What’s at Stake for Transition Away From Fossil Fuels at COP 30

This briefing by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) argues that the commitment made at COP 28 to transition away from fossil fuels is currently failing, with production plans exceeding 1.5°C limits. It identifies COP 30 in Belém as a critical juncture for governments to align financial flows, increase the ambition of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), and operationalize the Just Transition Work Programme (JTWP).

• Current global fossil fuel production plans are inconsistent with the 1.5°C warming limit, with projections suggesting extraction will be over 120% higher by 2030 than what is compatible with that target. Furthermore, a July 2025 advisory opinion from the International Court of Justice stated that expanding fossil fuels, including through subsidies, may breach international law.
• There is a significant ambition gap in the third generation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). An October 2025 synthesis report found that new NDCs would only reduce emissions by 17% by 2035 compared to 2019 levels, far below the 60% reduction required for the 1.5°C target. Only 22% of submitted NDCs include domestic targets or policies for the energy transition, and only four countries have included specific measures to transition away from fossil fuel production.
• The briefing calls for the phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies and public finance, noting that Annex II countries to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change provided USD 378 billion in fossil fuel subsidies in 2023. It suggests using the 'Baku to Belém Roadmap' to redirect these funds toward climate finance, aiming for at least USD 1.3 trillion annually by 2035.
• The Just Transition Work Programme (JTWP) needs to evolve from a dialogue forum into a coordinating mechanism that provides direct support to countries, especially in the Global South. While COP 29 ended without agreement on next steps, June 2025 negotiations in Bonn showed progress toward a vision of just transition incorporating human rights, gender equality, and universal clean energy access.

APA

Jones, N., Kuehl, J., & Sharma, S. (2025). What’s at Stake for Transition Away From Fossil Fuels at COP 30. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/articles/insight/whats-stake-transition-away-fossil-fuels-cop-30

Chicago

Jones, Natalie, Jonas Kuehl, and Shruti Sharma. What’s at Stake for Transition Away From Fossil Fuels at COP 30. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2025. https://www.iisd.org/articles/insight/whats-stake-transition-away-fossil-fuels-cop-30.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Jones |first1=Natalie |last2=Kuehl |first2=Jonas |last3=Sharma |first3=Shruti |title=What’s at Stake for Transition Away From Fossil Fuels at COP 30 |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=3 November 2025 |url=https://www.iisd.org/articles/insight/whats-stake-transition-away-fossil-fuels-cop-30 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{jones2025whats, author = {Jones, Natalie and Kuehl, Jonas and Sharma, Shruti}, title = {{What’s at Stake for Transition Away From Fossil Fuels at COP 30}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2025}, month = nov, url = {https://www.iisd.org/articles/insight/whats-stake-transition-away-fossil-fuels-cop-30}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }