What’s at Stake for Transition Away From Fossil Fuels at COP 30

The document outlines three critical areas for action at COP 30 to ensure the global transition away from fossil fuels remains viable: phasing out fossil fuel subsidies and public finance, closing the ambition gap in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), and evolving the Just Transition Work Programme (JTWP) into a practical support mechanism. It highlights a significant gap between current production plans and the 1.5°C target, noting that current plans would see fossil fuel extraction increase by over 120% by 2030. The briefing also emphasizes the need for gender-responsive approaches to ensure the energy transition is inclusive and equitable.

• Current global fossil fuel production plans are inconsistent with climate goals, projecting extraction levels over 120% higher by 2030 than what is required to limit warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
• There is a severe ambition gap in the third generation of NDCs; a synthesis report from October 2025 indicates that new NDCs would only reduce emissions by 17% by 2035 compared to 2019, whereas a 60% reduction is needed for the 1.5°C pathway.
• Fossil fuel subsidies remain a significant barrier to climate finance, with Annex II countries to the UNFCCC accounting for USD 378 billion in such subsidies in 2023.
• The Just Transition Work Programme (JTWP) needs to move beyond a dialogue forum to become a mechanism that coordinates global initiatives and provides direct support to countries, especially in the Global South, for implementing transition strategies.

APA

Jones, N., Kuehl, J., & Sharma, S. (2025). What’s at Stake for Transition Away From Fossil Fuels at COP 30. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/articles/insight/whats-stake-transition-away-fossil-fuels-cop-30

Chicago

Jones, Natalie, Jonas Kuehl, and Shruti Sharma. What’s at Stake for Transition Away From Fossil Fuels at COP 30. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2025. https://www.iisd.org/articles/insight/whats-stake-transition-away-fossil-fuels-cop-30.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Jones |first1=Natalie |last2=Kuehl |first2=Jonas |last3=Sharma |first3=Shruti |title=What’s at Stake for Transition Away From Fossil Fuels at COP 30 |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=3 November 2025 |url=https://www.iisd.org/articles/insight/whats-stake-transition-away-fossil-fuels-cop-30 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{jones2025whats, author = {Jones, Natalie and Kuehl, Jonas and Sharma, Shruti}, title = {{What’s at Stake for Transition Away From Fossil Fuels at COP 30}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2025}, month = nov, url = {https://www.iisd.org/articles/insight/whats-stake-transition-away-fossil-fuels-cop-30}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }