Little change in warming outlook now for four years

The Climate Action Tracker reports that global warming projections have remained stagnant at 2.6°C for four consecutive years due to a lack of ambitious 2030 and 2035 climate targets. While the Paris Agreement has helped reduce projected warming from 3.6°C in 2015 to 2.6°C today, and renewable energy surpassed coal in electricity generation in 2025, continued fossil fuel expansion and policy rollbacks in the United States threaten to offset these gains. The gap between current targets and the 1.5°C pathway is expected to increase to 31 GtCO₂e by 2035.

• Global warming projections have shown little to no measurable progress for four years, with the projection for the "2030 and 2035 targets" scenario remaining at 2.6°C.
• The emissions gap between current climate targets and the 1.5°C pathway is projected to widen from 29 GtCO₂e in 2030 to 31 GtCO₂e by 2035, an increase of approximately 2 billion tonnes of CO₂e.
• While the Paris Agreement has contributed to reducing projected warming by roughly 1°C since 2015—dropping from 3.6°C to 2.6°C—current 2035 NDCs have not significantly altered the trajectory toward 1.5°C.
• In 2025, renewable energy generated more electricity globally than coal for the first time, although this progress is threatened by the ongoing expansion of fossil fuel production and consumption.
• The United States has weakened global climate progress by rolling back climate policies, while major emitters like China and the EU have not proposed targets that significantly shift their current course.

APA

NewClimate Institute (2025). Little change in warming outlook now for four years. http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/climate-action-tracker-briefing-little-change-in-warming-outlook

Chicago

NewClimate Institute. Little change in warming outlook now for four years. 2025. http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/climate-action-tracker-briefing-little-change-in-warming-outlook.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=NewClimate Institute |title=Little change in warming outlook now for four years |date=13 November 2025 |url=http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/climate-action-tracker-briefing-little-change-in-warming-outlook |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{newclimateinstitute2025little, author = {{NewClimate Institute}}, title = {{Little change in warming outlook now for four years}}, institution = {NewClimate Institute}, year = {2025}, month = nov, url = {http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/climate-action-tracker-briefing-little-change-in-warming-outlook}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }