National targets still aim for a doubling instead of a tripling

National renewable energy targets for 2030 have increased by only 8% since COP28, rising from 7,238 GW to 7,793 GW. This trajectory aligns with a doubling of capacity rather than the tripling goal. While solar deployment is outstripping political ambition—with national targets at 3,110 GW despite forecasts exceeding 5,700 GW—wind targets and forecasts are more aligned but both remain below the 2,742 GW required for a global tripling.

• Aggregate national 2030 renewables capacity targets have increased by only 8% since COP28, moving from 7,238 GW to 7,793 GW, which indicates that national ambition is aligned with a doubling of capacity rather than a tripling.
• The recent increase in targets is primarily driven by China, which saw an increase of 779 GW based on a derived 2030 target of 2,604 GW. This was partially offset by a 197 GW decrease in the US target.
• The US implicit national target was lowered to 741 GW to reflect political changes, including the early 2025 revocation of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) and the introduction of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act to phase out renewable tax credits.
• National solar targets are significantly lower than both the 6,101 GW required for a global tripling and the forecasts from the IEA, BNEF, and Solar Power Europe, which range from 5,706 GW to 7,000 GW.
• National wind targets are projected to reach 2,223 GW by 2030, which aligns with IEA, BNEF, and GWEC forecasts but falls short of the 2,742 GW needed to achieve a global tripling of renewables.

APA

Ember (2025). National targets still aim for a doubling instead of a tripling. https://ember-energy.org/chapter/national-targets-still-aim-for-a-doubling-instead-of-a-tripling/

Chicago

Ember. National targets still aim for a doubling instead of a tripling. 2025. https://ember-energy.org/chapter/national-targets-still-aim-for-a-doubling-instead-of-a-tripling/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Ember |title=National targets still aim for a doubling instead of a tripling |date=6 November 2025 |url=https://ember-energy.org/chapter/national-targets-still-aim-for-a-doubling-instead-of-a-tripling/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ember2025national, author = {{Ember}}, title = {{National targets still aim for a doubling instead of a tripling}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2025}, month = nov, url = {https://ember-energy.org/chapter/national-targets-still-aim-for-a-doubling-instead-of-a-tripling/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }