas for action at COP 30 to ensure the global transition away from fossil fuels remains viable: phasing out fossil fuel subsidies and public finance, closing the ambition gap in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), and evolving the Just Transition Work Programme (JTWP) into a practical support mechanism. It highlights a significant gap between current production plans and the 1.5°C target, noting that current plans would see fossil fuel extraction increase by over 120% by 2030. The briefing also emphasizes the need for gender-responsive approaches to ensure the energy transition is inclusive and equitable.

The July 2025 ICJ Advisory Opinion affirms that states have a legal obligation to prevent significant environmental damage and provide financial support to developing countries, a duty embedded in customary international law. The brief argues that this ruling provides a legal foundation for reparative justice—including restitution and compensation—and reinforces the principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC). It highlights that while the Baku to Belém (B2B) Roadmap aims for US$1.3 trillion annually by 2035, it currently lacks binding targets and transparency. The document urges that COP30 use the ruling to ensure developed countries lead in delivering at least US$300 billion per year by 2035, primarily through grants and concessional resources, to support ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the Global Goal on Adaptation.